i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Smith said post race the horse was tiring. Baffert said he would only run in the Belmont if the preparation goes well.

Read the tea leaves here....

The horse will let Baffert know.......3 weeks to rest. Let's see if his left hoof has any problems.......its gonna be interesting g the next 3 weeks.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

Not sure about 3 years ago but today I would much rather be on the outside in a match race scenario.

And lose more ground?

If you want to lay off a bit and relax, sure, being outside keeps you in the clear.

But you do lose ground. And if the plan is to get into a speed duel, the inside horse has the advantage.

[metro]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's not just LS. 4 horses very close to Justify. That is very meaningful.

Sea of goo, fog, contested pace and they still couldn't get him. Won't say Justify is a TC winner until we see who he lines up against at Belmont but today was probably the day to get him.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

I agree but it was GD goop and he was outside the whole time (what is that on TG) against a very good horse. IF he can rest enough in 3 weeks he can do it. #BetterthanParoah

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

The fact that Bravazo stayed in close range to the speed duel up front and then was able to threaten the winner (and swallow up Good Magic) late while Lone Sailor also was coming on late calls into question the suspect results of the Derby that painted Justify as several lengths the best of his generation.

In the Derby, Bravazo was bumped at the start and parked wide throughout and Lone Sailor was unable to advance at a critical point in the race when waiting behind a fading Free Drop Billy. With relatively cleaner trips they found 7 or 8 lengths on Justify. Even Good Magic technically made up 1.5 lengths from the Derby while saving a bit more ground staying on the inside.

That suggests that other horses with poor trips at Churchill such as Instilled Regard (currently on the shelf), My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso may reverse form on Justify as well.

It's probably also significant that 2 key pace rivals in the Derby, Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, were essentially eliminated at the start, further exaggerating Justify's position at the head of the 3yo crop.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by metro

Sea of goo, fog, contested pace and they still couldn't get him. Won't say Justify is a TC winner until we see who he lines up against at Belmont but today was probably the day to get him.

Yeah I don’t agree. They all had to deal with the fog and the sea of goo. The Belmont is the equalizer

[PaceAdvantage]

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

Yes. I thought the horse was visibly tired. Really impressed that he hung on though. He’s a great horse no doubt reguardless of what happens in the future. He’s a tank

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

Yeah, he was breathing hard, but didn't he beat out everyone on the gallop out? Or did I see wrong?

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by metro

Sea of goo, fog, contested pace and they still couldn't get him. Won't say Justify is a TC winner until we see who he lines up against at Belmont but today was probably the day to get him.

No doubt.


It'll be interesting to see what the figures tell us about this race . . . gotta run him in the Belmont, too much at stake not to, tired or not. He showed some true grit today. I'd like to see him go onto the Belmont and win that one too.


Congrats to Baffert and the connections here, nice win!

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The fact that Bravazo stayed in close range to the speed duel up front and then was able to threaten the winner (and swallow up Good Magic) late while Lone Sailor also was coming on late calls into question the suspect results of the Derby that painted Justify as several lengths the best of his generation.

In the Derby, Bravazo was bumped at the start and parked wide throughout and Lone Sailor was unable to advance at a critical point in the race when waiting behind a fading Free Drop Billy. With relatively cleaner trips they found 7 or 8 lengths on Justify. Even Good Magic technically made up 1.5 lengths from the Derby while saving a bit more ground staying on the inside.

That suggests that other horses with poor trips at Churchill such as Instilled Regard (currently on the shelf), My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso may reverse form on Justify as well.

It's probably also significant that 2 key pace rivals in the Derby, Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, were essentially eliminated at the start, further exaggerating Justify's position at the head of the 3yo crop.

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

It is more than a length, probably lengths.



Look, a bet against I can see, he'll be less than even money. I do still say he's something special and i don't think these off tracks are his ultimate space. Probably the Apollo jinx will be more in effect winning the three than just the Derby. The list posted earlier of the many who won the first two and spit the bit says alot.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

The fact that Bravazo stayed in close range to the speed duel up front and then was able to threaten the winner (and swallow up Good Magic) late while Lone Sailor also was coming on late calls into question the suspect results of the Derby that painted Justify as several lengths the best of his generation.

