Advice on direction for a new handicapper?

[Lateralus]

Well I would not exactly say I'm "new". I've been playing recreationally for years, but very seldom. I'd really like to get into it for real now.

I'd like advice on whether to stick with my current plan or not. Currently, I'm planning to (already started really) dust off all my old handicapping books by Quinn, Mitchell, Glendon Jones, Brohamer, Davidowitz, Scott etc from the late 80's / early 90's and buy the most recent versions of these books for any that have been updated. As well as purchase the latest books I don't have which are quite a few obviously. Then I'm planning to handicap the good old fashioned way, with a form and pen and pencil and calculator until I feel like it's all second nature, BEFORE jumping into computerized handicapping. I figure if I do this, I'll have a real fundamental understanding of what the computer is spitting out. Conversely, I could still read all the books but jump immediately into computerized handicapping and learn / practice that way. Paper and pencil might leave me understanding a lot more at a fundamental level, but starting out with software and all the books, I'd still understand what everything meant and how to use it I assume. Is it worth the extra time to get a super solid grasp on everything mechanically with paper and pencil first though? Or would that just be a waste of time which could be better spent reading the books and putting the massive amount of paper and pencil learning time exclusively into the software?

Lastly, any advice on what software might be most appropriate for the new handicapper? I've read about HSH, HTR, RDSS, Jcapper, HorSense, Black Magic, etc. Eventually I'm sure I'll try all of these out and work with the program or programs that I like best. I watched the Black Magic DVD and that in particular looks pretty spectacular to me. It looks so clean and refined, like an application from a large company really. Plus Michael Pizolla includes an ungodly amount of DVD instruction with it (perhaps another reason to not worry about mastery of paper and pencil handicapping first?) Whether or not it *looks* better though is less important to me than what program I might best be using as a beginner if it's something other than Black Magic.

Any and all advice appreciated!

Doug aka Lateralus

[Lateralus]

Another thing I should mention with regard to my plan to learn everything on paper until it's second nature: I'm planning to include POPS & TIPS handicapping in my overall approach. This was a method I bought back when it first came out which I loved, it just took WAY too bloody long. I did buy the TIPS software just last week because I believe it's something I can quickly add to my repertoire, however all advice seems to point to the fact that to really use it effectively, one NEEDS to learn pencil & paper POPS & TIPS and read / practice with the new manuals and TIPS report to really be able to get even close to the full potential out of the software. That being the case, I suppose if I must commit to doing a lot of TIPS paper & pencil handicapping anyway perhaps I should just take it all the way and practice everything in the books the old fashioned way as well. Perhaps tedious in the modern age of handicapping, but I don't mind; I enjoy it quite a bit actually. Although eventually I'm sure I'll enjoy software handicapping far more.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The book and I believe this excerpt are now public domain:
PITTSBURG PHIL:


A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet.
A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet.
A good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet.
A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.
Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.
The minute that a man loses his balance on the race track he is like a horse that is trying to run away.
A man cannot divide his attention at the track between horses and women.
All consistently successful players of horses are men of temperate habits in life.
The racing man should arise in the morning cool and clear headed and should then take up the problem of the day.
Some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.
If there are two or three very fast horses in a race one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey. Hence look out for your intelligent jockey.
Many killings are attempted but few are accomplished.
In handicaps the top weights are at a disadvantage always unless they are very high class horses.
There are few trainers who can send a horse to the post the first time out in perfect condition.
One race for a horse is equal to two or three private trials.
Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority.
Winners repeat frequently while the defeated are apt to be defeated almost continuously.
The majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course. Mud runners are usually good on the turf.
Time enters into the argument under certain conditions, but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting.
The ability to tell whether a horse is at its best before a race is acquired only after years of the closest kind of study.
Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work.
A horse that frets is a very dangerous betting proposition.
The majority of the riders and horses are game and will fight for victory no matter where they are placed.
Some jockeys excel on heavy tracks.
A good mud rider will frequently bring a bad horse home.
You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.
The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment.
It is not always the heaviest commission that is collected. The weight of the commission does not make a horse win. A poor man's horse and his $10 speak as loudly as a $10,000 commission from a millionaire. It is the horse that must be considered.
The clocker is something like the scout in the army.
Honest horses, ridden by honest boys, are sometimes beaten by honest trainers. Instructions are given to the riders which mean sure defeat when intended to be for the best.
The resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race and it is correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. Wind and atmosphere have considerable effect on horses that are troubled in their respiratory organs.
Class in a horse is the ability possessed by it to carry its stipulated stake weight, take the track and go the distance that nature intended that it should go.
I figure that two-year-olds can give considerably more weight away to horses in their class, than can horses in the older division excepting in isolated areas.
There is enough natural inconsistency in horse racing without having it forced upon the public by unscrupulous men, yet there is not one-tenth of one per cent, as much crookedness on the turf as it is given credit for.
A horse that is not contented in his stable cannot take on flesh and be happy.
Every horse I ever owned improved after I had him long enough to study his disposition.
A horse expects to race if he is a thoroughbred, just the same as a game chicken is anxious to fight.
When you feel yourself getting out of form then take a rest and freshen up.
What is frequently right in form is wrong in condition. If a horse is not in good condition he might as well be in the stable.
Look for improvement of mares in the fall of the year. They train better and are more consistent.
There are mud riders as well as mud runners in the racing world.
A jockey should not be overloaded with instructions.
It is not bad speculation to pick out two or three sure looking bets and parlay a small amount.
Cut your bets when in a losing streak and increase them when running in a spasm of good luck.
Double your wagers when you have the bookmakers' money in hand.
Condition has more to do with a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries.
A horse in poor condition cannot beat one of his own class.
A high class horse could not win a race with a feather on his back if he is not in condition.
Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.
It is as well to play horses that are in winning form. A horse in winning condition generally repeats or runs into the money.
Different tracks cause decided changes in form frequently. Study horses' whims and fancies for certain tracks and you will see a good "lay" or a good "play." But a high class horse will do his best on any track.
The less one thinks of crookedness and trickery in racing the more successful will be his handicapping.
Look for defect in your own calculating rather than cheating of others.
Learn to finance your money to advantage.
Know when to put a good bet down and when not to.
___________________
Quotations from the
'Racing Maxims and Methods of "Pittsburgh Phil" ' Copyright 1908
by Edward W. Cole, Turf Editor of the New York Evening Telegram.

