What is the deal with the late bets?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Racing is still one of the rare beatable games out there.

I have a hard time believing there are substantially more winning poker or sports bettors as compared to horse bettors.

I know, I know. Conventional wisdom says there MUST BE.

But, I'm not so sure I believe it.

The whales and CRWs are into our game for a reason. And contrary to popular opinion, it's not because they are allowed to cheat. It's because the game is beatable.

I know, there are big sports betting outfits out there...the point remains, horse racing isn't as dead a game as some of you are making it out to be, even in the current environment.

I have been living in Las Vegas for about 10 months now...and I spend most of my time in the poker rooms and the sports books. I have already met 11 poker players who have proven conclusively to me that they are winning players. By contrast...the only horseplayer who has ever claimed to me to be a winning player disappeared altogether from the sportsbooks a few months ago...never to be seen again. At the Wynn, where I can be found most often...their luxurious sportsbook is almost empty in the afternoon...except when there is a World Cup soccer match going on. The horses on the screens are almost totally ignored...while the nearby poker room is buzzing with action throughout the day, and night.

[Dave Schwartz]

Racing could easily solve this late odds changes crisis:

How about we put the public ON the live horses from the very beginning?

AskinHaskin,

Could you elaborate on how this would be done?

I do not understand.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have been living in Las Vegas for about 10 months now...and I spend most of my time in the poker rooms and the sports books. I have already met 11 poker players who have proven conclusively to me that they are winning players. By contrast...the only horseplayer who has ever claimed to me to be a winning player disappeared altogether from the sportsbooks a few months ago...never to be seen again. At the Wynn, where I can be found most often...their luxurious sportsbook is almost empty in the afternoon...except when there is a World Cup soccer match going on. The horses on the screens are almost totally ignored...while the nearby poker room is buzzing with action throughout the day, and night.

I've been to Vegas a lot and this, too, has been my observation.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I've wracked my brain over the past months trying to figure out what racing could do to turn the tide but I just can't see a way out of this mess.

Can anyone else?

Sure, we know the two obvious things...

1. Substantial reduction in takeout.
2. Improve the tote system.

Unfortunately, these two items are both viewed as "cost-without-return" by the race tracks.

Does anyone have any ideas for how those two items could be turned into a positive for the tracks?

I have an idea:

A short while ago...I opened a modest account with HorseTourneys.com...a tournament site where handicappers are pitted against one-another for a predetermined prize pool. There are heads-up tournaments...as well as tournaments where any number of contestants can participate. I learned about that site from several posters here with whom I have developed a friendship of sorts, and they were encouraging me to try out the site for many months now...but, true to my nature, I procrastinated needlessly until recently.

And...you know what? I am having a freaking BALL! I am playing strictly heads-up...I am winning WAY more often than I thought I would...and I couldn't care less about the plunging odds, or any other disturbing part of this game...because my opponent is as clueless about these esoteric developments as I am. It's strictly a handicapping contest between him and me...and the other disturbing factors don't have a long-term effect on our betting results. And I ask:

Why are Horsetourneys and DerbyWars able to offer such a fascinating wagering alternative to their customers...and the other mighty AWDs can't? Why don't the racetracks take their heads out of their asses...and realize that widespread tournament-play might be exactly the shot-in-the-arm that this game so sorely needs? Haven't they seen what tournament-play has done for the popularity of POKER?

The Whales are taking the play away from the average horseplayer...and the average horseplayer is disenchanted to the point where he has one foot out of the racetrack's door. Why doesn't the track offer him an alternative wagering option like a widespread tournament format...so he could get excited about the game again...as I have been for the last few weeks?

PS...

I keep only a modest amount in my HorseTourneys account, because I don't know how trustworthy the site is...since it exists only on the internet. But if I knew that the site was supported by a racetrack, then my action there would multiply by a factor of 10...and I am willing to wager that the same could be said about all the other players who bet those tournaments. Give people a freaking CHOICE! Those who want to play the "cash game" can bet into the mutuel pools...and those who want tournament-play can focus their attention on the tournaments. And the players' interest in the game remains intact.

Is there something fundamentally WRONG with this way of thinking?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have an idea:
...
Is there something fundamentally WRONG with this way of thinking?

I like it.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I've wracked my brain over the past months trying to figure out what racing could do to turn the tide but I just can't see a way out of this mess.

Can anyone else?

Sure, we know the two obvious things...

1. Substantial reduction in takeout.
2. Improve the tote system.

Unfortunately, these two items are both viewed as "cost-without-return" by the race tracks.

Does anyone have any ideas for how those two items could be turned into a positive for the tracks?

Assuming there are decision-makers out there that can institute action (of which I have no idea who they are) here are a few ideas:

1. By invitation only: All trainers will be allowed to run races at a meet by invitation only. Allow for the banning of trainers who win frequently in miracle-working ways. Prairie Meadows, for example, may think letting Broberg and Villafranco improves their appeal by having more horses but they are wrong. What they do is make the Prairie Meadows product unplayable and comical. If enough tracks adopt this policy, there would be nowhere for these miracle workers to go. By the way, these outfits don't just take money from other trainers, they dip into the pool and literally steal money from the customers. I can't believe tracks really want their customers to be fleeced.

