5 Reasons Justify Wins The Triple Crown

[jay68802]

1. Speed figures. Easy to see, he simply has better figures than his competition. There are only 7 figures that beat his worst figure, two of those were on synthetic, and 4 of the others were run in ideal conditions.

2. Prime Power. Has a big edge here, 14 points. That figure alone wins 60% of the time.

3. Tactical Speed. He can be where he wants to be. The only runner in the field that can do this. All the other runners are dependent on pace to some degree. Draws inside and can get the lead, draws outside and can sit next to the pacesetter.

4. Speed point advantage. 3. Horses that have this advantage win a lot of races.

5. Running Style.

Justify...............E/8
Bravazo.............EP/5
Noble Indy.........EP/5
Ten Fold............EP/5
Restoring Hope...EP/4
Hoffburg............P/2
Free Drop Billy....P/1
Vino Roso...........S/3
Blended Citizen...S/2

Can you say lone speed?

[papillon]

Originally Posted by jay68802

1. Speed figures. Easy to see, he simply has better figures than his competition. There are only 7 figures that beat his worst figure, two of those were on synthetic, and 4 of the others were run in ideal conditions.

2. Prime Power. Has a big edge here, 14 points. That figure alone wins 60% of the time.

3. Tactical Speed. He can be where he wants to be. The only runner in the field that can do this. All the other runners are dependent on pace to some degree. Draws inside and can get the lead, draws outside and can sit next to the pacesetter.

4. Speed point advantage. 3. Horses that have this advantage win a lot of races.

5. Running Style.

Justify...............E/8
Bravazo.............EP/5
Noble Indy.........EP/5
Ten Fold............EP/5
Restoring Hope...EP/4
Hoffburg............P/2
Free Drop Billy....P/1
Vino Roso...........S/3
Blended Citizen...S/2

Can you say lone speed?

Speed doesn't win the Belmont, energy distribution does.

Horses who win this race are one pace runners. In each year, the horse with the fastest flattest pace wins the race.

Restoring Hope is the ideal Belmont horse, a fast plodder with an insane staying pedigree. I saw someone at one of the other sites mention that the horse is in the race only to try to pace Justify. This makes sense, having a pacer is likely the only way he can win. If he tries to set a pace himself he'll lose because he doesn't have that natural rhythmn, unlike AP did.

I'm not a huge fan of AP, but of all three TC races, the race he was born to win was the Belmont. He was perfect for it. Justify was perfect for the Preakness.

Compare Restoring Hope's and Justify's works this morning, one horse is in control of his rate of decelaration and the other is a victim to it.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by papillon

Speed doesn't win the Belmont, energy distribution does.

Good point. I believe American Pharoah is the only EP7 or E8 type horse to win the race in that last 16 years. Unlike what Justify has displayed so far, AP didn't need to go fast out of the gate. See Rebel Stakes.

Also, interesting note on Restoring Hope. I'm still inclined to dismiss him from the win pool but he does having the running style to blow up the trifecta. He should be long odds after the Pat Day mile debacle.

[lamboguy]

how about JUSTIFY ran a great race in Maryland against a good field of horses that are probably better than what he faces in New York.

[Redboard]

you forgot to add the Baffert factor. He's is the only active trainer that has won a triple crown.

[jay68802]

Restoring Hope is a dye in the wool chaser, whose only win has come in a restricted MSW race. The only race he has faced Graded Stakes pace he finished a very non-threatening third.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Restoring Hope is a dye in the wool chaser, whose only win has come in a restricted MSW race. The only race he has faced Graded Stakes pace he finished a very non-threatening third.

His odds will reflect this.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by papillon

Compare Restoring Hope's and Justify's works this morning, one horse is in control of his rate of decelaration and the other is a victim to it.

You think the other Baffert trained horse is going to be the one to upset the triple crown attempt?

I'm not saying it's going to be "fixed", that there's some plan to make restoring hope lose or set up for Justify. It's that Baffert knows the horse can't beat Justify and RH isn't that competitive in the bel stakes at all.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

You think the other Baffert trained horse is going to be the one to upset the triple crown attempt?

I'm not saying it's going to be "fixed", that there's some plan to make restoring hope lose or set up for Justify. It's that Baffert knows the horse can't beat Justify and RH isn't that competitive in the bel stakes at all.

This and the West's probably want free tickets to the race. They can write off any thing it cost them to enter the horse.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by jay68802

This and the West's probably want free tickets to the race. They can write off any thing it cost them to enter the horse.

And why not? All kinds of reasons to enter into a race other than be in it to win it. They get to watch their horse compete in a high profile event. Sounds good to me.

[boys at tosconova]

justy could easily put this field to sleep.

it's highly unlikely there will be any shenanigans this race with a horse pushing him.

prolly rank and file behind him...with tenfold and bravazo completing the number once again.............yawn

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

prolly rank and file behind him...with tenfold and bravazo completing the number once again.............yawn

It almost never works out like that. In fact, I need to stop betting such scenarios. I lose 90% of the time I make such wager.

[Ribot Roboto]

5 reasons Justify doesn’t win the Triple Crown:

1. California Chrome
2. Big Brown
3. Smarty Jones
4. Funny Cide
5. War Emblem

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by papillon

Speed doesn't win the Belmont, energy distribution does.

This is the reason I am contemplating playing against him (aside from the fact he will over bet).

He's been both both the best horse and the fastest horse so far, but the Belmont is typically won by a more even paced horse even if it's won on the front end.

The question I am asking is whether he's been running so fast early due to conditions and running style or just running style?

There won't be as much speed in the Belmont as there was in the Derby and the Preakness was also an odd situation in that the 2nd best horse couldn't let him get away and wound up pushing a duel. If he's allowed to take an untested lead, he may relax and slow it down enough to go this far. If he gets pushed and wants the lead, he may be in for a tough stretch run.

[Ribot Roboto]

Look at his pp’s. No matter how fast or slow the pace, he always runs just fast enough to be in front.