Tonalist

[depalma113]

I played both Commissioner and Medal Count underneath in my exotics. I just blew it with the winner. I thought California Chrome wouldn't lose but if he did, I didn't think it would be to Tonalist.

[ArlJim78]

I wanted to like Tonalist because of his Gulfstream race, but said that I didn't trust the 103 Beyer in the Peter Pan. The Belmont Beyer came back at 100 so I stand by that, certainly there was nothing hidden in the Peter Pan number. I have to say it but there is no way Tonalist or Commissioner would have beaten California Chrome had Matterhorn not stepped on his foot at the gate. Espinoza said he felt nothing right from the start so he didn't go to the front, yet he still was less than two lengths from the win at the wire. Should a rematch occur I'd most likely take California Chrome in a heartbeat over Tonalist or Commissioner.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Good call EMD4ME and pele polo, who started this thread!!

Thank you sir. I wish all of them worked out this way

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by depalma113

In the last 36 years, only two horses have won the Peter Pan and the Belmont, AP Indy and Coastal.

Heeeee heeeee and now there are 3

Dig in baby!!!

Almost a month later and still very proud of this horse! Looked almost impossible that he would pull it out at the 1/4 but he did

[Thomas Roulston]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I wanted to like Tonalist because of his Gulfstream race, but said that I didn't trust the 103 Beyer in the Peter Pan. The Belmont Beyer came back at 100 so I stand by that, certainly there was nothing hidden in the Peter Pan number. I have to say it but there is no way Tonalist or Commissioner would have beaten California Chrome had Matterhorn not stepped on his foot at the gate. Espinoza said he felt nothing right from the start so he didn't go to the front, yet he still was less than two lengths from the win at the wire. Should a rematch occur I'd most likely take California Chrome in a heartbeat over Tonalist or Commissioner.

It depends on the distance of said rematch; the longer it is, the more I'd like Tonalist over either California Chrome or Commissioner.

[sbcaris]

The idea that California Chrome would have beaten Tonalist if Matterhorn did not step on his foot is a guess. It is possible he might have won the Triple Crown but in my estimation the fact that Chrome raced in all three events was the big reason for his defeat and the defeat of the last 11 horses that came into the Belmont after winning the first two legs of the crown. It is a major factor that defeats them. Running in all three races at route distances against different horses each time is just too tough of a task. How many of todays horses ever run in three major route races other than Triple Crown events within a 5 week period? NONE!

[pandy]

The main reason he didn't win the Triple Crown is, he isn't a great horse, and he's never run a race that gave any indication that he was a great horse. But, he tried hard and gave us some excitement.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by pandy

The main reason he didn't win the Triple Crown is, he isn't a great horse, and he's never run a race that gave any indication that he was a great horse. But, he tried hard and gave us some excitement.

Well put. I agree 10000%

If we handicapped his derby and Preakness as if they were 5000 claimers, no one would say, WOW this horse ran giant. He had fine runs in both races but had stress free trips vs. nominal competition. He performed well in 'positive' circumstances. Throw him against the grain or give him a below average trip and he gets exposed as a non-superstar.

[sbcaris]

I disagree with the above analysis. In my estimation running in all three events is the kiss of death. 3 major route events within 5 weeks is unheard of in modern times. Who was the last runner to win the Belmont after running in all three legs of the crown? Afleet Alex.

In the last 14 years there were 13 Belmont stakes winners that did not race in all three legs (Derby, Preakness and Belmont). Its a matter of wear and tare. Their worn out by the third leg so close in time to the first two legs.

The last 12 horses that won the first two legs all lost in the Belmont stakes.
Enough said!

[pandy]

California Chrome had 4 weeks off (after the S.A. Derby) prior to the Kentucky Derby, which means that he ran 3 races in 9 weeks. People always forget about the rest period prior to the Derby. He did not lose because he was tired. He trained sensationally prior to the Belmont and he looked better than ever on the track, he even gained some weight. He was dead fit and ready for the Belmont. He just got beat. Maybe it was the distance, maybe it was the cut on his foot, maybe it just wasn't good enough that day. He had no excuses, he ran gamely but got beat. He could not have been better prepared for that race, the workouts and his attitude on the track clearly showed that he was in great shape. Not all horses get worn out by that schedule.

[ILovetheInner]

There are a lot of reasons why he could have lost. Horses can train forwardly and lose. TC winners can't lose, and that's why they are so rare. It could be as simple as having perfect position in the first two legs and not so in the Belmont....but if you need perfect position, you don't win the TC. It could be that he was pooped....but that doesn't win the TC, either. It could be the grabbed quarter, but plenty of horses have run big with one, so out the door goes that one, too. He got beat. And the top two finishers were new faces in the TC. Make of that what you will.

Tonalist's number in the Belmont means little. Rating him off that would mean Paynter and Palace Malice would have run back poorly, too. It's a long race for which these horses are no longer bred, often run in odd fashion.

There's no reason to think Tonalist won't run back strong. He's got room to grow, so my vote is if there is change in him, odds are more to the positive side of the column. I highly doubt he is one of those Belmont winners who never makes noise again. This is a nice colt. Chrome has the tougher road to handle, taking a break and returning into deeper waters. The Belmont is done. If he is what his fanship says he was, he wins. And if he does not, the validity of being a TC winner gets proven out once again.

I was definitely humbled by Slew, and via him by the TC itself, because his year seemed too easy. Wasn't sure what he was beating. Thought maybe he was a very nice horse....not great.....who got lucky. And then his campaign to follow proved what was what. In retrospect, I respect the trouble he had in the Derby far more and now wiser see anyone with his ability but who was not Slew would not have won that race. TC horses get it done, and the rest do not. Hope that holds forever true.

Now it's back to the world of normal racing, where we'll see these colts sort it out

[pandy]

I watched Seattle Slew's Derby win again today. He was something else. He slammed into the gate at the start and then had to rush up, got into a speed duel to a :45.4 half and drew off late. Only one other horse in Derby history went :45.4 to the half and hit the board.