FORMUA'S 213 RACE DATA BASE STUDY

[formula_2002]

THE DATA BASE CONTAINS TOTE BOARD INFORMATION ON THE TOP FOUR SELECTED HORSES, WHICH ARE GENERALLY THOSE SELECTED BY THE BETTING PUBLIC AT ANYWHERE FROM ONE MINUET TO ACTUAL POST TIME. AN ATTEMPT IS MADE TO MAKE THE SELECTIONS WITH TIME TO PLACE A BET.
THE WIN PROBABILITY OF EACH HORSE IS DETERMINED BY SUMMING THE WIN PLACE AND SHOW POOL DOLLARS AND THEN NORMALIZING THAT FIGURE INTO THE PERCENT WIN PROBABILITY.
THE MINUM PERCENT PROBABILITY CONSIDERED FOR EACH HORSE IS 10%.
A MATRIX IS CONSTRUCTED LISTING THE WIN PROBABILITY FOR EACH SELECTED HORSE.
LINE MATRIX IS THEN SUMMNED AND MULTIPLIED BY THE HORES’S WIN %
THIS FIGURE IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE “BET SIZE”.
FOR DISPLAY PURPOSES, THE BET SIZES ARE THEN NORMALIZED TO 1, ALLOWING THE TOTAL BET TO BE 1 UNIT
THE ANALYSIS AND RESULTS FOR THESE PLAYS IN REPRESENTED IN 60 COLUMNS OF EXCELL. IN SETS OF THE FOUR SELECTED HORSES.
COLUMN HEADINGS IN HORSE RANK ORDER:
DATE
PGNO
BET SIZE
$1 TRACK WIN PAYOUT
TRACK, RACE #, POST TIME, EXACTA POOL ETC.
RECORD COUNTER
NUMBER OF RACES
WIN INDICATOR
THE REST OF COLUMNS ARE FOR ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

RESULTS:
WITHOUT ANY ANALYSIS FOR ALL TOP FOUR HORSES
213 RACES, 167 WINS, FLAT BET $1 RETURN OF $0.79, BET SIZE RETURN OF $0.82

WITH ANALYSIS
1ST RANKED, 43 RACES, 15 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.94
2ND RANKED (CONDITION 1), 116 RACES, 23 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.01
2ND RANKED (CONDITION 2), 140 RACES, 34 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.95
3RD RANKED, 78 RACES, 17 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.21
4TH RANKED, 162 RACES, 13 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.95

[Track Collector]

I am not here to rain on your parade, but to caution that the listed sample sizes for WITH ANALYSIS are quite small to be statistically significant. Experience has taught me and I'm sure many others that appealing ROIs are difficult to improve upon or even maintain as the number of sample races increases. If you are on to something it will be evident when the number of sample races progress thru the totals of 500, 1000, 1500, and 2500. And even at totals like 2500, there exits some levels of risk that the favorable ROIs are still the result of random factors ("luck") rather than the results of one's specified criteria.

And given that you are in the "validation" phase, meaning that you are evaluating how a defined selection criteria does going forward, I'm sure you understand that should you make any running change to your selection criteria during the "validation" phase, then the sample size will need to be reset back to zero, because true validation measures going forward, and does not including any "back fitting".

Good luck and feel free to keep us informed as to how this does going forward!


P.S. Changes apply not only to horse selection criteria, but to one's wagering strategy/criteria as well.

[formula_2002]

completely understood .

added 25 races to the data base today
10 wins, $2500 (normalized) bet $2416 returned for a $1 return on $0.97.

there are two ways I track results
one is to normalize the multiple bets.

the other not to normalize.
in that case 28 2nd rank plays returned $1.19 on the dollar
the 20 4th ranked plays returned $0.95 on the dollar'

4 top ranked win bets and 9 3rd ranked bets tanked

[formula_2002]

RESULTS FOR 10-23-2018

added 24 races to the data base today
6 wins, $2400 (normalized) bet, $996 returned for a $1 return on $0.42.


there are two ways I track results
one is to normalize the multiple bets.

