Closer should have won this Derby

[menifee]

Those early fractions were ridiculous. I am amazed that Calvin Borel doesn’t get more mounts in the Derby. His standard drop the horse far back and make one run doesn’t work on a normal day, but it does work in the Derby.

Race also illustrates why CJ’s numbers are better than Beyer. 103 doesn’t tell the story of the race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by menifee

Those early fractions were ridiculous. I am amazed that Calvin Borel doesn’t get more mounts in the Derby. His standard drop the horse far back and make one run doesn’t work on a normal day, but it does work in the Derby.

Race also illustrates why CJ’s numbers are better than Beyer. 103 doesn’t tell the story of the race.

I agree. Good observations.

jockeys- Borel had such a great run there over those several years. His rides on MTB (and more subtle his Super Sense ride) were SO GREAT that he made me re-evaluate the Street Sense derby.

I think Kent did a wonderful job on My Boy Jack to run 5th. He needed Justify and Good Magic to be part of a pace-collapse to have a winning bid. Closers were vying for 3rd-10th.

the oversimplification = "the track was playing fast early/slow late"

in reality = it was a fast track (big contrast to the Santa Anita Derby surface), they were going fast early (although he was more relaxed, fundamentally-sound - he did turn it up a little from the Santa Anita Derby)., It was sloppy (some of that pace stress is offset by lack of kickback and saving some ground)..

Most of these guys actually ran to expected form. It was extremely formful in terms of expected form.
You watch a race like this, and it makes you think the game is easy. But most races have more randomness salted in.


Bolt was the main difference, and he was a known risk to flatten-out, in the stretch but it was one of those things where the stresses accumulated 'exponentially'. Pace, ground-loss, distance-limitations,... and 'critical mass' was reached.

Justify ran his race.

Good Magic ran surprisingly well. Justify was supposed to crush this field if he ran his race. Maybe the track played a role to some degree, but Good Magic definitely ran huge.
BcJuv- It wasn't clear whether GM or Bolt was best, but both ran well. Fountain-of-Youth=Good Magic ran best while finishing 3rd. Bluegrass-Good Magic ran best, but contrary to the public I had him about the same as the Fountain of Youth. I thought the public misread the race because of the literal form results. But in this KY Derby Good Magic ran a GREAT race. Those were 2 really good horses there.

Audible ran exactly to form. He ran his good race. Prior to the race, I thought he may have had more traffic and loss-of-position than he actually had, but he was definitely a threat to run a belated 2nd/3rd/4th, while not being a win contender.

Instilled Regard, My Boy Jack ran exactly to form.

Bravazo ran much better than expected.

Everyone else was pretty much to form, except Vino Rosso being a disapointment. I have yet to re-watch for a trip, but he was with Good Magic as the 2 contenders you wanted to key underneath Justify along with long-shots like Enticed, Instilled Regard, Solomini, etc...

I suppose Enticed was a slight disappointment as well.

[GMB@BP]

I would like to see this race re run with normal 23 and change and 47 and change fractions on a dry track...wonder who would have won.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Everyone else was pretty much to form, except Vino Rosso being a disapointment. I have yet to re-watch for a trip, but he was with Good Magic as the 2 contenders you wanted to key underneath Justify along with long-shots like Enticed, Instilled Regard, Solomini, etc...

I suppose Enticed was a slight disappointment as well.

Todd Pletcher said this morning they were still trying to flush the mud out of his eyes. He didn't sound hyperbolic, just matter-of-fact normal Pletcher.

The blinkered horses finished very poorly for the most part. Most of the horses apparently came back pretty bloody, according to their trainers. Almost none have plans to return before the Haskell.

I think it was unfortunate to have such bad conditions. They certainly played a part, there is no way they couldn't have, esp given almost none will be back before July. Perhaps that the 1,2,3 horses came from 7,6,5 is a coincidence and that 1, 2, 3, 4 finished 11,16,15,13 and that 14, 16,19,20 finished 20,19,17,18 are also coincidences, but it does seem that being at the tip of the arrow was better than being on the sides.

However, I agree that the race was formful for some. I calculated that the 6f would be in 1:11 with Justify, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, and Flameaway on the lead and Audible and Good Magic just behind moving well, and with Promises Fullfilled and Magnum Moon already out of it. But it just seems unlikely that all three--Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, and Flameaway--all were true to form at 13, 17, and 20, respectfully. I was wrong about the 1:37...however, this is the 2nd time in a row Justify has run 1:37, if he runs 1:37 in the Preakness what then?

And of course, I can never be convinced 2:04 is anything but 2:04, but that's just going to be a point I will never agree on...

[MadVindication]

Next year there will be no closers in the Derby = My first 2019 Derby futures bet.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by papillon

Todd Pletcher said this morning they were still trying to flush the mud out of his eyes. He didn't sound hyperbolic, just matter-of-fact normal Pletcher.

