The Oaks Thread

[FlyinLate]

As good as Untapable looks, and as difficult as she is going to be beat, I'm not going to take the likely 4/5 she will offer.

Ria and Rosalind are the two I'm looking at to have a chance to run her down.

[wa_kiwi]

Are there only 13 going to the post? Since In Tune dropped out, Empress of Midway was added, but I've heard nothing about who's next in line. Confused.

[Tall One]

Rosalind, my choice as well, worked 4F in :49 4/5 at CD this morning.

29th of 66.

[holmmd]

Maintenance work. Last time she went too fast.

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by holmmd

Maintenance work. Last time she went too fast.

Agreed.

That Keeneland work says a lot, imo. She didn't need anything else.

[tanner12oz]

1. Please Explain, Lezcano/Proctor, 50-1

2. Ria Antonia, Smith/Baffert, 10-1

3. Sugar Shock, Borel/Anderson, 12-1

4. Rosalind, Rosario/McPeek, 8-1

5. Thank You Marylou, Leparoux/Maker, 30-1

6. Kiss Moon, Espinoza/Vance, 30-1

7. Fashion Plate, Stevens/Callaghan, 6-1

8. Aurelia's Belle, Hill/Catalano, 50-1

9. Unbridled Forever, Bridgmohan/Stewart, 12-1

10. Empress of Midway, Nakatani/O'Neill, 50-1

11. My Miss Sophia, Castellano/Pletcher, 8-1

12. Got Lucky, Velazquez/Pletcher, 20-1

13. Untapable, Napravnik/Asmussen, 4-5

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by holmmd

Rosalind. Pace sets up in her favor and so does added distance.

Agree.

Just noticed this thread after I posted a new thread minutes ago (now deleted).

Kentucky Oaks post positions are out.

1—Please Explain, Jose Lezcano, 50-1
2—Ria Antonia, Mike Smith, 10-1
3—Sugar Shock, Calvin Borel, 12-1
4—Rosalind, Joel Rosario, 8-1
5—Thank You Marylou, Julien Leparoux, 30-1
6—Kiss Moon, Victor Espinoza, 30-1
7—Fashion Plate, Gary Stevens, 6-1
8—Aurelia's Belle, Channing Hill, 50-1
9—Unbridled Forever, Robby Albarado, 12-1
10—Empress of Midway, Corey Nakatani, 50-1
11—My Miss Sophia, Javier Castellano, 8-1
12—Got Lucky, John Velazquez, 20-1
13—Untapable, Rosie Napravnik, 4-5

If the Track Condition is FAST, then the analysis below should hold well.

>> While Untapable is definitely the one to beat, I feel that Rosalind can do very well in this race and even win it. This filly has closed off the pace on multiple occasions and has been close enough at the finish. Friday could be her day - I will take if above 6-1 or Ex box it with

Rosalind is ridden by Joel Rosario is right now the only real contender of value that I see in this field.

The other main contenders who I expect the crowd to bet on heavily would be Fashion Plate and My Miss Sophia. However, there will be at least one big longshot that I am still working on identifying and will know by Wed night .

[Leparoux]

Auriela's Belle to bomb the super

[PaceAdvantage]

Big field...I'll take a shot against the chalk in this one.






Value plays:

[taxicab]

I like Aurelia's Belle quite a bit.
Don't be fooled by her Gulfstream races, she had to move much earlier in those races than she prefers due to the speed favoring oval.
Those races are much better than looked.

[sam i am]

9/13/5-1

the 5-1 should fill a nice super...at big numbers.

[Leparoux]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I like Aurelia's Belle quite a bit.
Don't be fooled by her Gulfstream races, she had to move much earlier in those races than she prefers due to the speed favoring oval.
Those races are much better than looked.

Yep she never had a chance in those races. Pletcher filly took them around wire to wire both times (shocking for GP)

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Big field...I'll take a shot against the chalk in this one.






Value plays:

Not sure how would be a value play. I think she will be below 5-1. but yes, based on the ML makers predictions, yeah MMS would be a value play. but Castellano/pletcher ..and low odds, doubt it

[KingChas]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1484318

[Tom]

Looking for these to move forward off good fig patterns, using BRIS.

Sugar Shock - like this a lot - new pace top two back, last out ran back to its previous top LP. At the odds, this one cries bet me.

Ria Antonia - almost ran back to her 2yo top last time, 3rd off a layoff....can see this one exploding.

Thank You Mary Lou - this one exploded first out this year, then ran over polycrap. Dirt races ar 87 - 98.....this one at 30-1 looks like a good one to use in the gimmicks.

Kiss Moon - not a throw out - can fill out the tri or super.

Unbridled Forever - close to matching the 2yo top, but did match the 2yo top EP, but still has room to improve the LP - Strong contender here - will get some win money from me

Untapable - triple new tops last time - EP, LP, SR. I do not like that all at once. Very vunerable in here, but still a change she is a champion on her way to the top fast - but at the odds, I will go with she is not going to improve of that last race. I will use her in some exotics, but not a key and she opens the door for a few stabs ot LS win bets.