2. Stop betting 2 minutes to post to allow for all money to be in and counted before a race goes off. Enough of the idiocy of wondering about odds changing during and after a race. One thing is clear, horseplayers will adapt.

3. Audit, investigate and be transparent about significant betting anomalies especially on horses that win. The late money on the Servis winner today (Firenze Fire) should be investigated when combined with who the trainer was and how the horse won. How about those winners by that NY trainer (Persuad, I think). Do something and let the public know you are doing something. If no conclusion of wrong-doing can be found or proven, ok. But at least, as a starting point, the public will feel like someone is paying attention.

I would actually advocate for a slightly "higher" takeout if the additional money was used to fund programs or initiatives that protect the game. Right now it appears that track management has exactly one thing in their focus and that is handle (i.e. bottom line). While keeping this myopic focus on the financial aspect, their product is suffering a lethal blow in terms of quality. I understand the issue at hand with keeping the doors open but unless a serious approach is taken, those doors have no chance of staying open long-term. It makes me think that executives and shareholders aren't in this for the long-term.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Yes, but here's the rub. Sports bookies aren't pari-mutuel so they take risks too. But win too much and your acct will be closed. I've seen it happen more than once here in Vegas.

Let me understand you here:

You have seen a Vegas bettor walk into a sportsbook to place a sports-wager...and his bet was REFUSED?

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Betting handle is up over 5% comparing early 2018 vs early 2017. So somebody is liking the new world order with the late odds changes. Given these figures I cannot see any changes to the rules anytime soon

My guess is that the 5% lift in handle is due to gifting even bigger rebates to the big syndicates, which will just strengthen the trend with big late odds drops

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...purses-improve

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And where you lock in your odds when you place your wager.

Ah the beauty of fixed odds betting: puts the current pm game to shame.

Allan

[AltonKelsey]

Almost 1.5 billion a year is lost to takeout.



You fight over what's left with folks that have information you don't. And never will.



And you wonder why you can't win in the long run.



You'd best be in the top 1-2% of all players to have a shot.

[PaceAdvantage]

LULZ

You write as if it would be easy to win "if only."

There have been people with "information you don't. And never will." existing since the beginning of time. There has been high takeout forever.

And just like in decades gone by, the vast majority of people lose.

What has changed, really? Not much, especially when it comes to what might turn a loser into a winner.

[davew]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have been living in Las Vegas for about 10 months now...and I spend most of my time in the poker rooms and the sports books. I have already met 11 poker players who have proven conclusively to me that they are winning players. By contrast...the only horseplayer who has ever claimed to me to be a winning player disappeared altogether from the sportsbooks a few months ago...never to be seen again. At the Wynn, where I can be found most often...their luxurious sportsbook is almost empty in the afternoon...except when there is a World Cup soccer match going on. The horses on the screens are almost totally ignored...while the nearby poker room is buzzing with action throughout the day, and night.

I suspect number wise, that more winning horseplayers focus on single tracks/circuits and are onsite at their tracks than are in Vegas.

[AltonKelsey]

A lot has changed.



There used to be a much higher % of dumb money in the pool , before lotteries and such.



It was also harder to get a big bet in late before computerization.



So quite a bit has changed.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

LULZ

You write as if it would be easy to win "if only."

There have been people with "information you don't. And never will." existing since the beginning of time. There has been high takeout forever.

And just like in decades gone by, the vast majority of people lose.

What has changed, really? Not much, especially when it comes to what might turn a loser into a winner.

Here is what has changed...IMO:

In years past, the vast majority of us players lost...but there were only a few races a day available to us for wagering purposes...and we could manage our money in a way which kept our losses under control. But then, full-card simulcasting was sprung among us without any warning of its harmful side-effects...and we jumped at this new wagering formal as if we were kids in a candy store. We started making a week's worth of bets in a single day, and our losses quickly got out of control. And most of us have yet to recover...IMO.

In the old days, many of us deceived ourselves into actually believing that we would be able to make a lot of money in this game...if only we had enough wagering opportunities available to us to make the endeavor worthwhile, from a "time and effort" point of view. Well...it turned out that we were dead wrong. If you are a WINNING player, then more wagering opportunities are a blessing. But to the LOSING player...an increase in the number of wagering opportunities only means a quicker path to the poorhouse. As the old saying goes..."be careful what you wish for..."

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Good to see Eye Luv Lulu displaying multiple moves while stepping up. . At least he didn't drop to 9/5 midrace.

Eye Luv Lulu was my pick in a tournament. Got exciting there for a minute! Was hoping the inquiry would take Whitmore down and give me the place, but it was not to be. (ELL's final odds were 10.7/1.)