[JBmadera]

I would add Beyer, Crist (esp Exotic Betting) and Wilson (psy of thoroughbred handicapping) to your reading list.

I use HTR. After many, many years of using the DRF and pen and paper I didn't think I would be able to make the switch to software but now I would be totally lost without Robot! Since the days/times when I can play the races change all the time I love being able to have a single source and format for my handicapping information regardless of which tracks I am playing. I know that lot's of guys on this forum use the other programs and have a lot of success with them.

Lastly, I would watch LOTS of races. Between all the cable shows, plus the internet, replays are available for virtually every race.

best of luck,

jb

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Always think VALUE. Picking winners is not the answer to making money (except the isolated few). Think of every bet as if you are in a grocery store and the price that you are taking on a horse should be in comparison with a product for sale. This attitude will force discipline to wait for and wager only on the situations where you are getting the best of the prices... as a rule never take the worst of the percentages.

The problem for most handicappers (including myself), is that during losing streaks the tendency is their to try to cash a winner instead of sticking to the value plan...picking a winner tends to satisfy our depleted bankroll but it is like putting a bandaid on a gapping wound. Stick to the value/selectivity plan 100% of the time (otherwise you have no plan).

Dealing with losing streaks properly is one of the greatest edges a horseplayer can have. I have had the priviledge of seeing real 'pros' in New York who have at times been bogged down in real series losing periods only to rebound and gain all their losses and back into the profit area. And some of these guys barely has their confidence shaken...amazing!

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

Well I would not exactly say I'm "new". I've been playing recreationally for years, but very seldom. I'd really like to get into it for real now.

I'd like advice on whether to stick with my current plan or not. Currently, I'm planning to (already started really) dust off all my old handicapping books by Quinn, Mitchell, Glendon Jones, Brohamer, Davidowitz, Scott etc from the late 80's / early 90's and buy the most recent versions of these books for any that have been updated. As well as purchase the latest books I don't have which are quite a few obviously. Then I'm planning to handicap the good old fashioned way, with a form and pen and pencil and calculator until I feel like it's all second nature, BEFORE jumping into computerized handicapping. I figure if I do this, I'll have a real fundamental understanding of what the computer is spitting out. Conversely, I could still read all the books but jump immediately into computerized handicapping and learn / practice that way. Paper and pencil might leave me understanding a lot more at a fundamental level, but starting out with software and all the books, I'd still understand what everything meant and how to use it I assume. Is it worth the extra time to get a super solid grasp on everything mechanically with paper and pencil first though? Or would that just be a waste of time which could be better spent reading the books and putting the massive amount of paper and pencil learning time exclusively into the software?

