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05-27-2018, 11:52 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Why is it so surprising that horse like Bravazo and Tenfold would run career best races and figures when they get a dream setup like they had on Saturday? Sitting behind dueling leaders who engaged the whole way, quickened at at the 3/8ths pole and tired late is exactly what I would have wanted had I trained those horses.
If there are overbet horses out of the Preakness its Tenfold and Bravazo.
Justify's issues in the Belmont wont be that he is too slow it will be that 12F is too much or maybe just too much racing the past couple months.
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Totally agree with these thoughts.
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05-27-2018, 11:55 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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My question is will Justify have a horse or two pressing him up top? Then the conditioning and 12f aspects might be exposed. OR, just to be fair, he's still growing and improving, so he can hack it with 3 weeks. Historically I think that is less likely on the probability scale, but that's what makes TC champs.
With some pace up top, I still think the rest is huge and depending on price, I'll be looking to Mott's "wise guy".
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05-27-2018, 12:41 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Why is it so surprising that horse like Bravazo and Tenfold would run career best races and figures when they get a dream setup like they had on Saturday? Sitting behind dueling leaders who engaged the whole way, quickened at at the 3/8ths pole and tired late is exactly what I would have wanted had I trained those horses.
If there are overbet horses out of the Preakness its Tenfold and Bravazo.
Justify's issues in the Belmont wont be that he is too slow it will be that 12F is too much or maybe just too much racing the past couple months.
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I will agree with you on Tenfold, but not Bravazo. Bravazo was, and still is a improving horse. Yes, he might be a little pace dependent, but not nearly as dependent as Tenfold. As for Justify being too slow, the speed figures indicate that is not the case.
One interesting thing I am sort of looking forward to is that what if the Belmont track is speed favoring? Seems to happen a lot on their big racing days. Could change the race in favor of Justify in a huge way.
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05-27-2018, 03:10 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Bravazo was, and still is a improving horse.
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If you don't mind, explain why you see this.
I watched him work for quite a while over at OP. I am not seeing any improvement----I see a horse who freaks in the slop, who gives the appearance of an improving horse because previously he really hasn't done much----then he gets on mud in the Preakness and handles it better than some of the other horses and suddenly now he's an "improving horse"?
Not saying I'm right, just want some other thoughts.
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05-27-2018, 03:49 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
If you don't mind, explain why you see this.
I watched him work for quite a while over at OP. I am not seeing any improvement----I see a horse who freaks in the slop, who gives the appearance of an improving horse because previously he really hasn't done much----then he gets on mud in the Preakness and handles it better than some of the other horses and suddenly now he's an "improving horse"?
Not saying I'm right, just want some other thoughts.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Still messing around with this, the top 4 horses all improved their rating compared to their last race.
... 1950
... 1897
... 1856
... 1848
... 1841
... 1836
... 1824
... 1806
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Just using my rating system for this.
Justify had gone from 1899 to 1928 to 1950 and Bravazo had gone from 1727 to 1737 to 1848. This is why I say this. The rating has been good for picking winners when they have a 30 pt advantage and it has been good at showing improvement. Why it is good at picking winners is because that is what it is designed for. Why it is showing improving form is still a little bit of a mystery to me. Since it uses only pace and speed figures I can see some of it but a lot of the time, as the case with Bravazo, when I look at the form I do not see it myself. The rating system is a work in progress but I am starting to trust it more and more.
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05-27-2018, 09:00 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Justify had gone from 1899 to 1928 to 1950 and Bravazo had gone from 1727 to 1737 to 1848. This is why I say this. The rating has been good for picking winners when they have a 30 pt advantage and it has been good at showing improvement. Why it is good at picking winners is because that is what it is designed for.
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Thank you. That helps me.
I watched B's gallop today, it looked good except for where he was a little off focus gawking at things. OTOH I kinda like horses who are curious, as it shows intelligence.
Any thoughts on Badua yet?
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05-27-2018, 09:04 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Thank you. That helps me.
I watched B's gallop today, it looked good except for where he was a little off focus gawking at things. OTOH I kinda like horses who are curious, as it shows intelligence.
Any thoughts on Badua yet?
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Not yet, just waiting for the post draw, will post the ratings when I get them done.
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05-28-2018, 02:23 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
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Thanks for digging those up for me. Looks like he was carrying 136 lbs and 131 lbs. and running on a virtual cranberry bog both times.....very tiring soggy going. Dunno if that can translate to dirt, but he'll certainly be fit.......and gets 10 less pounds....
Last edited by clicknow; 05-28-2018 at 02:25 AM.
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06-09-2018, 09:20 PM
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#40
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Adding Belmont Day Graded Stakes:
I'll post more specific Belmont stuff after taking out the wife for dinner and a drink or two.
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06-09-2018, 09:25 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Justify's figures, using Timeform, are amazingly consistent.
going from first race to last
129
122
131
127
128
125
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06-09-2018, 09:28 PM
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#42
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Good stuff as always. Thought Bee ran a monster.
And Abel Tasman is back.
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06-09-2018, 11:41 PM
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#43
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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06-10-2018, 12:47 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Wait, they said it was a slow pace?
I think riders have a tough time discerning a slow pace from a controlled pace.
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06-10-2018, 10:10 AM
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#45
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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I think a lot of people talk for sake of talking.
CJ says it with numbers to back him up.
If that pace was slow, what was the Brooklyn? Turtle racing?
They went over 2 seconds slower to a few calls.
The last people I listen to are jockeys and trainers.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 06-10-2018 at 10:13 AM.
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