Avg winning mutuel: Weekdays v Weekends

[PhantomOnTour]

I have often wondered if the avg winning price on weekdays is different from weekends, when there is presumably "better racing" and more folks playing.

I am only interested in major tracks...
SAR - BEL - GP - CD - KEE - SA - DMR - FG

Anyone ever done a study/query of this?
Thx

[Ocala Mike]

My "feel" for this is that the single biggest correlation regarding avg. winning mutuels is avg. field size. If there were a correlation to the calendar, I still believe it would be explainable by the number of runners on those days.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

My "feel" for this is that the single biggest correlation regarding avg. winning mutuels is avg. field size. If there were a correlation to the calendar, I still believe it would be explainable by the number of runners on those days.

I have to agree with that after many years of banging away on data bases and just plain observation. However, I've also noticed (but haven't analyzed yet) that after two or more days between race days, it "seems" that there are more long shot win payoffs on the first day back. If this proves true, maybe it's due to track maintenance or maybe even to jockey "rust", a new term

[bks]

Very interesting idea. I know that in poker circles, weekends are regarded as easier pickings since more recreational money is in play. Would the same theory would hold for racing?

[thespaah]

Weekends at SAR, KEE and DMR see more 'recreational money'..
I have always maintained that the pencils at Saratoga are not quite as sharp as they are Downstate.
Although, 2013 at SAR the percentage of winning favorites was like 35%

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I have often wondered if the avg winning price on weekdays is different from weekends, when there is presumably "better racing" and more folks playing.

I am only interested in major tracks...
SAR - BEL - GP - CD - KEE - SA - DMR - FG

Anyone ever done a study/query of this?
Thx

Well.....I went ahead and did a sample chart.
Here's my methodology.
I used each track in your list. I used one week of each meeting.
To make it sort of fair, I used weeks when I thought each track would have been reasonably busy.
I did a simple excell spreadsheet
Here's the key
Date is the first day of the race week. I used weeks when there was racing on both Saturday and Sunday.
I used Pct winning favs. Pact In the money favs..Then you'll note a "WE" column. That indicates the same percentages on weekends.
Days represents the number of racing days in the week. Perf. represents the number of races that week.
Track week days/perf pct win fav pct fav ITM WE win WE ITM
SAR 8/4/2010 6days 62 27.4 62.9 31.8 68.1
GP 3/23/2013 5days 55 30.9 69 32 72
BEL 5/25/2014 5days 47 36.1 70.2 36.8 73.6
CD 5/13/2014 4days 39 28.2 71.7 25 60
KEE 4/6/2014 5days 48 22.9 62.5 23.8 52.3
DMR 8/4/2014 5days 43 39.5 65.1 42.1 63.1
FG 3/23/2014 5days 50 34 84 42.1 78.9

Sorry about the mess. For some reason this file was a ".xlsx" instead of a .xls
I don't know why this is. PA does not accept .xlsx files.
For clarity ....The first entry is SAR The week I used begins Aug 4th 2013
They raced 6 days and 62 races. Favs won 27.4% and ITM 62.9%
For the weekend days Favs won 31.8% and were ITM 68.1%
I hope this makes sense.

[Dave Schwartz]

I actually looked at this a long while back. This is from memory (and it could be faulty)...

1. The win pct of favs goes UP during the week because the races are less competitive.

2. The win pct of low odds horses (i.e. 3/1 and below) goes UP on weekends because the races are more competitive, but the winners are concentrated on the low 3 choices.

In other words, it is counter intuitive to what people would think.

[Milkshaker]

Intriguing question.

I see the post was originally about "major" tracks, but what about the opposite--i.e., a "minor" track that handles very little on a Saturday but because of a paucity of competition on a Tuesday, sees handle balloon to $1 mil+.

My guess is this would be where the long-term value would be if you beleived you had an edge by knowing the smaller circuit.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Well.....I went ahead and did a sample chart. ...

KEE 4/6/2014 5days 48 22.9 62.5 23.8 52.3 ...

I hope this makes sense.

Very clear, I think. Can you provide more data on Kee? Not the entire meet just a few more weeks. How long is their meet? What is the meet time frame?

Thanks.

[thaskalos]

I would wager heavily that the average winning mutuel is a lot smaller during the weekdays...because that's when the 6-horse fields dominate the racing cards.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I would wager heavily that the average winning mutuel is a lot smaller during the weekdays...because that's when the 6-horse fields dominate the racing cards.

Pretty much what I said, only perhaps stated a little better.

[rastajenk]

I question the premise that there are more short fields on weekdays, therefore I have to question the conclusion of Mike and thask. Also, Dave S mentioned that weeday racing is less competitive; that seems kind of subjective, how would that observation be quantified?

[classhandicapper]

I think it might be pretty hard to control for quality of horses, field size, surface, etc.. to isolate whether it's harder or easier to win on weekends or at some specific meets unless you have large database and some very good knowledge of statistics. Intuitively and based on empirical evidence, I think I do way better on weekends, at Saratoga, and on big race days (when there is a lot of recreational money) than I do when it's all the hard core players going head to head.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Very clear, I think. Can you provide more data on Kee? Not the entire meet just a few more weeks. How long is their meet? What is the meet time frame?

Thanks.

Keeneland's meet are typically around 20 -22 race dates.
It's late now, but since I enjoy compiling stats, when I get a little time I can get the other 15 or so days. It's really no effort.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think it might be pretty hard to control for quality of horses, field size, surface, etc.. to isolate whether it's harder or easier to win on weekends or at some specific meets unless you have large database and some very good knowledge of statistics. Intuitively and based on empirical evidence, I think I do way better on weekends, at Saratoga, and on big race days (when there is a lot of recreational money) than I do when it's all the hard core players going head to head.

Here's the rub....Statistics can be compiled in such a way or in many ways to produce a predetermine outcome.
What seems to be happening here is some of posters here want to go deep into the study of percentages that one can wind up lost in a thicket of wild blackberries.
To compile the stats is certainly doable. It would take time.
You guys have to decide what it is you want to study.