BC Dirt Mile

[Redboard]

LADBROKES 10/30/16
Dortmund (E 7) 4/5
Runhappy (E/P 8) 5/1
Gun Runner (P 3) 5/1
Tamarkuz (E/P 4) 8/1
Vyjack (S 3) 10/1
Tom's Ready (S 1) 10/1
Texas Chrome (E/P 5) 14/1
Accelerate(E/P 5) 20/1
Point Piper (E/P 4) 20/1
War Story(E/P 2) – can’t believe they’d run him in the classic.
Midnight Storm(E8) – will probably opt for the turf mile, although would be very interesting here.

I still believe this is going to be a good betting race, much better than the classic. I wouldn’t call the field “strong” but you have a weak favorite, who’s going to be over bet, with a bunch of 5/1 – 10/1’s. What more can you ask for?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that if Gun Runner won, they’d give him the 3YrOld eclipse award. (if Arrogate bombs in the BCC)

[holmmd]

I don't get why people view Dortmund as a weak favorite. All's he done is lost to the possible the best dirt horse in the world the past few times out. This is his race to lose imo.

[the little guy]

Dortmund doesn't look like a weak favorite to me. I think he's the most likely winner over both days.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by holmmd

I don't get why people view Dortmund as a weak favorite. All's he done is lost to the possible the best dirt horse in the world the past few times out. This is his race to lose imo.

Agreed, Dortmund will be tough. But for the BC Mile I think its a pretty deep field. A couple of these wanted no part of the Classic so its a pretty good field IMO. Plus being "home" is a definite edge for him. I wouldn't call him weak chalk but 4-5 is a little much. The way these races run many times 4-5 is a bad bet. Not my cup of tea when I know there will be a couple of box cars.

[Redboard]

Connections of Dortmund have already said that they are gunning for the lead.

[Robert Fischer]

I agree that Dortmund is beatable. He's a hard hitter, but he's never been able to relax.


Having trouble coming up with a rival to Dortmund that I feel is a strong win contender.

What's the story with Runhappy? His 'A' form probably wins this.

Tamarkuz is a classy pro. He kind of runs his 'bridesmaid race', but if enough heads knock up front, he could potentially benefit.

Gun Runner ran a nice race in Philly. I've never had him among the division leaders at any point, but he is good, and may be improving.

Vyjack is a fun horse to see here. He had an absolute dream trip/pace-collapse last time to win. Has to be a fun 'project' for D'Amato. Been a fan since his Rudy days.

Accelerate may not be up to this class. He's very game.

[reckless]

I am singling Dortmund in all my horizontal bets.

I'll make exactas and trifectas with both Tamarkuz and Vyjack. Both have good current form and will be much better prices than Runhappy and Gun Runner.

[Garyinseattle]

Originally Posted by Redboard

LADBROKES 10/30/16
Dortmund (E 7) 4/5
Runhappy (E/P 8) 5/1
Gun Runner (P 3) 5/1
Tamarkuz (E/P 4) 8/1
Vyjack (S 3) 10/1
Tom's Ready (S 1) 10/1
Texas Chrome (E/P 5) 14/1
Accelerate(E/P 5) 20/1
Point Piper (E/P 4) 20/1
War Story(E/P 2) – can’t believe they’d run him in the classic.
Midnight Storm(E8) – will probably opt for the turf mile, although would be very interesting here.

I still believe this is going to be a good betting race, much better than the classic. I wouldn’t call the field “strong” but you have a weak favorite, who’s going to be over bet, with a bunch of 5/1 – 10/1’s. What more can you ask for?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that if Gun Runner won, they’d give him the 3YrOld eclipse award. (if Arrogate bombs in the BCC)

Gun Runner wins 3yr old eclipse based on a win here and the Louisiana Derby ?

You serious ?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I agree that Dortmund is beatable. He's a hard hitter, but he's never been able to relax.


Having trouble coming up with a rival to Dortmund that I feel is a strong win contender.

What's the story with Runhappy? His 'A' form probably wins this.

Tamarkuz is a classy pro. He kind of runs his 'bridesmaid race', but if enough heads knock up front, he could potentially benefit.

Gun Runner ran a nice race in Philly. I've never had him among the division leaders at any point, but he is good, and may be improving.

Vyjack is a fun horse to see here. He had an absolute dream trip/pace-collapse last time to win. Has to be a fun 'project' for D'Amato. Been a fan since his Rudy days.

Accelerate may not be up to this class. He's very game.

Dortmund is the horse to beat. If he is unable to relax like the day he ran against Chrome. he wins for fun.
As much as I'd like Runhappy to win, he is sadly not the same horse he was last year. He was rushed back after being laid up for almost a year and his poor finish in the Ack Ack proved it.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by holmmd

I don't get why people view Dortmund as a weak favorite. All's he done is lost to the possible the best dirt horse in the world the past few times out. This is his race to lose imo.

Dortmund is over bet everytime he runs...he might win but how can you trust him? He's 2 for his last 7 since his Santa anita derby win in 2015 after starting his career 6 for 6....if you look at his 8 career wins who was his toughest competition? Firing Line, Mr Z, Imperative? So yea he put up big figs in match races with Chrome but has he ever beaten a top class horse at any point in his career?
I'm using VyJack, Tom's Ready, Gun Runner, and Dortmund in this race defensively and hoping to survive.

[andtheyreoff]

Originally Posted by Garyinseattle

Gun Runner wins 3yr old eclipse based on a win here and the Louisiana Derby ?

You serious ?

No way would he win it. Exaggerator has three grade 1 wins this year. Under Redboard's scenario. Gun Runner would have one grade 1 win. Not happening.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Accelerate may not be up to this class. He's very game.

That's exactly how I view Texas Chrome. I think he's probably outclassed here, but he gives 100% every time. I thought his Oklahoma Derby win was impressive, coming just 14 days after winning the Super Derby.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Dortmund is the horse to beat. If he is unable to relax like the day he ran against Chrome. he wins for fun.
As much as I'd like Runhappy to win, he is sadly not the same horse he was last year. He was rushed back after being laid up for almost a year and his poor finish in the Ack Ack proved it.

The "horse to beat tag" is just that.

The and know they can't win by giving Dorty the lead.

Pace will be hot. Is Dorty good enough to fend off Vyjack, or Toms Ready, and/or Texas Chrome after a 1:08 and change contested 6Fs? Can he chase and win if not THE front end?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Connections of Dortmund have already said that they are gunning for the lead.

He couldn't even come to close to keeping up with CA Chrome when he tried (who admittedly is deceptively quick when asked). There's no way he can stay with Runhappy. He's going to have to be satisfied sitting 2nd and hoping that there's no speed bias to carry Runhappy. He can go get him on the turn.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He couldn't even come to close to keeping up with CA Chrome when he tried (who admittedly is deceptively quick when asked). There's no way he can stay with Runhappy. He's going to have to be satisfied sitting 2nd and hoping that there's no speed bias to carry Runhappy. He can go get him on the turn.

Again with the bogus speed biases. Crazy early speed is a disadvantage on any speed surface.
So-called speed bias or not, Runhappy is no longer the horse he was last year regardless of pace and especially regardless of mythical speed biased surface.