i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Oy, please lecture us about small sample size again, on second thought never mind I'd rather schedule a root canal. I was NOT bringing up the curse fully but broken record that you are whateva, was just saying to win the triple crown without a longer racing period, that is justify has not had a rest this year...I did not attack your pet peeve whacked out obsession...damn.

You said "probably the Apollo jinx"

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Horses with more experience, like Alysheba, have also lost the Belmont after winning the first two.

There's nothing magical about 2 year old racing.

EDIT: if 2 year old racing is so important, how come we never use it as an important factor when handicapping 3 year old claiming races? It can't be that the only 3 year olds affected by it are those who run in 3 races 6 months later.

It gets the horses experience/education. I always look at how much a horse has raced reguardless of age, especially in stakes races

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Horses with more experience, like Alysheba, have also lost the Belmont after winning the first two.

Not sure what this is saying. I wasn't commenting on Justify's Triple Crown prospects. In fact, I said he was an exception to the rule, so at this point I have no problem with someone suggesting he can win the Belmont.

But I wouldn't lambast anyone who docked him a point or two in their handicapping of the Kentucky Derby because he failed to start at 2. Some of those people likely still backed him because they couldn't land on anything else in the race. Justify certainly had a lot of other things going for him for that trace.

Nevertheless, Alysheba was defeated by Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, and Gulch. All well established 2yos.

There's nothing magical about 2 year old racing.

Didn't say it was magical. But there certainly is a lot of money in it, and for a trainer to sit on a talented horse usually means one thing--the horse is has physical issues precluding training and racing.

Actually, if you want to bring magic into it, it's like being behind the eight ball...

You're going to bet an unraced 2yo in the Kentucky Derby from now on?

All signs still point to "No"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3raKrkl3D4

EDIT: if 2 year old racing is so important, how come we never use it as an important factor when handicapping 3 year old claiming races?

I guess if said 3yo claiming race (this of course ignores that a significant portion of the claiming population has chronic physical issues) is carded in May at a long distance none of the participants are likely to ever test again it would be an important factor.

It can't be that the only 3 year olds affected by it are those who run in 3 races 6 months later.

It is precisely that when you consider the position on the calendar, the distances involved, the preparation (and points) necessary to participate, and the spacing of those 3 races.

If they augmented the Triple Crown to begin on say July 1st, do you think we'd see more unraced 2yos both participating and winning the 3 classics?

I think so.

[Burls]

I know he sucked in the Derby but I'll be looking at Hofburg very closely if he's in the Belmont. The field will be smaller and he got to sit out the Peakness, so if he's got anything, the Belmont will be Hofburg's best chance to show it.

[GMB@BP]

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period. He had to win the maiden, he had to win the Alw, he could maybe have gotten there with a second at SA, then win the Derby, and now the Preakness

No margin for error and no breathers.

I would like to see some comparisons, all horses of every age, with a similar set of graded races (3 grade 1's) and two other races in 90 days. Now a 5th at 110 days.

Probably have to go back to the early 80's. Unheard of in modern racing from my, albeit, average memory.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Burls

I know he sucked in the Derby but I'll be looking at Hofburg very closely if he's in the Belmont. The field will be smaller and he got to sit out the Peakness, so if he's got anything, the Belmont will be Hofburg's best chance to show it.

Hofburg will be second choice at 7/2...did you see the gallop out, he beat justify by 10!

[menifee]

He was exhausted after the race. So many reasons to bet against this horse next time out in Belmont.


1. Lack of foundation
2. Number of tough races this horse has run in past two months starting with SA Derby.
3. I may be in the minority on this, but I don’t think this horse wants any part of these distances. I think he has so much talent and natural cruising speed that compensates, but in his last three races, I’m not seeing a horse who is really finishing.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by menifee

He was exhausted after the race. So many reasons to bet against this horse next time out in Belmont.


1. Lack of foundation
2. Number of tough races this horse has run in past two months starting with SA Derby.
3. I may be in the minority on this, but I don’t think this horse wants any part of these distances. I think he has so much talent and natural cruising speed that compensates, but in his last three races, I’m not seeing a horse who is really finishing.

I agree with your first 2 points for sure. He may not want the mile and a half. But I can’t say he wants no part of the last 2 distances he ran. He won both races.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Not sure what this is saying. I wasn't commenting on Justify's Triple Crown prospects. In fact, I said he was an exception to the rule, so at this point I have no problem with someone suggesting he can win the Belmont.

But I wouldn't lambast anyone who docked him a point or two in their handicapping of the Kentucky Derby because he failed to start at 2. Some of those people likely still backed him because they couldn't land on anything else in the race. Justify certainly had a lot of other things going for him for that trace.

Nevertheless, Alysheba was defeated by Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, and Gulch. All well established 2yos.


Didn't say it was magical. But there certainly is a lot of money in it, and for a trainer to sit on a talented horse usually means one thing--the horse is has physical issues precluding training and racing.

Actually, if you want to bring magic into it, it's like being behind the eight ball...

You're going to bet an unraced 2yo in the Kentucky Derby from now on?

All signs still point to "No"...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3raKrkl3D4


I guess if said 3yo claiming race (this of course ignores that a significant portion of the claiming population has chronic physical issues) is carded in May at a long distance none of the participants are likely to ever test again it would be an important factor.


It is precisely that when you consider the position on the calendar, the distances involved, the preparation (and points) necessary to participate, and the spacing of those 3 races.

If they augmented the Triple Crown to begin on say July 1st, do you think we'd see more unraced 2yos both participating and winning the 3 classics?

I think so.

I have a different perspective: if 3 different races were the 3 most important races in the sport, a lot of handicappers would posit special esoteric theories for those races rather than just handicapping them with established methods.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Yes. I thought the horse was visibly tired. Really impressed that he hung on though. He’s a great horse no doubt reguardless of what happens in the future. He’s a tank

he looked pretty peppy on his way back to the barn:

Twitter

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont think the issue for Justify is running at two

Its being asked for his top efforts in a very compacted period.

I think there is a phrase for that, the word lemon is in the phrase.

[Fightingirish51195]

I heard Lukas has already said Bravazo will run in the Belmont. Love it. He can run all day

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I heard Lukas has already said Bravazo will run in the Belmont. Love it. He can run all day

Oxbow 2.0. Same sire, as well as same broodmare sire.

OXBOW b. C, 2010 {26} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD = 0.67
BRAVAZO dkb/br. C, 2015{A10} DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI =2.75 CD= 0.67

Sort of surprised more people didn't use him knowing that.

So if he runs 2nd in the BEL it will be freaky.

[Blenheim]

He has proven he is the class hoss' w/the best trainer and jockey.



If he runs out front at a moderate pace in the Belmont, even w/company, he should win. They gotta beat this guy and thus far, none of the other horses match up. The only thing that beats this horse is pace.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

If they did that, not sure anyone would’ve touched him. Why did justify tire at the end? Is he just tiring through the triple crown process? Or was it the battle he was engaged in.

Ortiz said that he ran along with Justify because the pace was not very fast. His words not mine. He said he tried to take back but the pace was too slow. It didn't sound like a duel from his perspective.