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Old 04-17-2018, 02:03 PM   #16
JohnGalt1
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Always have your handicapping done before you go to the track.

That way you will have a plan of attack on how to bet each race and know ahead of time the races to pass.

Start with a small bankroll.

Even if it's a hobby for you, treat every wagering decision seriously. If you wouldn't bet $200 on a horse, then you shouldn't bet $2.00 on that horse.

You'll read a lot of books, articles and opinions, here and elsewhere that may seem logical, or illogical.

Some advice contradicts with other advice. Always use this factor/never use this factor. And there are a lot of factors for you to determine what's important to you, because it's your money.

When you can determine what advice works for you, you will be on your way.

There at a lot of crappy systems out there. Avoid them.
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Old 04-17-2018, 03:08 PM   #17
Baron Star Gregg
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There's some good advice here so far. Building a handicapping library is essential. A good book will pay for itself many times over. Unfortunately there are a lot of bad books out there but the good ones will pay for them too. Let me add that watching replays, both pan and head on, will help you advance your knowledge quickly. Many "race-book jockeys" blame the pinhead for screwing up the ride and move on to the next bet without ever watching the replay. Playing a single track gives you the ability to watch the replays to see why the race ran as you expected it to or not. You'll also get to know what to expect from any particular jock. The head on replay is a great way to see troubled trips that don't show up in the comments or that are noted by many players.
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Old 04-17-2018, 05:23 PM   #18
BELMONT 6-6-09
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Welcome,

You need to formulate a few ironclad rules at the onset that you never break

(1) Never chase your losses
(2) Always look for value in your wagers
(3) Never switch and change your decisions-you need to wager only with confidence
(4) Fund an operating bankroll and never use money earmarked for living expenses for your betting
(5) Make handicapping and the game an enjoyable experience by constantly learning and acquiring knowledge-but remember this is an ever changing game.

I can go on and on with this list but players much more astute than myself can add more to this list.

Good luck
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:01 PM   #19
Track Phantom
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This is really not for a newer player but thought I'd articulate how I approach a race.

For longer priced horses I try to find excuses. For shorter priced horses I try to find flaws.

I'll give you an example. Last year at Canterbury, there was a maiden claimer for Mn-breds. In the race was a Mac Robertson (leading trainer) first timer with fast works and favored. A little review using DRF Formulator would help you understand that Robertson is not good in debut statebred maiden claimers. You have vulnerability in the favorite.

The 2nd favorite had run a bunch of times at this level and beat most of these (2nd's and 3rd's). However, the horse that beat this 2nd favorite last time out had run 10th beaten 15 lengths in a higher maiden claimer. It just so happened that the horse who finished 6th in that race was in this field and 25-1.

I dug a bit deeper on that runner and realized he had a couple of troubled trips and possibly bled 3 starts earlier (got L1 in the next start). His form was darkened due to some of these "excuses". Finally, he had shown speed in the past and the race wasn't really loaded with speed. He won the race by daylight.

It's not that the horse jumped out on paper. 25-1 shots rarely due. But the combination of vulnerability in lower priced horses and reasonable excuses and hidden form in this longshot presented an edge for the player.
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:09 PM   #20
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First let me say this has gotten way more attention than I ever thought it would. I'd like to thank everyone for taking time to add your thoughts/advice. I really appreciate it and I believe I only got (1) wise @ss remark about being hot and putting the hammer down on my next bets. lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post

PS: Had to Google to figure out what your name meant. LOL
Name stems from my old days on the Full Tilt Poker Forum, pre Black Friday... I use to be big into poker and the forum before it got shut down. Still like poker but really isn't the same without the comrodery of others. Hoping this forum might be sim.

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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post

Read the book, formulate a simple game-plan as a start, handicap the races and compare your opinion to the results...and allow your experiences to guide you down the path to competence in this game. And, above all...be PATIENT. There will be much well-meant advice directed towards you, here and elsewhere...but the advice will likely prove contradictory...and it will only confuse you further. In this game...you -- like all of us -- will have to be a light unto yourself.
Great advice thru-out but loved the last part... Thanks for the heads up on the book and I hope to be reading it by this weekend.

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Originally Posted by AstrosFan View Post

Also, unless you like the feel of the real track experience, I would say bet at home. Most of my biggest hits have come in my own environment, away from the rif raf patrons, especially track management that can't care less if a tote machine is down or a channel isn't changed.
I will hit Saratoga a few times this year but I'm def. a homebody and I liked watching it on my computer. I'll get my fill this summer and maybe by then I might pick a horse for other reasons than I like his/her name. LOL

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Originally Posted by Track Phantom View Post

I would absolutely separate wagering from handicapping. The way I started is really focusing on the handicapping portion, and that passion stays with me to this day. Creative and sharp wagering is a skill all by itself but different. Think driving from the tee-box vs. putting on the green.
Great analogy here and I actually watch a video on this today. Never occurred to me that they are two completely different things... and neither of them is easy to figure out so far.

