View Poll Results: Mega Barn "Super" Trainers are............... (You can choose more than one answer)
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Good for the game
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13 |
10.00% |
Bad for the game
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81 |
62.31% |
Have "Super Vets" and "Super" vet bills
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47 |
36.15% |
Just work harder than everyone else
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11 |
8.46% |
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07-08-2018, 12:29 PM
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#106
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Was my third choice so didn't use at all even though I thought there would be a meltdown. The gap in the works caused me to toss. It's interesting. Some of the "move'em up" guys have regular workouts all the time but then there are guys like Servis who regularly miss works but still run out of their minds.
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I bet him, he was my top contender. I thought Noble Indy was a fraud and Mendelssohn always overbet...but that was a joke, he would have beat Justify with the juice he had yesterday.
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07-08-2018, 12:33 PM
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#107
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Was my third choice so didn't use at all even though I thought there would be a meltdown. The gap in the works caused me to toss. It's interesting. Some of the "move'em up" guys have regular workouts all the time but then there are guys like Servis who regularly miss works but still run out of their minds.
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I think most people assumed the horse was a contender, partly because of the trainer but also he seems to be a horse that is much better at one turn than two. But being a contender and what we saw yesterday are two completely different things.
Maybe this guy is just the greatest trainer to come down the pike in decades, I have no idea. I just think it is sad that we can't enjoy the performances of the horses without having to wonder about other things.
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07-08-2018, 12:38 PM
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#108
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I think most people assumed the horse was a contender, partly because of the trainer but also he seems to be a horse that is much better at one turn than two. But being a contender and what we saw yesterday are two completely different things.
Maybe this guy is just the greatest trainer to come down the pike in decades, I have no idea. I just think it is sad that we can't enjoy the performances of the horses without having to wonder about other things.
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I cant bet Belmont today with his horses in them, I actually like them on their merits but I think after all the attention yesterday he may pull back on the needle, so not sure what to do. I will pass the card all together.
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07-08-2018, 12:51 PM
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#109
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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To me Firenze Fire looked like the kid who is big entering high school sports and never gets much bigger.
He also started to flatten-out on a consistent basis.
I wrote him off even as a contender. Yes... I know some people love the '1-turn' angle. I try to really be selective with that angle, because players are quick to use it to rationalize opinions.
There are possibilities that it was legit.
Maybe FF had injuries/issues that were hampering him for several races? Yesterday he was finally healthy?
And maybe the huge late odds drop was due to a lucky bet? Maybe their computer program falsely had FF as the top horse, and they were wrong, but happened to luck-into this horse that was finally healthy after being hampered for several races?
It's possible, but that sounds like bullshit. You have a barn where (before FF's Dwyer) horses are suddenly improving dramatically, and then the horse has bad enough form to be 5/1 or 6/1 or whatever... Maybe a fringe contender in the Dwyer if you go for the 1-turn angle thing... and suddenly he drops to 5/2 at the break and runs like he's the Top 3YO.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-08-2018, 01:06 PM
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#110
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
To me Firenze Fire looked like the kid who is big entering high school sports and never gets much bigger.
He also started to flatten-out on a consistent basis.
I wrote him off even as a contender. Yes... I know some people love the '1-turn' angle. I try to really be selective with that angle, because players are quick to use it to rationalize opinions.
There are possibilities that it was legit.
Maybe FF had injuries/issues that were hampering him for several races? Yesterday he was finally healthy?
And maybe the huge late odds drop was due to a lucky bet? Maybe their computer program falsely had FF as the top horse, and they were wrong, but happened to luck-into this horse that was finally healthy after being hampered for several races?
It's possible, but that sounds like bullshit. You have a barn where (before FF's Dwyer) horses are suddenly improving dramatically, and then the horse has bad enough form to be 5/1 or 6/1 or whatever... Maybe a fringe contender in the Dwyer if you go for the 1-turn angle thing... and suddenly he drops to 5/2 at the break and runs like he's the Top 3YO.
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That lucky bet would have been easy 5 figures....like you said did have form for that type of bet?
Here is another interesting stat, of the last 35 runners, and its like 20 wins, he has ZERO second place finishes, how is that even possible. I guess racing luck doesnt come into play for that barn. Stat was on Twitter, dont recall who said it.
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07-08-2018, 01:27 PM
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#111
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Servis isn't just killing Belmont. He is 17 for his last 30 outside of Belmont.
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07-08-2018, 03:01 PM
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#112
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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So what do we do with Fig Jelly in the 6th at Belmont. Goes to Servis from Wayne Rice who was at 0% when Fig Jelly was claimed from him.
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07-08-2018, 03:04 PM
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#113
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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I'd like to bet this 8 coming up in R4 at Belmont....better have a saver under the 7 I guess ��
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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07-09-2018, 07:47 AM
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#114
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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07-09-2018, 08:12 AM
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#115
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
So what do we do with Fig Jelly in the 6th at Belmont. Goes to Servis from Wayne Rice who was at 0% when Fig Jelly was claimed from him.
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After being rewarded big time singling Firenze Fire on top, I almost didn't want to believe Servis was juicing him but then I watched Fig Jelly yesterday and I'm convinced something fishy may be going on. On paper Fig Jelly looked like he didn't have much of a chance to win the race and he simply romped at 2-1.
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07-09-2018, 10:04 AM
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#116
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
After being rewarded big time singling Firenze Fire on top, I almost didn't want to believe Servis was juicing him but then I watched Fig Jelly yesterday and I'm convinced something fishy may be going on. On paper Fig Jelly looked like he didn't have much of a chance to win the race and he simply romped at 2-1.
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That's the thing. As longtime handicappers we can use the Trainer stats to evaluate horses. But, those of us that want a fair contest (and that includes Trainers, Owners,Breeders, want this stuff to stop. Only way to stop it is to get the FBI involved from the farms to the tracks IMO
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07-09-2018, 10:09 AM
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#117
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
After being rewarded big time singling Firenze Fire on top, I almost didn't want to believe Servis was juicing him but then I watched Fig Jelly yesterday and I'm convinced something fishy may be going on. On paper Fig Jelly looked like he didn't have much of a chance to win the race and he simply romped at 2-1.
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Here is a good rule of thumb for Servis horses - add 18 Beyer points to the the previous best. That is the median improvement for his last 24 winners.
Would be especially interesting to see how those 24 winners were bet as well.
Late money, odds drop in the second fraction?
I suspect as long as Servis is entering horses, we bettors will need something close to Fig Jelly, but not exactly that.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-09-2018, 07:53 PM
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#118
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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07-09-2018, 08:42 PM
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#120
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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I read this yesterday. First class...and all like that.
“People are talking a lot of shit,” Servis said, “and I’m really not happy about it.”
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