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Old 07-22-2014, 06:52 PM   #1
horses4courses
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SAR R2 Wed 7-23

Not sure that I have ever seen a 2yo filly with such a "win early" pedigree
as Todd Pletcher's Overspending in tomorrow's second race.

Dam has had seven foals - all winners. They all won at age 2.
As today's youth like to use as a superlative "that's sick"

Repole paid $340K for her this March.
She will be no price, but fun to watch.

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8
Overspending (NA 0)
Own: Repole Stable
7/5 Royal Blue, Orange Circle And 'r,' Orange Sleeves, Two
VELAZQUEZ JOHN R (22 5-3-3 23%)
B. f. 2 (May) OBSMAR 2014 $340k
Sire : Harlan's Holiday (Harlan) $35,000
Dam: Marfa's Squall (Marfa)
Brdr: Reggie Beeson & Tim Beeson (KY)
Trnr: Pletcher Todd A (12 5-2-2 42%)
Life: 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
2014 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
2013 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
SAR 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0 0
Fst (106) 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
Off (105) 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
Dis (105) 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
Trf (108) 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
AW 0 0 - 0 - 0 $0
L 118
+2014 418 18% 48% -0.51
+JKYw/NA types 216 19% 47% -0.50
+JKYw/ Trn L60 48 23% 50% -0.73
+JKYw/ Sprints 114 19% 54% -0.66
+2014 591 24% 56% -0.19
+1st time str 490 26% 53% -0.27
+Debut MdnSpWt 410 28% 56% -0.13
+Maiden Sp Wt 875 29% 58% -0.14
Sire Stats: AWD 7.1 15%Mud 882MudSts 14%1st 1.74spi
Dam'sSire: AWD 7.2 11%Mud 1651MudSts 8%1st 1.42spi
Dam'sStats: Winner 100%2yo 7str 7w 2sw 1.84dpi
SoldAt: OBSMAR 2014 $340.0k (3/36) SireAvg:$132.3k StudFee: $25,000
ñ Dam has 7 winners from 7 starters and 2 stakes winner ñ 28% trainer: Maiden Sp Wt
ñ Sharp 3F workout (Jul-19)
× First time starter
19Jly Sar 3f ft :36ª B 4/20 13Jly Sar 4f ft :48 B 7/40 07Jly Sar 4f ft :48¨ Bg17/50 30Jun Sar 4f ft :48 Bg5/42 23Jun Sar tr.t 4f ft :49 B 2/53 16Jun Sar tr.t 4f ft :50© B 32/64
08Jun Sar tr.t 4f ft :50© B 12/34 01Jun Sar tr.t 3f ft :38© B 11/25 06May Cru 3f ft :37ª B 5/14 22Apr Cru 3f ft :37¨ B 3/9 12Apr Cru 3f ft :37« B 7/27
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Last edited by horses4courses; 07-22-2014 at 06:56 PM.
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Old 07-22-2014, 07:23 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Not sure that I have ever seen a 2yo filly with such a "win early" pedigree
as Todd Pletcher's Overspending in tomorrow's second race.

Dam has had seven foals - all winners. They all won at age 2.
As today's youth like to use as a superlative "that's sick"

Repole paid $340K for her this March.
She will be no price, but fun to watch.
Im not trying to beat her. I could see her being 1-5. Serling and Beer have her on top. Dougie Sal will be picking her in his baby race analysis. She looks like the goods and like you said she should be fun to watch.

Last edited by Thebigguy; 07-22-2014 at 07:26 PM.
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Old 07-22-2014, 07:25 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
Im not trying to beat her. I could see her being 1-5. Serling and Beer have her on top. Dougie Sal will be picking her on his baby race analysis.
Yeah.
Hats off to anyone who beats her.

It's a "sit back and watch" race.
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Old 07-22-2014, 07:30 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Dam has had seven foals - all winners. They all won at age 2.

All seven of her foals won a race -- but only four of them raced (and won) at age 2.

Some of the winners were very cheap horses.

It's a nice useful pedigree, but nothing to get too excited over IMO.

Her 3yo half bro just finished 6th beaten 15 lengths in a 5k N3L claimer at Beltarra Park.

Her 4yo half bro only won a Maiden claiming race at Golden Gate.

