Belmont Post Positions

[Tom]

As long as NI is going to be setting the table, maybe he can bus it too, after the meal is over and he finally comes plodding home.

If he has the energy left, he could wash the dishes and take out the garbage.

Nice to a see horse placed where he belongs.
Will the jock be wearing an apron?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I do think it means something. I believe I'm seeing signs of a horse that's keyed up and going to run off in the Belmont, as we've seen in several horses going for the TC, resulting in a loss. Now the 1 hole? The horse is going to take Mike to the front and run too fast. I think it's wide open as to who'll win, but I wouldn't mind if Lukas is the one who stops this TC from happening.

I am with click. Long run to the first turn. Long race. Plenty of time to get position.

[clicknow]

an angle I've created in the past is looking up yearling prices--- cheap yearlings don't win the Belmont, although in the other races it can happen. Most of the winners were homebreds or over $100K. I was able to eliminate 3 horses quickly from the win spot this year.

One of them is Noble Indy, so have to go with Tom on his prediction on that one.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Post position is so not important in a race this long. If a horse and rider can't get positioned in a 1-1/2 mile race then they just don't belong out there.

Okay I'll give post position a 5% meaning here. Most all else is pedigree of horse to get there first, and jockey being able to time his "whoooosh!" correctly.

Intuition would suggest this but there are a few items to consider. Of TC races, the Belmont features the shortest distance from gate to first turn putting inside horses at risk of getting pinched from the get-go. Justify should be able to easily overcome this given his demonstrable early speed. The downside is he is forced to exerty early in a very long race. Results over the past 16 years or so show posts 7+ winning and hitting the exacta at a larger rate than chance, granted the statistical confidence interval is probably large given the modest sample size.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I am with click. Long run to the first turn. Long race. Plenty of time to get position.

Sure, unless you have a speed horse breaking from the 1 hole. You really think that Mike's going to slow him down enough on the run to the first turn for 1 or 2 other horses to clear him so that he can then angle out to get an outside stalking position on the backstretch? I'd be surprised if that happens. The horse is a good breaking horse, and if Mike purposefully keeps him off the front going into the turn, then they may well find him midpack on the rail, which I don't think Baffert is envisioning as where he wants the horse to be.

[Ribot Roboto]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I am with click. Long run to the first turn. Long race. Plenty of time to get position.

It’s not a long run to the first turn though. It’s a furlong, less than half the distance from where they start in the derby to first turn. Half the horses + half the distance = same result. Everyone is trying to get over so they don’t get hung wide in the turn. Noble Indy’s going to have to gun it right out of the gate.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Funny, Noble Indy is blinkers off per the PP's? Not really a rabbit strategy if you ask me.

He worked in blinkers on the 1st. He jogged yesterday without them. Pretty odd to me.

I didn't think NI was fast enough to touch Justify early anyway, but this looks like there is even less of a chance now.

To me, NI most likely settles in 2nd or 3rd (Bravazo might be in front of NI, he out broke him in the Risen Star and NI without blinkers). Both of them will be 3 or 4 lengths off of Justify at the first quarter.

Blinkers off just like palace malice

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Funny, Noble Indy is blinkers off per the PP's? Not really a rabbit strategy if you ask me.

He worked in blinkers on the 1st. He jogged yesterday without them. Pretty odd to me.

I didn't think NI was fast enough to touch Justify early anyway, but this looks like there is even less of a chance now.

To me, NI most likely settles in 2nd or 3rd (Bravazo might be in front of NI, he out broke him in the Risen Star and NI without blinkers). Both of them will be 3 or 4 lengths off of Justify at the first quarter.

I wonder if that has anything to do with the post positions drawn. Best strategy based on Justify in 1 and NI in the 9 hole would be to get out and settle just off of Justify and if the jockey feels as if the pace is too slow, you are in a position to push the issue without overexerting your horse.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

It’s not a long run to the first turn though. It’s a furlong, less than half the distance from where they start in the derby to first turn. Half the horses + half the distance = same result. Everyone is trying to get over so they don’t get hung wide in the turn. Noble Indy’s going to have to gun it right out of the gate.

It's more than a furlong. I don't know the exact distance but it is about 250 or 260 meters.

No, it isn't the same as the Derby (about 450 meters), but that's plenty of room to get position.

And even when you get into the turn, it's a much wider turn than at Churchill. So it isn't that big a deal if the horse has to get position on the turn.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

I wonder if that has anything to do with the post positions drawn. Best strategy based on Justify in 1 and NI in the 9 hole would be to get out and settle just off of Justify and if the jockey feels as if the pace is too slow, you are in a position to push the issue without overexerting your horse.

You might be right on the reasoning. I am sure Todd will be asked why the change.

Yeah Palace Malice won the Belmont blinkers off, but that was his normal way of going, the Derby was his first time blinkers on if I recall correctly, and he ran off, so it made sense to run him back without them.

Noble Indy's best race to date was the Louisiana Derby with blinkers on and he has ran with them ever since, Derby and training.

I assume Pletcher also does not think it a wise strategy to engage Justify early, and NI will be lucky to get a mile and a half even off of a soft pace in a stalking position in my opinion.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's more than a furlong. I don't know the exact distance but it is about 250 or 260 meters.

Per the 1981 American Racing Manual, the distance from finish line to first turn on Belmont's main track is 843 feet. The Derby start to first turn is listed as 1320 feet.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Per the 1981 American Racing Manual, the distance from finish line to first turn on Belmont's main track is 843 feet. The Derby start to first turn is listed as 1320 feet.

843 feet is 255 meters.

That 1320 feet is wrong, though. That's exactly 1/4 of a mile, which (with the run-up) would have the CD clubhouse turn starting before the finish line (on the line without the run-up). CD has a very short run past the line to the first turn, but it isn't zero.

I think my numbers, which I just constructed by eyeballing the two racetracks when I was at each one, are very close to the actual numbers.

[Ribot Roboto]

I’ll take your word for it. Whatever the distance is, it’s a whole lot less that what one might expect and the point is that it would be horrible to get hung wide in the turn. Post position does affect that. Sure, they have plenty of time to sort things out—later—the first furlong is still about getting over before they hit the turn. Something else about Belmont I haven’t seen anyone bring up is that certain horses excel in the turns as opposed to others that do not. The turns at Belmont negate that advantage to some extent.

[Blenheim]

The sum of that data reveals post position can be a negative in two circumstances only:

• The outside posts at middle distances and in sprints having a short run to the first turn

• The rail posts on drying-out or otherwise dead-rail surfaces

Quinn


It will be interesting to see how the rail is playin'.


Seems like Justify is in a no win situation. Repole will not allow Justify to run wild and free. If he sprints out Noble Indy is gonna be right at his side on a kamikaze mission forcing the pace and pressuring Justify to the rail. If Justify takes back, Noble Indy is gonna kick some dirt in his face for the first time, don't think Baffert is gonna let that happen as Justify might back out of it. Justify has more speed, but Noble Indy has enough speed to go with him.


If Good Magic can go with Justify, so can Noble Indy. So Justify will get a good long taste of what he gave Good Magic in the Maryland. No doubt certainly would be a different situation had the post positions been reversed.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That 1320 feet is wrong, though.

Yeah you might be right on that, looking at the diagram listed, it has the finish line right at the start of the first turn, which I don't think is the case.