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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
My question is are you a wet behind the ears 18 year old as I was when I entered the track for the first time March 1, 1975 or are you a bit older and the racing bug hit you a little later.
I'm def. not wet behind the ears. Living in Saratoga I've grown up with basic knowledge of horse racing just never learned how to actually play the game. I actually use to be a bell hop in the late 80's ealry 90's for a place called the Rip Van Dam Hotel. It was a seasonal hotel and in August the place was filled with people who came to Saratoga to play the horses. I use to talk horses with them all the time... kind of miss those days. Anyways I'm now interested in the sport because I see it as a puzzle or a challenge. I like that you can take everything into account and try to predict a winner. I love that challenge... kind of why I like poker as well. Money adds some excitement to it but the big thrill is when you get it right... at least for me.

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Originally Posted by headhawg View Post
First of all, welcome. Second -- you have only been lurking for a week. The most important thing about PA is to figure out which members have something valuable to say and those who are simply full of crap and try to dazzle you with their "brilliance". After you sift through the turds you will find that there is a lot of very good information here, and a good number of members who are willing to help.

If you feel that you're clueless (and btw, that feeling doesn't go away when you have years in the game and are O'fer your last 25) start with what thaskalos posted. Ask your questions, but walk before you run.
I'm well aware of how these kind of forums work, the poker forums are very sim. but thank you for the heads up. Please tell me there is some kind of silver lining at the end of the rainbow when it comes to being clueless. LOL

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1 View Post
Always have your handicapping done before you go to the track.
Again I watched a video today that said the same exact thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Star Gregg View Post
Let me add that watching replays, both pan and head on, will help you advance your knowledge quickly. Many "race-book jockeys" blame the pinhead for screwing up the ride and move on to the next bet without ever watching the replay. Playing a single track gives you the ability to watch the replays to see why the race ran as you expected it to or not. You'll also get to know what to expect from any particular jock. The head on replay is a great way to see troubled trips that don't show up in the comments or that are noted by many players.
This was actually going to be one of my other questions. Was wondering how people use these to help them handicap. I have a feeling it will become clear to me at some point. I'm thinking I need to read the book that thaskalos recommended before I worrying about this now. I do see this being something I want to use tho.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09 View Post
Welcome,

You need to formulate a few ironclad rules at the onset that you never break

(1) Never chase your losses
(2) Always look for value in your wagers
(3) Never switch and change your decisions-you need to wager only with confidence
(4) Fund an operating bankroll and never use money earmarked for living expenses for your betting
(5) Make handicapping and the game an enjoyable experience by constantly learning and acquiring knowledge-but remember this is an ever changing game.

I can go on and on with this list but players much more astute than myself can add more to this list.

Good luck
Great list! #2 & #3 where in a video I watched... I sound like a broken record with this "watched a video sh*t." LOL
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:44 PM   #21
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Welcome to Thunderdome. If possible, try to find a real-life mentor if you're new to racing. It's fun and educational to actually get out to the track and watch a few races and how your picks run in the actual race. Although you can watch replays online, it's fun to watch a race through binoculars, as videos stay on leaders for the most part. By watching a race live you'll pick up things that won't get published in the results charts.
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Old 04-18-2018, 09:19 AM   #22
headhawg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaecubed View Post
I'm well aware of how these kind of forums work, the poker forums are very sim. but thank you for the heads up. Please tell me there is some kind of silver lining at the end of the rainbow when it comes to being clueless. LOL
You have to make your own silver lining i.e., your own long-term goal. From your posts you seem to have a solid foundation and realistic expectations. This game is effing hard to beat -- there are no shortcuts. And the long road may still be the wrong road. There have been a lot of good suggestions in this thread so far but many of them I feel are of the "do them later" variety. I like the idea of finding a mentor, but that could go sideways and you could learn all the things not to do. Well, maybe that's not a bad result either as long as you keep an open mind going forward.

You should definitely read good handicapping books in order to learn terminology and fundamental concepts. I know that there are some threads about books for noobs. Go to the Library section or use the search feature as sometimes those discussions are in other sections of the board. Much like picking the winning Derby horse, there will be a lot of opinions about which books are best. Pick a couple that sound interesting to you.
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Old 04-18-2018, 10:37 AM   #23
Immortal6
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I've only been seriously handicapping and following racing for about a year and a half. Before that I'd kind of grown up with horses, going to the track with my dad and his friends, etc. but hadn't taken it seriously. I would look at a form and pick a horse with the highest speed figure and the best trainer/jock percentages.