In the Derby, Bravazo was bumped at the start and parked wide throughout and Lone Sailor was unable to advance at a critical point in the race when waiting behind a fading Free Drop Billy. With relatively cleaner trips they found 7 or 8 lengths on Justify. Even Good Magic technically made up 1.5 lengths from the Derby while saving a bit more ground staying on the inside.

That suggests that other horses with poor trips at Churchill such as Instilled Regard (currently on the shelf), My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso may reverse form on Justify as well.

It's probably also significant that 2 key pace rivals in the Derby, Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, were essentially eliminated at the start, further exaggerating Justify's position at the head of the 3yo crop.

I will also add "WOW" what a speed bias today.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

It is more than a length, probably lengths.



Look, a bet against I can see, he'll be less than even money. I do still say he's something special and i don't think these off tracks are his ultimate space. Probably the Apollo jinx will be more in effect winning the three than just the Derby. The list posted earlier of the many who won the first two and spit the bit says alot.

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Curlin lost the Belmont by a nose to a half sister of the previous year's winner after 2 tough races in the first two legs. Some jinx.

The curse of Apollo was disproven. It is time to hang it up in favor of sound handicapping.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Curlin lost the Belmont by a nose to a half sister of the previous year's winner after 2 tough races in the first two legs. Some jinx.

The curse of Apollo was disproven. It is time to hang it up in favor of sound handicapping.

A strict blind adherence to a "curse" is surely foolish, but at the same time there are plausible physical reasons (as you suggested in another thread) why such a "curse" exists.

As far as I can tell, Curlin--and now Justify--was an exception to the rule.

That's not to say that an unraced 2yo can never win a Classic (that's already been disproven), but simply that horses exposed to 2yo racing have a better chance of winning a Classic than horses that do not.

It seems like a useful angle to consider in these types of races. However, if you are foregoing other factors like the relative quality of the rest of the crop (or at least the fields that are lining up against these horses) you could be in for a headache.

Certainly the paltry division that saw the relatively inexperienced Big Brown streak to the top of the heap was a major factor in his ascendancy, while eventually it was his physical issues (that hindered his 2yo progression) that snatched the mantle of greatness from his shoulders.

That's why you're example of Curlin is exceptional. That appeared to be a very formidable crop he toiled against. And he had no problem dispatching the best older horse (Lawyer Ron) that season, either.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

A strict blind adherence to a "curse" is surely foolish, but at the same time there are plausible physical reasons (as you suggested in another thread) why such a "curse" exists.

As far as I can tell, Curlin--and now Justify--was an exception to the rule.

That's not to say that an unraced 2yo can never win a Classic (that's already been disproven), but simply that horses exposed to 2yo racing have a better chance of winning a Classic than horses that do not.

It seems like a useful angle to consider in these types of races. However, if you are foregoing other factors like the relative quality of the rest of the crop (or at least the fields that are lining up against these horses) you could be in for a headache.

Certainly the paltry division that saw the relatively inexperienced Big Brown streak to the top of the heap was a major factor in his ascendancy, while eventually it was his physical issues (that hindered his 2yo progression) that snatched the mantle of greatness from his shoulders.

That's why you're example of Curlin is exceptional. That appeared to be a very formidable crop he toiled against. And he had no problem dispatching the best older horse (Lawyer Ron) that season, either.

Horses with more experience, like Alysheba, have also lost the Belmont after winning the first two.

There's nothing magical about 2 year old racing.

EDIT: if 2 year old racing is so important, how come we never use it as an important factor when handicapping 3 year old claiming races? It can't be that the only 3 year olds affected by it are those who run in 3 races 6 months later.

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Curlin lost the Belmont by a nose to a half sister of the previous year's winner after 2 tough races in the first two legs. Some jinx.

The curse of Apollo was disproven. It is time to hang it up in favor of sound handicapping.

Really? Some people can't quit the Apollo jinx


Oy, please lecture us about small sample size again, on second thought never mind I'd rather schedule a root canal. I was NOT bringing up the curse fully but broken record that you are whateva, was just saying to win the triple crown without a longer racing period, that is justify has not had a rest this year...I did not attack your pet peeve whacked out obsession...damn.