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Old 04-19-2018, 08:18 PM   #151
iamt
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They have the pool at around 20,000 (and the 5 at 2-1) at 0MTP and it closed with about 48,000 (and the 5 just creeping over).
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Old 04-19-2018, 10:52 PM   #152
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A classic example of CWT in action. I was paying attention to EVD tonight and this race really caught my eye. The last dump was the highest of the night, and the results show a thing or two. I came to the conclusion or assumption that about 70% of the money bet on the top 4 horses, in the last dump, was from CWT's. You can mess with that % up or down, and still see about the same result.

EVD Race #7:

When the horses loaded into the gate the win pool was $22,442.00, the final win pool was $45,643.00.

The top 4 choices in the last dump, odds at the gate.

4/1
5/1
17/1
9/5

70% of the amount wagered in the last dump:

$4800.00
$1700.00
$2200.00
$3700.00

Total: $12,400.00

Final Odds and Amount that would be won in the horse won.

5/2 $17,280.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $18,024.00
6/1 $11,900.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $12,644.00
24/1 $55,000.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $55,744.00
2/1 $11,100.00 +6% rebate $744.00 = $11,844.00

The worst outcome was loosing $556.00, the best outcome was winning $43,344.00.

The 4 won, and was the highest bet horse in the last dump.

Last edited by jay68802; 04-19-2018 at 10:59 PM. Reason: not done
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Old 04-20-2018, 01:59 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by iamt View Post
http://www.buildabet2.com/ include an odds graph if you click on a race, by runner.
Never heard of this site before...but it's a pretty cool tool to check odds movement on any particular horse (of the tracks they cover).

Is this a tool of some ADW or is it an ADW itself? It looks like you can bet on there...is it some off shore outfit?
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Old 04-20-2018, 03:04 AM   #154
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Never heard of this site before...but it's a pretty cool tool to check odds movement on any particular horse (of the tracks they cover).

Is this a tool of some ADW or is it an ADW itself? It looks like you can bet on there...is it some off shore outfit?
https://www.greyhoundchannel.com/

They have been around for ever. Think it was Derby Lane, PBKC and Jax on some venture - not 100% sure.

Want to say I was using them before Youbet even came into existence.
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Old 04-20-2018, 10:33 AM   #155
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Quote:
TRACK PHANTOM WROTE:

I do think there are players that have a major edge over others but do not believe there is an algorithm that does the work for you. That is something, after spending 32 years reading and studying this game like a crazy man, that I find improbable. However, I'm all ears and eyes to some proof to back up the "don't ya think" or "how hard is it to believe" arguments being pushed forward.
There isn's AN ALGORITHM that "does the work." There are multiple ones that do, and "the work" is data processing. Algorithms are better at it than you or I are. As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here. I'm surprised that some are still underestimating the impact of automation going on in all sectors of society, and in the financial sectors (including horse racing) most obviously. Automation is set to replace nearly half of all current jobs in the next couple of decades - its remaking whole areas of social life, not just pari-mutuel wagering.

I could point to a million example of how algorithms are being deployed, but the main point is that so long as there is an asymmetry of resources related to their use, there will be asymmetrical outcomes. Automatic decision-making structures REINFORCE INEQUALITY, and in horse racing, where there are whales and the rest of us, it is only more obviously the case. I cannot get ADWs to bend to my wishes; whales can. I cannot get the rebates they can. And I cannot invest in the proprietary, extremely fine-grained decisional softwares, and neither can most of you, but they can and do.

"Big data" surveillance of the kind whales can perform on horses across multiple tracks in real time gives an advantage that can never be matched without similar resources. It is all about processing power, the isolation of meaningful variables and the modeling that can be built from it. The bigger the data sets and the processing power, the more likely one is to find and be able to exploit a hidden pattern.

What PA doesn't realize is that he will never beat them by himself over time - in the short run, yes, anyone fortified with their individual AI software can win. In the long run, as with this poker AI, it's virtually impossible without the advantage that unlimited resources give you.

https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/arc...oker-pros.html

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...h-destruction/

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Pass...ithms-and-bots
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Old 04-20-2018, 11:20 AM   #156
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As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here.
Another comedian.
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Old 04-20-2018, 11:30 AM   #157
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There isn's AN ALGORITHM that "does the work." There are multiple ones that do, and "the work" is data processing. Algorithms are better at it than you or I are. As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here. I'm surprised that some are still underestimating the impact of automation going on in all sectors of society, and in the financial sectors (including horse racing) most obviously. Automation is set to replace nearly half of all current jobs in the next couple of decades - its remaking whole areas of social life, not just pari-mutuel wagering.

I could point to a million example of how algorithms are being deployed, but the main point is that so long as there is an asymmetry of resources related to their use, there will be asymmetrical outcomes. Automatic decision-making structures REINFORCE INEQUALITY, and in horse racing, where there are whales and the rest of us, it is only more obviously the case. I cannot get ADWs to bend to my wishes; whales can. I cannot get the rebates they can. And I cannot invest in the proprietary, extremely fine-grained decisional softwares, and neither can most of you, but they can and do.

"Big data" surveillance of the kind whales can perform on horses across multiple tracks in real time gives an advantage that can never be matched without similar resources. It is all about processing power, the isolation of meaningful variables and the modeling that can be built from it. The bigger the data sets and the processing power, the more likely one is to find and be able to exploit a hidden pattern.

What PA doesn't realize is that he will never beat them by himself over time - in the short run, yes, anyone fortified with their individual AI software can win. In the long run, as with this poker AI, it's virtually impossible without the advantage that unlimited resources give you.

https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/arc...oker-pros.html

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...h-destruction/

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Pass...ithms-and-bots
this is not making me feel better.
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Old 04-20-2018, 11:46 AM   #158
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Another comedian.
Deal with the substance.
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Old 04-20-2018, 11:53 AM   #159
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Deal with the substance.
That's not easy for him...because he hasn't had much practice in this regard.
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:41 PM   #160
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Deal with the substance.
What's to deal with, you agree with me.

What I am dealing with is your snide little personal remark that could have easily been left unsaid.

I don't recall ever being unkind to you in the past, but I am getting older and the ol' memory ain't what it used to me.
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:42 PM   #161
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I deleted my prior comment, thask, before you replied.
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:45 PM   #162
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I deleted my prior comment, thask, before you replied.
No problem...
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:02 PM   #163
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I recall reading the Carnegie Mellon AI vs. Poker Pros article last year when it came out.
Quote:
McAulay, of Scotland, said Libratus was a tougher opponent than he expected, but it was exciting to play against it.

“Whenever you play a top player at poker, you learn from it,” McAulay said.

Les, of Costa Mesa, Calif., agreed that superior opponents help poker players improve.
Imo, McAulay and Les are right.

You can learn a lot from a superior opponent.


-jp

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Old 04-20-2018, 02:05 PM   #164
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Imo, McAulay and Les are right.

You can learn a lot from a superior opponent.


-jp

.
But at the poker table...the "superior opponent" usually charges plenty for the education that he dishes out.
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:10 PM   #165
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True.

But one thing about our game is you can paper trade while you learn.

Not that many do.


-jp

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