In the year and a half since I've been on this board I have learned so much. Like others have said, delve into literature and figure out whose opinions are worth something on here. But above all, practice... a lot. Here is some advice from a fellow newbie.

-Try not to follow others bets and selections blindly. I'm still guilty of doing this from time to time, but have found much more often than not that this is a poor practice. At least if you lose a bet you'll have formed your own opinion of the race.

-As another member said, try to handicap races before you go to the track. Or if you're at home, I usually shoot for having the race handicapped before the previous one is ran.

-If you handicap the races before heading to the track be aware of changes in track bias and don't be afraid to go back and make changes to your selections based on that bias... Was there a closer you liked in the 7th race but front runners have been dominating that day? Take the opportunity to go back and look at the pps for horses with some speed. I've lost too much money being too stubborn to re-handicap a race when I think there may be some bias.

-Another poster mentioned: Don't chase your losses. I will add, don't chase your wins either. it sounds like you have a system of how much to wager on each race. Try to stick to it. Just because you're on a hot streak doesn't mean you should start placing $20 win bets when you normally place $5 bets.
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Old 04-18-2018, 10:43 AM   #24
spiketoo
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The only thing to remember about jocks is that a good jock can't make a bad horse win, but a suspect jock can make a good horse lose.

Mazol tov!
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Old 04-18-2018, 11:35 AM   #25
Pensacola Pete
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The only attention I pay to jockeys is to possibly gauge trainer intent. Otherwise, they aren't relevant to me. Others may have a different view.
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Old 04-18-2018, 12:25 PM   #26
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When I saw this tread I had a idea of what would happen, and that was you were going to get a lot of different opinions. You did. None of them are wrong. You got some solid handicappers here, it is a good forum.

I try to download the form as early as possible, the reason I do that is that I do not want a ML. Start with the conditions, and go through the race quickly to get a general feel for the race. Then go back through it one horse at a time and try to get a line on each horse.

As far as jockeys go, good jockeys get the better horses and ride for the better trainers, in general. When a good jockey gets on what looks like a below average horse for a small trainer, pay attention.

Good luck.
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Old 04-18-2018, 01:55 PM   #27
biggestal99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaecubed View Post



I'm def. not wet behind the ears. Living in Saratoga I've grown up with basic knowledge of horse racing just never learned how to actually play the game. I actually use to be a bell hop in the late 80's ealry 90's for a place called the Rip Van Dam Hotel. It was a seasonal hotel and in August the place was filled with people who came to Saratoga to play the horses. I use to talk horses with them all the time... kind of miss those days. Anyways I'm now interested in the sport because I see it as a puzzle or a challenge. I like that you can take everything into account and try to predict a winner. I love that challenge... kind of why I like poker as well. Money adds some excitement to it but the big thrill is when you get it right... at least for me.

well making money at horse racing is one hell of a challenge. Notice I did not say picking winners. just about every handicapper can pick a winner
I for one concentrate on one thing and one thing only, making money. However I can. wherever I can. and thats my challenge how do I outsmart other people and take their cash playing the ponies. Very difficult but very rewarding. I love horseracing. I love the human element of it. the owners, the trainers, the jocks, the mistakes they make and the successes they have.

Allan
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Old 04-18-2018, 08:35 PM   #28
Jaecubed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete View Post
The only attention I pay to jockeys is to possibly gauge trainer intent. Otherwise, they aren't relevant to me. Others may have a different view.
I've heard this a lot the past few days about trainers intent... could someone elaborate on this? I'll do some research on it as well but I thought I would ask here as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
As far as jockeys go, good jockeys get the better horses and ride for the better trainers, in general. When a good jockey gets on what looks like a below average horse for a small trainer, pay attention. Good luck.
Does this mean this is a horse I should consider? I'm assuming the jokey knows something the rest of us don't? Just want to clarify the advise on this one.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6 View Post

-Try not to follow others bets and selections blindly. I'm still guilty of doing this from time to time, but have found much more often than not that this is a poor practice. At least if you lose a bet you'll have formed your own opinion of the race.
I think I'm actually going to start a new thread on this as I have a question about "track experts" and their thoughts/picks.
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Old 04-18-2018, 09:06 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Jaecubed View Post
Does this mean this is a horse I should consider? I'm assuming the jokey knows something the rest of us don't? Just want to clarify the advise on this one.
They might know something, it might be the trainer thinks the last couple of jockeys have not broke the horse well from the gate. You have to consider that the agent might have got the jockey an a better horse the trainer has and the trainer said he has to ride this one also. Sort of a guessing game, but you should always ask yourself Why? If you find a reason, then go with it.

At Fonner Park, for a long time the leading jockey was Perry Compton, who was very good out of the gate. Caught him more that a few times at good odds, just because he suddenly showed up on a bad horse, who had decent gate speed.
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