Her 5yo half bro has never ran a Beyer higher than 37 in his 14 race career. He was most recently 8th beaten 30 lengths in a $4,000 N2L claimer at Thistle.
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Old 07-22-2014, 07:40 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Sal
All seven of her foals won a race -- but only four of them raced (and won) at age 2.

Some of the winners were very cheap horses.

It's a nice useful pedigree, but nothing to get too excited over IMO.

Her 3yo half bro just finished 6th beaten 15 lengths in a 5k N3L claimer at Beltarra Park.

Her 4yo half bro only won a Maiden claiming race at Golden Gate.

Her 5yo half bro has never ran a Beyer higher than 37 in his 14 race career. He was most recently 8th beaten 30 lengths in a $4,000 N2L claimer at Thistle.

You're getting a lot of love in the social media world as the best public handicapper out there... Congrats.
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Old 07-22-2014, 08:14 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Sal
All seven of her foals won a race -- but only four of them raced (and won) at age 2.

Some of the winners were very cheap horses.

It's a nice useful pedigree, but nothing to get too excited over IMO.

Her 3yo half bro just finished 6th beaten 15 lengths in a 5k N3L claimer at Beltarra Park.

Her 4yo half bro only won a Maiden claiming race at Golden Gate.

Her 5yo half bro has never ran a Beyer higher than 37 in his 14 race career. He was most recently 8th beaten 30 lengths in a $4,000 N2L claimer at Thistle.
I guess Brisnet must be wrong, then.
7 foals, 7 winners, 2 stakes winners, 100% 2yo winners

It's deceptive when they don't break down
the number that actually raced at 2.

Quote:
Dam'sStats: Winner 100%2yo 7str 7w 2sw
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Old 07-22-2014, 09:09 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
You're getting a lot of love in the social media world as the best public handicapper out there... Congrats.
Imo hes easily the best public handicapper in the game..

Last year he tore it up at the spa with timeformUS this year hes on fuego at bris with his 2 year old blog.

Last edited by TheEdge07; 07-22-2014 at 09:20 PM.
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Old 07-22-2014, 09:21 PM   #8
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Imo hes easily the best public handicapper in the game..

Last year he tore it up at the spa with timeformUS this year hes on fuego at bris with his 2 year old blog.

I agree. Just wish he put more out there. Dude is sharp. I like Serling also. I handicap then look at Serling and Beer's picks. Beer has impressed me, he is sharper then I once thought. I guess getting away from DRF helps.
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Old 07-22-2014, 09:35 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
I agree. Just wish he put more out there. Dude is sharp. I like Serling also. I handicap then look at Serling and Beer's picks. Beer has impressed me, he is sharper then I once thought. I guess getting away from DRF helps.
Agree Beer is really good..

DS shoudve his own show..Attacks the game from all different angles..

Bg look up some of DS analysis on you tube..Absolute racing clinic..
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Old 07-22-2014, 09:42 PM   #10
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The Pletcher horse might win, but when looking at my notes from the sale, this horse had 4 bandages in March for her work and appeared to be very large. She moves well, but if she doesn't grow a little taller, she will be a bet against as the distances get longer.
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Old 07-23-2014, 06:55 AM   #11
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Was she already named when Repole bought her in March? He seems to have a thing for spending and shopping in his horses' names.
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Old 07-23-2014, 09:30 AM   #12
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I will pass this race. I use brisnet and find several indicators that Overspending is a toss-out. First, the post position is difficult, especially for a horse that is fts and does not have speed in her breeding; the average winning distance, top and bottom, exceeds 7f, also not good for a 5f sprint; the dam's sire produces only 8% first time start wins. On the plus side, she is half to two stakes winners.
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Old 07-23-2014, 10:56 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
Was she already named when Repole bought her in March? He seems to have a thing for spending and shopping in his horses' names.
She was unnamed when he bought her, so yes Repole came up with the name.
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Old 07-23-2014, 11:34 AM   #14
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I don't bet races of 5f or shorter, period. But personally, I think the 1 is the filly that's bred to most likely come out winging at 5f. Might be placed a little too ambitiously in a Sar MSW but at this distance and age the class aspect of breeding is a little less important. You'll get odds, at least, which you won't get on the Pletcher/Repole filly.
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Old 07-23-2014, 01:06 PM   #15
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No excuse #3 was better.
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