TimeformUS Derby Figure

[cj]

There are many ways to interpret the race, this is the one we chose.

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/05/07...figure-review/

[Robert Fischer]

Thx CJ, that was a good read.

The figures seem very reasonable, and I think they stack up well compared to some of the other figures that I've seen on this year's Derby (Beyer, Sheets, Bris...).

Also very cool to be able to see final time and pace figures for all the runners.

[cj]

Here is some supporting work on the wind, attached. It comes from Rob Bingel, President of Equinistic, LLC. Any flaws can be attributed to the inexact data he has to work with in regards to wind speed and direction, but this leaves little doubt in my opinion that wind was a much bigger impact on final time than many people realize.

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by cj

There are many ways to interpret the race, this is the one we chose.

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/05/07...figure-review/

Thank you for an interesting article. I have a couple of questions. You gave California Chrome a rating of 113 in the the Santa Anita Derby and 110 in the Kentucky Derby. Do you consider that three point drop to be particularly significant; to be indicative of a drop in CC's performance level. Just on the numbers in does not seem to be, but maybe you have a different interpretation.

Second, you gave the race an adjusted final time of 2:01.81. I am wondering if you have calculated adjusted times for previous editions of the Derby and, if so,
how this year's running compares to previous running's.

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is some supporting work on the wind, attached. It comes from Rob Bingel, President of Equinistic, LLC. Any flaws can be attributed to the inexact data he has to work with in regards to wind speed and direction, but this leaves little doubt in my opinion that wind was a much bigger impact on final time than many people realize.

What I glean from Mr. Bingel's work is that California Chrome was hindered by the headwinds much more than he was aided by the tailwinds. To begin with he had two quarter mile segments during which he was running into the wind, (the first and last quarters of the race) and only one quarter (the third) during which he had a tailwind. But also, during those first and last quarters he was running pretty much without cover. On the other hand during that third quarter, there were several horses behind him which negated some of the benefits of the tailwind.

Does this seem a viable analysis?

[dannyhill]

There is a flaw in this IMO. Not as pertains to the Derby but for the future if and when adjusting speed figures for wind. If the goal is for a performance figure.
The adjustment is larger when running a slower quarter into the wind it says.
23.00 quarter was .60 second adjustment
26.00 quarter was .80 second adjustment
When the quarter in question is early in a race, running 23 into a wind has a larger negative affect than running 26 into the same wind on final time.
Not saying that the theory is incorrect but in reality a horse running an opening quarter of 23 into the wind will be affected more negatively in terms of final time than the horse running the 26.

Thank You for posting that Craig.

[cj]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Thank you for an interesting article. I have a couple of questions. You gave California Chrome a rating of 113 in the the Santa Anita Derby and 110 in the Kentucky Derby. Do you consider that three point drop to be particularly significant; to be indicative of a drop in CC's performance level. Just on the numbers in does not seem to be, but maybe you have a different interpretation.

Second, you gave the race an adjusted final time of 2:01.81. I am wondering if you have calculated adjusted times for previous editions of the Derby and, if so,
how this year's running compares to previous running's.

I don't really consider the 3 points significant, mostly because he lost a lot more ground than he had in previous races. We do not build that into the figures, so I think it is basically the same performance, maybe even better in Kentucky.

I'll have to check on the adjusted times. We have them for the past 11 runnings now.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

There is a flaw in this IMO. Not as pertains to the Derby but for the future if and when adjusting speed figures for wind. If the goal is for a performance figure.
The adjustment is larger when running a slower quarter into the wind it says.
23.00 quarter was .60 second adjustment
26.00 quarter was .80 second adjustment
When the quarter in question is early in a race, running 23 into a wind has a larger negative affect than running 26 into the same wind on final time.
Not saying that the theory is incorrect but in reality a horse running an opening quarter of 23 into the wind will be affected more negatively in terms of final time than the horse running the 26.

Thank You for posting that Craig.

I'm by no means saying the results are 100% accurate, just a rough guide given the information we have, which is far from precise.

[cj]

Originally Posted by mostpost

What I glean from Mr. Bingel's work is that California Chrome was hindered by the headwinds much more than he was aided by the tailwinds. To begin with he had two quarter mile segments during which he was running into the wind, (the first and last quarters of the race) and only one quarter (the third) during which he had a tailwind. But also, during those first and last quarters he was running pretty much without cover. On the other hand during that third quarter, there were several horses behind him which negated some of the benefits of the tailwind.

Does this seem a viable analysis?

Yes, pretty close. I think the tailwind is much tougher to figure out than the headwind.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm by no means saying the results are 100% accurate, just a rough guide given the information we have, which is far from precise.

Sorry, i am really not directing that at the Derby but as a general statement towards the future. It is a solid approach you have outlined at deriving a Derby final figure.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

Sorry, i am really not directing that at the Derby but as a general statement towards the future. It is a solid approach you have outlined at deriving a Derby final figure.

I know you weren't, no worries. I understood your point.

[highnote]

Didn't Beyer give CC a 97 BSF?

Given the figure Timeform gave CC with the wind adjustment, what would the approximate wind adjusted BSF analog be?

[cj]

Originally Posted by highnote

Didn't Beyer give CC a 97 BSF?

Given the figure Timeform gave CC with the wind adjustment, what would the approximate wind adjusted Beyer equivalent be?

I posted this earlier, pretty sure it is about 103. Doesn't sound like much difference, but that is about 4 lengths.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by cj

I posted this earlier, pretty sure it is about 103. Doesn't sound like much difference, but that is about 4 lengths.

That sounds more reasonable and puts CC's effort more in line with historical figures.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is some supporting work on the wind, attached. It comes from Rob Bingel, President of Equinistic, LLC. Any flaws can be attributed to the inexact data he has to work with in regards to wind speed and direction, but this leaves little doubt in my opinion that wind was a much bigger impact on final time than many people realize.

This sentence from Bingel may be true, but the effect would be miniscule:

The slower the pace is, the more time the horses are exposed to the wind, and hence the bigger the time impact.

Intuitively, whether a horse is exposed to wind for 23 seconds or 25 seconds hardly makes a difference.

Maybe this was just a slow group of horses?