Lastly, any advice on what software might be most appropriate for the new handicapper? I've read about HSH, HTR, RDSS, Jcapper, HorSense, Black Magic, etc. Eventually I'm sure I'll try all of these out and work with the program or programs that I like best. I watched the Black Magic DVD and that in particular looks pretty spectacular to me. It looks so clean and refined, like an application from a large company really. Plus Michael Pizolla includes an ungodly amount of DVD instruction with it (perhaps another reason to not worry about mastery of paper and pencil handicapping first?) Whether or not it *looks* better though is less important to me than what program I might best be using as a beginner if it's something other than Black Magic.

Any and all advice appreciated!

Doug aka Lateralus

picking winners is just as important as getting value!...having one without the other is still a losing proposition....the harder part i believe is determining just what value is!i am a recreational/serious handicapper with a family(3 in college)wife and full time + job i do make an odds line but i am not sure if the %'s i assign each horse are accurate...i like to handicap the old fashioned way using bris ultimate with comments....even though i use the computer to get these i do not use it to handicap...good luck with your software to me the fun is using my brain to choose the horses i will figure out the odds line making too.. when i have more time to make an analytical study

[DanG]

This won’t be popular, but I would seriously give all your handicapping books away and / or sell them on EBay. (Except those that stress wagering; I.e. Cramer) I would get an HDW subscription (HTR is my choice as JB said, but all their clients seem to be excellent)

I would study some popular day trading works, game theory in poker and all the risk / reward / probability studies I could find.

Long story short; I would travel a unique path in a game where so many march in step. You actually have an advantage in some respects in that you don’t carry the years of wagering scars and the time honored racing theory that is ingrained in so many. You have a clean slate and it might pay-off to start without the foundation most of your competition bets from.

Best of luck Doug!

[HUSKER55]

DAN, that is a very valid point. There is an art to wagering that is just as important as determining the winner.

[markgoldie]

Hey Doug. You'll get a lot of responses on this thread because there's something about gamblers and egomania that seem to go hand in hand. LOL.

On the positive side, we as a group, tend to hold nothing much back. We'll tell you what we know free of charge.

So, for my two cents: This may sound a bit crazy, but I think the difference between winning players and losing players has a whole lot less to do with the sophistication of the information they are using and a whole lot more to do with their own mental makeup.

To put it as concisely as I can, you have to learn to lose before you can hope to learn how to win. Why? Well, lots of posters here and lots of books will tell you that the only way to win is to bet for value. Another way of saying the same thing is that you need to look for overlays. Clearly this is true and doesn't deserve the long, drawn-out explanation that beginners' books will give you.

But here's what they DON'T tell you: Playing consistently for value means that you will have to consistently make wagers on propositions that you really and truly feel will most likely lose. THAT'S what's tough to learn and to do because it is completely counterintuitive. However, (and here's the good part) since it is so very difficult, it is the single greatest error made by the general wagering public. Furthermore, it is one of the two biggest wagering anomalies that create consistent market inefficiencies which may be exploited for ongoing profit. (The other is the public's inability to cover a representative sample of possibilities in complex wagering gimmicks.)

Now. Since you will have to make wagers that you expect to lose, you must realize going in that you will sustain losing streaks far longer than the chalk player who restricts his wagers to the most likely outcome at all times. So you will lose lots more than the average bettor, even though you are probably (and hopefully) a superior handicapper to the average.

Okay. So you need a bigger bankroll, etc., etc. And you must expect to lose, blah, blah, blah. All easy enough to say. But only certain types of personalities can carry it off. I truly believe that. Why? Because the white-knuckle rooters getting the endorphin blast every time their money is at risk simply don't have a chance to pull the long-term thing off. They'll never be able to bet to lose.

As for HOW to find value? Well, this post isn't meant to be a technical paper. However, here's a real shorthand way which also, I think, captures the principle. Ask yourself how many times you have made a larger-than-normal wager on a heavy favorite, trying to recoup earlier losses. When the horse loses, you say "I KNEW IT!" This was a sucker bet! A drop-down claimer at the wrong distance. Or off a 28-day layoff without the usual workout. Or high final figs without fast pace numbers. Whatever.

Well, here's a place to start. Start by betting against these scenarios rather than on them. Use every trap you've ever walked into as a starting point for value betting.

Good luck. Let us know how you're making out. Mark

[shoelessjoe]

1) Read Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane and Ray Taulbot's stuff

2)Get yourself a good set of figures preferably CJ'S if he is taking on new people.

3)Racing Form

4)red pen

5)stick to 1 track and know your circuit

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Hey Doug. You'll get a lot of responses on this thread because there's something about gamblers and egomania that seem to go hand in hand. LOL.

On the positive side, we as a group, tend to hold nothing much back. We'll tell you what we know free of charge.

So, for my two cents: This may sound a bit crazy, but I think the difference between winning players and losing players has a whole lot less to do with the sophistication of the information they are using and a whole lot more to do with their own mental makeup.

