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07-18-2014, 12:43 PM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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formula's exacta play matrix at 2 mtp
A fitting way to keep score is to base all results on a bet size of 1 unit.
In a previous winning exacta play the single bet size was .11.
the sum of all bets was 3.45, the $1 exacta returned $38.10.
therefore .11/3.45 x $38.10 = 1.21
Bet sizes for the various exacta combinations are will be shown within the matrix
Another thing to keep track of is the expected probability of all plays.
if the expected probability is say .50, then the min return
must be 2.00 for the above unit play.
So when wou win that $200 exacta when it should have paid $400, spend the $200 right away..else,  if that be your long term a-e (actual to expected) return you'll go broke .. or you just may wind up posting plays on PA
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 12:59 PM
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#2
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Saratoga
Race
1
Post
1:00
Code:
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$195,952 " 0.90 3 0.192
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 33 111 77 17 32
2 26 35
3 80 54 10 18
4 125 91 100 16 30
5 71 53 87 11 22
6 12 8 11 8 10
7 27 17 21 18
8 13
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1242.58 261.46 32.79 168.93 345.07 256.74 66.19 101.65 9.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 01:32 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Saratoga
Race
2
Code:
Post
1:31
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$144,782 " 1.07 3 0.119
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 36 34
2 43 47 14
3 35 43 35 16 51 14 65
4 36 38 61 13 59
5 14 15 15 20 16
6 65 69 25 18
7 12 12 12 10 12 14
8 69 24 21
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1079.78 96.01 54.60 209.47 278.21 64.81 143.92 79.34 153.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 01:43 PM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Saratoga - Race 2
# Win Place Show
3 $14.00 $7.50 $5.30
7 . $16.80 $7.30
1 . . $5.20
Results: 01 | 02 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 3/7 $170.00
with plays like this, I could stop posting on PA 
setected combinations had a total win probability of 53% Min return would be $1.90 for a $1 play. It returned $2.19, a 1.15 roi!!!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 02:00 PM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Saratoga
Race
3
Code:
Post
2:02
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$113,071 " 0.37 3 0.051
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 53
2
3 111
4 111 286 500
5 222
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1282.79 111.11 0.00 285.71 385.96 500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
when the matrix, looks like this the best play, more often, is a win bet on the 4
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 07-18-2014 at 02:02 PM.
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07-18-2014, 02:12 PM
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#6
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Saratoga - Race 3
# Win Place Show
4 $2.40 $2.10 $2.10
5 . $3.40 $2.20
2 . . $2.40
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 4/5 $2.60
the total exacta probability was .61 requiting a return of 1.63. it returned only 1.01
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 05:15 PM
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#7
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Saratoga
Race
9
Post
5:15
Code:
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$245,832 " 0.00 3 0.291
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 24 286 154 16
2 65
3
4 14 15
5 286 24 118 16
6 50 53 30
7 118 95 36
8 10 9 9
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1425.33 477.17 0.00 0.00 47.92 457.13 35.71 375.01 32.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 06:57 PM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Saratoga - Race 9 Chart
# Win Place Show
5 $5.40 $3.50 $2.60
7 . $4.60 $3.10
1 . . $2.50
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 5/7 $15.80
there was a 67% chance of one of these combinations winning requiring a min return of $1.50. It returned $1.30. That's still money in your pocket, but , perhaps not for long 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 07:02 PM
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#9
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Del Mar
Race
1
Code:
Post
7:00
MTP
0
$1 Exacta Pool
$72,008 " 0.91
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 57
2 118 71
3 133 200
4 48
5
6 200
7 67 118 95
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1106.72 0.00 200.00 482.91 0.00 0.00 352.38 71.43 0.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 07:05 PM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Arlington
Race
7
Post
7:04
MTP
1
Code:
$2 Exacta Pool
$31,357 " 1.27 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 17 31 29 10 12 5 2
2 6 8 6 5 2 3 1 1
3 24 33 8 14 4 2
4 36 10 36 14 21 5 3
5 12 13 5 4
6 5 2
7 9 3 6 13 9 8 6 2 2
8 10 4 12 17 9 6 3 2
9 3 1 3 4 3 4 2 3 1
10 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1
11
12
13
14
15
16
547.53 82.48 19.21 80.41 109.46 58.66 17.67 57.46 72.58 32.74 16.85 0.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 07:12 PM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Arlington - Race 7
# Win Place Show
1 $10.40 $6.60 $4.40
3 . $7.20 $5.00
6 . . $3.80
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 1/3 $79.80
61 % of the pool
min return requires was $1.63
actual return was $1.25
the 3/1 combo would have ebbn a overlay
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 08:21 PM
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#12
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Penn National
Race
6
Post
8:20
MTP
1
$
Code:
2 Exacta Pool
$4,409 " 0.00 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 80
2 38 59
3
4 118
5
6
7 87 154
8
9
10
11
12
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14
15
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 08:28 PM
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#13
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Penn National - Race 6
# Win Place Show
7 $3.60 $2.80 $2.10
2 . $4.40 $2.20
1 . . $2.40
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 7/2 $16.20
60% of the pool
min required return $1.65
actual return $1.31
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 07-18-2014 at 08:29 PM.
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07-18-2014, 08:32 PM
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#14
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Del Mar
Race
4
Post
8:30
MTP
1
Code:
$1 Exacta Pool
$98,121 " 1.56 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 11 14 118 95
2 45 36
3 8 5 9 8 7
4
5 14 22 200 143
6 16 15
7 10 14 13 13
8 133 59 14 222 22 154
9 125 118
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1662.56 151.69 63.90 39.16 0.00 385.43 0.00 57.94 516.42 448.03 0.00 0.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-18-2014, 08:49 PM
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#15
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Penn National
Race
7
Post
8:48
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$5,601 " 0.00 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1
2 74 95 40
3 20
4 22
5 83
6 100 43
7 28 31 34
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
571.47 0.00 211.50 0.00 0.00 105.32 171.16 83.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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