the other not to normalize.
in that case, 12 2nd rank plays returned $0.96 on the dollar
the 22 4th ranked plays returned $0..15 on the dollar'

[formula_2002]

RESULTS FOR 259 RACES

1ST RANKED, 54 BETS, 16 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.82
2ND RANKED, 170 BETS, 42 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.97
3RD RANKED, 95 BETS, 18 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.00
4TH RANKED, 216 BETS, 19 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.84

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

RESULTS FOR 259 RACES

1ST RANKED, 54 BETS, 16 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.82
2ND RANKED, 170 BETS, 42 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.97
3RD RANKED, 95 BETS, 18 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.00
4TH RANKED, 216 BETS, 19 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.84

HERE IS THE BAD NEWS
WHEN THE TOP 3 RETURNS FOR THE 2ND RANK HORSE ARE ELEMINATED THE $1 RETURN BECOMES $0.84

SAME THING IS TRUE FOR THE 3RD RANK HORSES

SO UNLESS THE NEXT 259 RACES CAN PROVIDE SIMILAR RETURNS FOR THE TOP THREE RETURNS, THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO THE PLAYS.

I HAVE THOUSANDS OF RECORED TOTE BOARD RACES TO TEST.

[formula_2002]

RESULTS FOR 289 RACES


2ND RANKED, 197 BETS, 50 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.96
3RD RANKED, 108 BETS, 21WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.05

[bobphilo]

I recall a study I read a while back involving a huge sample collected over a long period that showed that in the long run horses tend to win in accordance to their odds with R.O.I.s showing similar results. The 2 exceptions were short price horses doing slightly better than their odds and extreme long shots worse. This makes sense as the betting public is pretty astute in their handicapping and short prices often deter many bettors while the dream of a big payoff attracts bettors.
I think your results so far are in line with this with the top 4 choices beating the takeout by similar amounts needing only a small improvement by considering other factors to be profitable. Keep up the good work and good luck in your continuing study.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I recall a study I read a while back involving a huge sample collected over a long period that showed that in the long run horses tend to win in accordance to their odds with R.O.I.s showing similar results. The 2 exceptions were short price horses doing slightly better than their odds and extreme long shots worse. This makes sense as the betting public is pretty astute in their handicapping and short prices often deter many bettors while the dream of a big payoff attracts bettors.
I think your results so far are in line with this with the top 4 choices beating the takeout by similar amounts needing only a small improvement by considering other factors to be profitable. Keep up the good work and good luck in your continuing study.

YOU RECALL CORRECTLY.
MORE DATA IS INDICATING MY 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES ARE DOING VERY WELL. (A $1 RETURN >=$.95)
THANKS

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

YOU RECALL CORRECTLY.
MORE DATA IS INDICATING MY 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES ARE DOING VERY WELL. (A $1 RETURN >=$.95)
THANKS

Glad things are getting back to normal as your study progresses. I suspect that those top 3 returns you removed were not the outliers they had appeared to be when you removed them. In any case, the larger sample seems to have cleared that up. For what it's worth, sometimes when the results look fishy it may be useful to calculate the median as well as the mean (average) in case the distribution is skewed with extreme values. I always like to see the median in studies, just in case

[formula_2002]

HERE ARE CHARTS FOR 2ND AND 3RD RANKED HORSE BET DOLLARS VS RETURNED DOLLARS.

LOOKS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

HERE ARE CHARTS FOR 2ND AND 3RD RANKED HORSE BET DOLLARS VS RETURNED DOLLARS.

LOOKS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

Very good indeed. Just think how many bettors disadvantage themselves by automatically throwing out 2nd and 3rd ranked horses as being too low priced to offer value.

Well done.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

HERE ARE CHARTS FOR 2ND AND 3RD RANKED HORSE BET DOLLARS VS RETURNED DOLLARS.

LOOKS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

YES, IT IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. CHART IS NOT ACCURATE. THERE IS PROFIT BUT NOT THAT MUCH.

[formula_2002]

2ND RANKED HORSE RESULTS CHART

[formula_2002]

3RD RANKED HORSE RESULTS CHART