To put it as concisely as I can, you have to learn to lose before you can hope to learn how to win. Why? Well, lots of posters here and lots of books will tell you that the only way to win is to bet for value. Another way of saying the same thing is that you need to look for overlays. Clearly this is true and doesn't deserve the long, drawn-out explanation that beginners' books will give you.

But here's what they DON'T tell you: Playing consistently for value means that you will have to consistently make wagers on propositions that you really and truly feel will most likely lose. THAT'S what's tough to learn and to do because it is completely counterintuitive. However, (and here's the good part) since it is so very difficult, it is the single greatest error made by the general wagering public. Furthermore, it is one of the two biggest wagering anomalies that create consistent market inefficiencies which may be exploited for ongoing profit. (The other is the public's inability to cover a representative sample of possibilities in complex wagering gimmicks.)

Now. Since you will have to make wagers that you expect to lose, you must realize going in that you will sustain losing streaks far longer than the chalk player who restricts his wagers to the most likely outcome at all times. So you will lose lots more than the average bettor, even though you are probably (and hopefully) a superior handicapper to the average.

Okay. So you need a bigger bankroll, etc., etc. And you must expect to lose, blah, blah, blah. All easy enough to say. But only certain types of personalities can carry it off. I truly believe that. Why? Because the white-knuckle rooters getting the endorphin blast every time their money is at risk simply don't have a chance to pull the long-term thing off. They'll never be able to bet to lose.

As for HOW to find value? Well, this post isn't meant to be a technical paper. However, here's a real shorthand way which also, I think, captures the principle. Ask yourself how many times you have made a larger-than-normal wager on a heavy favorite, trying to recoup earlier losses. When the horse loses, you say "I KNEW IT!" This was a sucker bet! A drop-down claimer at the wrong distance. Or off a 28-day layoff without the usual workout. Or high final figs without fast pace numbers. Whatever.

Well, here's a place to start. Start by betting against these scenarios rather than on them. Use every trap you've ever walked into as a starting point for value betting.

Good luck. Let us know how you're making out. Mark

whenever i find myself falling into arut of choosing the samre losing horses as the public i know i need to step away and take a break...absolutely spot on it is very hard to make a bet you know will only win once in five tries especially if this is not your top selection.....you have to pass the race when the favorite is solid and offers no value

[dav4463]

Keep records of every race you handicap. Study it every day. Find out where your profits come from. Play these situations when they occur again. Avoid situations where you are showing a loss.

[ranchwest]

1) Books. Sell all of them but one. Take it down to the river and throw it in. Develop your own style.

2) Paper vs. computer. Winners usually come from between the ears of the handicapper. Given that, you can win either way. Why not have the additional information available from the computer? You're still going to need to think, so why not have more to ponder?

Learn to find contenders and phonies. When you can't determine the contenders and the phonies, it's a sure pass.

Every race is its own puzzle.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by shoelessjoe

1) Read Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane and Ray Taulbot's stuff

2)Get yourself a good set of figures preferably CJ'S if he is taking on new people.

3)Racing Form

4)red pen

5)stick to 1 track and know your circuit

#5 is the best advice. Understanding trainers (& I don't mean Formulator or Bris categorical stats) is more important now than ever (for a number of reasons).

Given the takeout and shrinking pool of unsophisticated players you have to do things differently to make money. It is not about picking winners as much bet structuring and money management. Finding overlays to fill out exotics for example. I would recommend Crist's book on Exotic Betting.

I wouldn't bother with the traditioanl handicapping literature review (and I'm an academic). This isn't a Ph.D. dissertation, but about winning & making good use of your time. Those books are all MOTO and following them will get you to around an 18% loss. Better to spend your time handicapping.

Working with figures gives some idea of form cycle--also Pizzola's BLAM is mainly based on form cycle and pace. Both good ways to go.

If you want to do a lit review, I'd focus on fig handicapping. I'd suggest Len Ragozin's The Odds Must be Crazy and Carey Fotias' Blinkers Off.

Finally, I wouldn't use a red pen (#4)--they aren't allowed on Wall Street Trading Desks--bad luck--red=loss. Stick to black or blue.

[Tom]

Go down to the river and pick up a couple of books ()
Ainslie's Complete Guide and Davidowitz's Betting Thoroughbreds.
Both are general enough to cover most aspects of the game and give you basic exposure to many windows into it. Although older books, they can be a good foundation to build on. Like RW says, develop your own style, but you need to find out what you are comfortable with. I am basically a pace handicapper, but I use class, form, trainer, to identify which horses are likely to run their A races today.

But this is the place to learn - search the archives in the Handicapping forum.