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10-11-2010, 06:45 PM
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#31
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andymays
So if we are handicapping for the Classic this year knowing that Zenyatta will be dramatically overbet what do you do? I'm thowing her out of everything except for fourth in the superfecta.
If she wins she deserves it. If she runs well and loses she will still get my respect. At least she will be taking on the best on dirt.
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I think that whether or not she will be overbet will not be evident until the race either falls apart late, or favors the forwardly placed runners.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-11-2010, 06:49 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 27
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Please do not discourage Zenyatta from coming to Churchill. I want all of the Califorina money I can get.
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10-11-2010, 07:18 PM
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#33
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 2,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andymays
Someone just PM'd me that they finished 6th and 9th. Is that possible given that one of them came close to beating Zenyatta and the other ran third to Zenyatta?
What are we to make of Zenyattas recent competition? I'm told that Switch is running in a 7 furlong sprint next but I could be wrong.
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All you have to do is make sense of it like the "great handicapper" does. As we all know, horse racing always makes complete sense, except for when it doesn't. At those times, the variant, bias, trip, form cycle, and cheating can pretty much make complete sense of any results.
By applying this wisdom, developed over many decades by "experts" who know exactly how it should have gone, and which was the "best" horse, all mysteries of the turf can be resolved.
Everyone knows that the artificial track is clearly preferred by Zenyatta, and she may be the only horse in the country that is clearly propelled by it. The failure of these other two this weekend is just more evidence that they, obviously can't run on the surface. They should put a little tomato can icon in the past performances for these kind of horses that the poly holds back, because it is now obvious that they are only suited for a dirt track. And since they are nothing but tomato cans, at least on poly, the horse that beat them should get no credit whatsoever, and get a little tomato can icon next to that PP line too.
jdl
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10-11-2010, 07:21 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
you have to remember that Rinterval needed a 1:15.11 pace and a lone speed trip and a distance of only 8.5F to stay anywhere near Zenyatta.
Clearly if she was a mare who belonged in the G1 Spinster, she would have beaten Zenyatta with those scales so dramatically in her favor. Even with "Z" on her PPs, she went off 9-1! No one was fooled.
Switch is a decent horse, who like Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret only had to run for part of the race. The pace was only 113 and the distance was only 8.5 and Switch had 2 or 3 lengths headstart when it came time to actually run, and she did a nice job of staying within a length. Better horse than Rinterval but she isn't some Grade I leader.
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Agree with you here!
Moreover, even if Rinterval fit in the Spinster better I would've still tossed her - fractious in the paddock the weekend before, tried to throw herself and got scratched, missed intended race and so shipped in at last minute for Spinster on quirky Keeneland surface - not much to like there even if you like the mare.
So quite aside from anyone's previously held or current opinions about Zenyatta, IMOR interval's performance in the Spinster isn't a particularly useful yardstick in assessing Zenyatta's current form.
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10-11-2010, 07:43 PM
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#35
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 2,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andymays
So if we are handicapping for the Classic this year knowing that Zenyatta will be dramatically overbet what do you do? I'm thowing her out of everything except for fourth in the superfecta.
If she wins she deserves it. If she runs well and loses she will still get my respect. At least she will be taking on the best on dirt.
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Why assume that Zenyatta will be overbet? Surely, there are enough players that believe Kentucky dirt will make a huge difference. At least that dirt will propel some other horse and not Zenyatta. Since Zenyatta will be running on dirt, she supposedly loses her only advantage. Which horse is seen as the "fastest"? That is your overbet candidate.
jdl
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10-11-2010, 07:46 PM
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#36
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jonnielu
Why assume that Zenyatta will be overbet? Surely, there are enough players that believe Kentucky dirt will make a huge difference. At least that dirt will propel some other horse and not Zenyatta. Since Zenyatta will be running on dirt, she supposedly loses her only advantage. Which horse is seen as the "fastest"? That is your overbet candidate.
jdl
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You can't be serious.
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10-11-2010, 08:04 PM
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#37
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andymays
You can't be serious.
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You might have spoke too soon. Jonnielu would make a fine moderator.
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10-11-2010, 08:08 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,445
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jonnielu
Why assume that Zenyatta will be overbet? Surely, there are enough players that believe Kentucky dirt will make a huge difference. At least that dirt will propel some other horse and not Zenyatta. Since Zenyatta will be running on dirt, she supposedly loses her only advantage. Which horse is seen as the "fastest"? That is your overbet candidate.
jdl
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i agree with your tongue in cheek post here. (at least thats how i see it). its absolutely hilarious how many handicappers on this board seem to process zenyatta's races in this fashion: every horse that races zenyatta and then runs admirably on the dirt is hampered by the poly track. although when it comes to analyzing zenyatta she puts on her magic horseshoes and it makes her incredibly fast on the poly track and slow on dirt... i don't think it has occurred to many handicappers that the surface might just slow zenyatta as much as many others
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10-11-2010, 08:10 PM
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#39
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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...and a new candidate emerges.
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10-11-2010, 08:20 PM
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#40
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Zenyatta will be overbet.
How can anyone disagree with this? Where am I?
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10-11-2010, 08:25 PM
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#41
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andymays
Zenyatta will be overbet.
How can anyone disagree with this? Where am I?
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In a thread that you started by asking a question I think you already knew the answer to.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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10-11-2010, 08:26 PM
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#42
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
In a thread that you started by asking a question I think you already knew the answer to.
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Yes, I was being a smart ass when I started it. I knew the results. Most people knew that I was trying to make a point in a sarcastic way.
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10-11-2010, 08:28 PM
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#43
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andymays
Yes, I was being a smart ass when I started it. I knew the results. Most people knew that I was trying to make a point in a sarcastic way.
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I can see the Rinterval angle but why Zardana? She beat Rachel and lost to Zenyatta.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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10-11-2010, 08:29 PM
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#44
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I can see the Rinterval angle but why Zardana? She beat Rachel and lost to Zenyatta.
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Rachel is irrelevant to the discussion. Zardana fished third to Zenyatta.
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10-11-2010, 08:49 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,761
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I can see the Rinterval angle but why Zardana? She beat Rachel and lost to Zenyatta.
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Rachel also beat her by 13 in the La Troienne, but let's forget about that. 
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