The blinkered horses finished very poorly for the most part. Most of the horses apparently came back pretty bloody, according to their trainers. Almost none have plans to return before the Haskell.

I think it was unfortunate to have such bad conditions. They certainly played a part, there is no way they couldn't have, esp given almost none will be back before July. Perhaps that the 1,2,3 horses came from 7,6,5 is a coincidence and that 1, 2, 3, 4 finished 11,16,15,13 and that 14, 16,19,20 finished 20,19,17,18 are also coincidences, but it does seem that being at the tip of the arrow was better than being on the sides.

However, I agree that the race was formful for some. I calculated that the 6f would be in 1:11 with Justify, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, and Flameaway on the lead and Audible and Good Magic just behind moving well, and with Promises Fullfilled and Magnum Moon already out of it. But it just seems unlikely that all three--Mendelssohn, Noble Indy, and Flameaway--all were true to form at 13, 17, and 20, respectfully. I was wrong about the 1:37...however, this is the 2nd time in a row Justify has run 1:37, if he runs 1:37 in the Preakness what then?

And of course, I can never be convinced 2:04 is anything but 2:04, but that's just going to be a point I will never agree on...

Why dint the same wet muddy track not create a problem for Mine That Bird and Orb with similar, or even less advantageous setups than yesterday?

I would argue after the preps that have been run before the race there was a dearth of good closers, thats why My Boy Jack took so much money.

[Robert Fischer]

raw-times were disproved not long after the flat-earth hypothesis.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by menifee

Race also illustrates why CJ’s numbers are better than Beyer. 103 doesn’t tell the story of the race.

Sure it does, he just distills it to one number.

[boys at tosconova]

closers ran the way they were suppose to run, off the board.

that was a top shelf grouping of horses in the top 5/6. and if 1 or 2 ran bad the other 2/3 would likely pick up the slack.

let's get serious here. magnum was a lil iffy with the post and some would say poor speed numbers and bolt already was beaten soundly by justy in the SA.

that leaves mendy and the top 3 horses that ran 1/2/3. if audible was up closer and didn't have to check a little around the turn he's easily second. he was just a lil too far back.

[davew]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

closers ran the way they were suppose to run, off the board.

that was a top shelf grouping of horses in the top 5/6. and if 1 or 2 ran bad the other 2/3 would likely pick up the slack.

let's get serious here. magnum was a lil iffy with the post and some would say poor speed numbers and bolt already was beaten soundly by justy in the SA.

that leaves mendy and the top 3 horses that ran 1/2/3. if audible was up closer and didn't have to check a little around the turn he's easily second. he was just a lil too far back.

Was the track favoring speed? or did the closers also get fooled into running too fast too early?

[menifee]

The same pace scenario was in the Pat Day Mile and closers ran well. Look at the chart. Those horses were terrible and they finished in the top 3. The closers were just way too close to a hot pace. Bonehead ride of the year goes to Victor E.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by menifee

The same pace scenario was in the Pat Day Mile and closers ran well. Look at the chart. Those horses were terrible and they finished in the top 3. The closers were just way too close to a hot pace. Bonehead ride of the year goes to Victor E.

pace was much slower in the Pat Day.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I would like to see this race re run with normal 23 and change and 47 and change fractions on a dry track...wonder who would have won.

Promises Fulfilled?

[f2tornado]

The closing horses did close. Audible, Instilled Regard, and Hofburg picked up four lengths in the final quarter. Jack picked up close to six. I figured a horse would have to be within five lengths of the lead at the 3/4 pole given so many at or near the lead horses displayed solid final fractions in last prep. Audible was eight back and got to inside of three.

I really like this crop of three year old horses. We should have some exciting match-ups through the year.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The closing horses did close. Audible, Instilled Regard, and Hofburg picked up four lengths in the final quarter. Jack picked up close to six. I figured a horse would have to be within five lengths of the lead at the 3/4 pole given so many at or near the lead horses displayed solid final fractions in last prep. Audible was eight back and got to inside of three.

I really like this crop of three year old horses. We should have some exciting match-ups through the year.

Agreed, Audible ran a good race and could be added to the outperformed thread. He had some trouble and a ton of kickback. Muddy tracks can have different tendencies. Just because the fractions were fast doesn't mean it was easy for closers. Three or more inches of rain can favor the horses in front no matter what. Basically, they slip and slide around the track and its hard to gain ground. Of course, since he lost, Pletcher won't run in the Preakness. Audible was my top choice and he ran a credible race against tough conditions. If he remains healthy he could still have something to say this summer. The top 3, Justify, Good Magic and Audible ran good races......but I think Audible did the most dirty work.