Pace Ratings

[cj]

More pics...I think the notes must have been mailed in and the letter is the reply he received.

[classhandicapper]

I’m interested in 3 things when I look at pace.

1. How fast is each horse when doing its best (mostly early for dirt and late for turf)?

2. Did the horse run too fast or slow in the early parts of a recent race to maximize his final time/finish within the race given the way the surface was playing on that day and his unique attributes?

3. What is the winning pace profile for today’s race?

Converting fractions into numbers so you can answer those questions is very difficult. You need multiple sets of numbers and some subjective analysis.

You have to consider run up differences, the impact of turns at different distances, changes in the surface from day or day, changes in how aggressive riders get given how the surface is playing, wind impacting fractions more than final time, changes in the average relationship between fractions and final time depending on how the surface is playing and differences between horses in how they react to different pace scenarios.

Most of the time you are going to be working with rough estimates. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that TimeformUS (CJ) does a lot of the work for you.

[classhandicapper]

When you see some of the information in those very old books, it makes you wonder how much better the very best handicappers of today are than they were many years ago.

When I worked at DRF I read through some charts from many decades ago and found comments like "dropped to the rail for the better footing inside", "stayed well out on the track to avoid the deeper footing inside" and things like that. So people were well aware of bias long before it became more popular in the books published in the 70s and 80s.

There was a subset of very informed players.

The difference is that the number of people that are very informed is much larger.

That's what I see in one of my other hobbies (shooting pool). I don't think the best players of today are much better than the players I saw in the 70s and even some of the players from the decades before that they were a bit past their prime, but there are way way more players at that very elite level.

[cj]

Pretty sure this is the person in the letter:

https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries...ry?id=26047792

https://www.ancestry.com/1940-census...monides_4h7d8r

[denniswilliams]

Amazon customer review for 'How to Select Winning Horses':

"
richard
5.0 out of 5 stars just the title explains
Reviewed in the United States on December 6, 2022
this book & the 1936 book are in my possession. these books are the basis for modern sheet figures made today that sell for 40 dollars or so..in one week i am getting another how to select winning horses book. .by creating charts from these books & a modern book i will have basic sheet style figures for myself saving myself a lot of money. my first book i bought on amazon-how to select winning horses. thanks amazon. merry christmas everyone."

Isn't there a forum member that sells a PDF copy of this book?

[hracingplyr]

That would be me. 29.99 contact me at robertj1949@gmail.com. And I will throw in the Cramer research Report on odds changes.

Bob

[acorn54]

rpm has some stuff written by donaldson, and the programmer for rpm has written a software program that is HIS. version of what donaldson was trying to communicate. i get no referral rewards of any kind i am just passing on what i know.