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05-09-2014, 03:23 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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Len Friedman weighs in on CA Chrome
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-09-2014, 04:58 PM
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#2
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Screw PC
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,728
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Remind me again, what's the highest rating they've given a 3 year old, 2, 3, 4?
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Truth sounds like hate to those who hate truth.
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05-09-2014, 05:11 PM
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#3
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Pretty sure they Chrome's fastest race as a 2yo still. Personally, I find that very hard to take seriously.
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05-09-2014, 08:11 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,149
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The analysis/number seems what one would expect from them as they are purists who don't think track speed doesn't change much race to race. It is hard to prove but I think CJs and others explanation about the watering and wing, etc seem warranted but...Thorograph, which does believe in sudden changes in track speed gave a much faster number to CC, I believe I read a -3 which compares with a 2 on the Sheets (at least 5 points used to be a good way to even the difference out, not sure if it still is)
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05-09-2014, 08:52 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Pretty sure they Chrome's fastest race as a 2yo still. Personally, I find that very hard to take seriously.
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I like Len. He's been nice to me on his board even though I only purchase his product a few times a year and I've disagreed with him on some things. I understand some of his arguments about splitting variants and breaking races out, but I think his method also has downsides. This is one example. I think CC is better than he is giving him credit for, but I more or less agree with him that someone is going to run faster than this group is now at some point this year.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-09-2014, 10:07 PM
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#6
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Educated Speculation
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Where Palm Trees Sway
Posts: 914
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Thanks for posting, OP.
Len's point of view is common. So many speed Cappers are saying the Beyers are too low for a superstar to shine with a Crown win this year. Yet Chrome wins Jewel 1. So, if Len is right and this is a "Terrible Crop", then you believe that he will inevitably fail when running against a truly faster horse. Or, you think he simply runs "fast enough" to win regardless of speed figures.
We'll know soon.
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"Horse Sense" is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
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05-09-2014, 10:56 PM
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#7
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Delusional, compulsive liar and all around giant sack of shit
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 250
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I am sure that Chrome will be dialed down in the Preakness just like he has been in his five previous wins , so the critics will probably complain again that his time was not elite enough, and that's the smart thing to do . The horse has been heavily raced when compared to most of the other horses and that was before the triple crown races even started and now they are asking chrome to dance all the dances something that no other horse is going to have to do unless they decide to run back roc or arod in the Belmont.
But I have a feeling they are going to let this horse hit all gears in the Belmont and put on a real show for the fans. I think his Belmont win is going to be spectacular. I don't think Victor is going to let up on him at all. I expect a 10 length win at minimum ...
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05-10-2014, 12:00 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,701
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Scientist
I am sure that Chrome will be dialed down in the Preakness just like he has been in his five previous wins , so the critics will probably complain again that his time was not elite enough, and that's the smart thing to do . The horse has been heavily raced when compared to most of the other horses and that was before the triple crown races even started and now they are asking chrome to dance all the dances something that no other horse is going to have to do unless they decide to run back roc or arod in the Belmont.
But I have a feeling they are going to let this horse hit all gears in the Belmont and put on a real show for the fans. I think his Belmont win is going to be spectacular. I don't think Victor is going to let up on him at all. I expect a 10 length win at minimum ...
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Your handle is perfect.
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05-10-2014, 12:50 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 539
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Take a look...................???
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Pretty sure they Chrome's fastest race as a 2yo still. Personally, I find that very hard to take seriously.
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Everyone is criticizing the slow time of the Kentucky Derby.......I find that it is a blessing..........Chrome only had to go as fast as he had to........the horse has not bottom out and he has two more races to go.
I would be more concerned if he set a track record; he might have peaked too soon..........so he still has a lot left for the next two races.
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Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!
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05-10-2014, 01:09 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 605
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There is a giant hole in this story, which is that Beyer's figures are NOT uniformly poor for CC. Ragozin's figures ARE uniformly poor for CC, but Beyer gives CC very nice figures for races previous to the Derby.
If you read this story, and only this story, you would think that Beyer and Ragozin are in agreement as to this horse's overall ability - but they AREN'T.
Members of the press drive me absolutely crazy with their incompetence. . . .
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05-10-2014, 01:43 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,766
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doe Len Freedman make figures for Sha Tin?
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05-10-2014, 01:49 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Scientist
I am sure that Chrome will be dialed down in the Preakness just like he has been in his five previous wins , so the critics will probably complain again that his time was not elite enough, and that's the smart thing to do . The horse has been heavily raced when compared to most of the other horses and that was before the triple crown races even started and now they are asking chrome to dance all the dances something that no other horse is going to have to do unless they decide to run back roc or arod in the Belmont.
But I have a feeling they are going to let this horse hit all gears in the Belmont and put on a real show for the fans. I think his Belmont win is going to be spectacular. I don't think Victor is going to let up on him at all. I expect a 10 length win at minimum ...
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He sure looks like he hardly broke a sweat in his wins, should have plenty left in the tank.
This is a real special horse.
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05-10-2014, 03:18 AM
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#13
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Mike Schultz
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sinner369
Everyone is criticizing the slow time of the Kentucky Derby.......I find that it is a blessing..........Chrome only had to go as fast as he had to........the horse has not bottom out and he has two more races to go.
I would be more concerned if he set a track record; he might have peaked too soon..........so he still has a lot left for the next two races.
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On either TVG or HRTV it was reported that past Derby winners that ran a Beyer speed figure less than or equal to their prep race figures won the Preakness, with one exception and he ran 2nd.
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I attract money, I attract money...
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05-10-2014, 07:01 AM
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#14
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GARY
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,339
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California Chrome and The Preakness
Winning in a slow time may be a great story about CC having enough
fuel in the tank to be in the right spot to win the Preakness against
some of the slow opponents he trounced in the Derby, But...
looking at his early career in 2013 he had 7 starts and 3 wins on synthetic,
at distances of 4 1/2 fg,5 1/2 and 7fg.
He then was switched in 2014 to dirt, winning at 1 1/16, 1 1/16, 1 1/8 ,
and the Derby @ 1 1/4 all races previous to the Derby
took place in California.
So, he has now won 4 straight , and is pointed to a shorter distance,
tighter turns, and at this point a smaller field than the Derby. To the
general public and press, CC appears to be a lock.
While I still believe this is a great story to the general public who
think CC may finally be The Triple Crown winner, I simply
can't imagine CC to be an "iron" horse able to withstand heavy pace
pressure which he will face in the Preakness AND Belmont all within
a relatively short time span.
If, in fact he succeeds, this is a story that will turn the Breeding
industry stats and experts upside down, and maybe racing will
gain some new fans and owners..
Last edited by NY BRED; 05-10-2014 at 07:12 AM.
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05-10-2014, 10:17 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward DeVere
There is a giant hole in this story, which is that Beyer's figures are NOT uniformly poor for CC. Ragozin's figures ARE uniformly poor for CC, but Beyer gives CC very nice figures for races previous to the Derby.
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That's a good point.
In other threads I argued that this group looks just fine on the Beyer figures they earned in the major preps leading up to the Derby.
CC was above PAR.
Wicked Strong and Danza were around PAR.
Wildcat Red and General A Rod ran triple digit Beyers a race earlier.
The field looked just fine going into the race based on Beyers. It's just this controversial low figure under windy and other difficult to discern conditions that is causing the conversation.
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