Case for Noble Indy in the Belmont...

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Will have to see post positions.

A mile and 1/2 race, post positions are not very potent angle IMHO. I usually don't even consider them in the BEL. Horses have plenty of time to get position in a race this long. Being on correct lead, efficient running style, so they can best use heart/oxygen/fitness to motor by others in the final stretch, really all that matters.

[Ribot Roboto]

I’ll be leaving off all three Justify, Noble Indy, and Restoring Hope, as well as Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

I’ll be leaving off all three Justify, Noble Indy, and Restoring Hope, as well as Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.

dartboard approach?

[Ribot Roboto]

Nah. Pedigree.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

I’ll be leaving off all three Justify, Noble Indy, and Restoring Hope, as well as Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.

None of those are on my win list, either.

I dunno about trifecta/superfectas though. I have 1 or 2 of those in for 4th on my ticket construction.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by clicknow

None of those are on my win list, either.

I dunno about trifecta/superfectas though. I have 1 or 2 of those in for 4th on my ticket construction.

You guys are trying to get paid too much, basically you have Blended Citizen

Tossing Justify, Vino Rosso and Hofburg, let alone the others, makes your win hit something like 5%

Seems like odd handicapping to me, or at least something you're only putting $.10 on.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Will have to see post positions. Noble Indy does not need the lead to win. However you don’t really want to let justify go because then your playing with Fire.

Lol post positions

[Ribot Roboto]

I’m not trying to get paid, just trying to find the winner. Notice besides not tossing Blended Citizen I also didn’t toss Tenfold or Bravazo. No chance for those guys?

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by jocko699

Lol post positions

I could see the strategy for noble Indy’s connections changing depending on post position. That’s all I’m saying. Maybe I’m wrong. There strategy might vary if they draw the one whole as compared it to if they get the 5 hole and justify is in the 1 hole

[Ribot Roboto]

I’m not sure if post positions are critical in the Belmont except for who draws where relative to those with similar running styles, just as in any race. Justify and Noble Indy both think they’re supposed to be in front for example, whereas if they’re separated by several other horses, the speed dual in the former scenario may never materialize and Justify waltzes around the track.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

I’m not trying to get paid, just trying to find the winner. Notice besides not tossing Blended Citizen I also didn’t toss Tenfold or Bravazo. No chance for those guys?

I’m kind of liking it...

[Ribot Roboto]

Hah I can’t help it if the ones I like have slightly better odds. Except for Bravazo anyway. Odds are the last thing I look at, only after I’m done handicapping, and only then to decide whether and how much to bet on the one(s) I already liked. People that pick horses based on odds are soon parted with their money if you know what I mean.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

You guys are trying to get paid too much, basically you have Blended Citizen

Tossing Justify, Vino Rosso and Hofburg, let alone the others, makes your win hit something like 5%

Seems like odd handicapping to me, or at least something you're only putting $.10 on.

I can't see how Ribot's not choosing justify, vino, hofburg, noble indy. restoring Hope, or Gronkowski to win the BEL is at all far-fetched.

It leaves him 4-5 other horses to choose from for win candidates if we get 11 runners.....


He has already stated that he is choosing based on pedigree.

Again, this is why horses like Exaggerator go off as chalky favorites and run 11th, and why most people didn't have Creator, Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice, Tonalist w/Commissioner, etc. (cuz let's face it, ANYBODY who was a pedigree type handicapper would not have left 28-1 Commissioner off their ticket.....but the betting public did). Ditto Dale Romans's Medal Count who also went off at huge odds.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

Hah I can’t help it if the ones I like have slightly better odds. Except for Bravazo anyway. Odds are the last thing I look at, only after I’m done handicapping, and only then to decide whether and how much to bet on the one(s) I already liked. People that pick horses based on odds are soon parted with their money if you know what I mean.

Fair enough.

Roboto, what do you have against Hofburg?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Fair enough.

Roboto, what do you have against Hofburg?

This. He's using a couple I also have but not liking Hofburg who tops my checklist and that's before looking at secondary angles.

Primary angles:
Fast final 3/8th - check (Florida Derby)
Buckpasser-x - check x2
Close enough to front - check (only 3 1/2 back at 6F pole in fast early Florida Derby)
Conduit mare - check (Dazzling in tail female)

Secondary angles:
Dosage less than 4.00 - check (2.78)
Belmont winning rider - check (Ortiz)
Skipped the Preakness - check
Tapit (if not Raise A Native) - check
Not a pure front runner - check (I believe the only other E/P7 or E8 type horse to win in last 16 years was American Pharoah.)