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Old 06-14-2018, 04:53 PM   #31
Spalding No!
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Ok, makes more sense...with a little filtering and common sense you can its not too hard to make money.

Still, I cannot recall Drysdale running a horse on dirt in forever.
3 or 4 of his dirt starts were Vexatious last year in the top 3yo filly races.
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Old 06-14-2018, 06:15 PM   #32
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3 or 4 of his dirt starts were Vexatious last year in the top 3yo filly races.
I had to look her up...

3rd in a grade 2
3rd in a grade 3
4th in a grade 1
5th in a grade 1
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Old 06-14-2018, 07:23 PM   #33
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Baffert trains his horse hard.
They run hard and they win.
And he is not the only one out there that does this.

The East Coast should be taking notes.
Whipping and driving beat grabbing and herding every day.
Maybe they train hard, run hard, and win because they've been pumped up with steroids ahead of time.

Maybe they get to the races late because of it. They probably get started while still at a farm like Winstar.

Then they get sent to Baffert.

When Baffert gets them they're already bulked up like Barry Bonds used to be. He just has to train them hard to prepare them for races.

He doesn't worry about long careers.

The steroids effects will wear off and the horse will return to normal.
See Arrogate.

6 months to a year is all the time they've got for competition.

Then it's retirement and the breeding royalties for Baffert to share in.
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Old 06-14-2018, 08:29 PM   #34
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It's happened before...this is nothing new.
Not really. This guy is about six feet from winning five Triple Crowns.
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Old 06-14-2018, 09:17 PM   #35
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And after half the work day is over, he could observe Baffer after he’s rolled into work. Yet Baffert is the trainer of record.
I've been on the backside of SA quite a few times and I've been there at 5 a.m. plenty of times as well. It's random, not scientific, but I've never failed to see Baffert there. It could all be coincidence, but nobody gets to the top without showing up.

I could make a lot of comments on the video, but at the end of the day I don't have a clue how he can get a 3YO to win all those races in a condensed time.
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Old 06-14-2018, 09:57 PM   #36
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I am confused as well, I am also trying to recall when Baltas has shipped anything of note, I cant think of it off the top of my head.

Drysdale has had a dirt horse the past decade in a stake race?

Keith D had a 14/1 shot win this year so I am confused.
The original post for the partial 2018 year was similarly botched and the ROI should be $1.80 (not $1.46). Those numbers include turf races (I did this painstakingly by hand and can't/won't go back and eliminate them).

The second post did not include the 2018 year, but I did filter out grass races.

The Keith Desormeaux horse you are referring to is probably Sonneteer in the Fifth Season at Oaklawn this year, but he was nearly 30-1 not 14-1.

Richard Baltas ran Forever Darling, Big Macher, Clearly Confused, Majestic City, Navy Hymn, Mokat, Imperative, Gato Del Oro, Ponder Lea, and Meanie Irenie.

This year he won with Gas Station Sushi at Keeneland, I think his other shippers have been on the grass.
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Old 06-16-2018, 09:55 PM   #37
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The original post for the partial 2018 year was similarly botched and the ROI should be $1.80 (not $1.46). Those numbers include turf races (I did this painstakingly by hand and can't/won't go back and eliminate them).

The second post did not include the 2018 year, but I did filter out grass races.

The Keith Desormeaux horse you are referring to is probably Sonneteer in the Fifth Season at Oaklawn this year, but he was nearly 30-1 not 14-1.

Richard Baltas ran Forever Darling, Big Macher, Clearly Confused, Majestic City, Navy Hymn, Mokat, Imperative, Gato Del Oro, Ponder Lea, and Meanie Irenie.

This year he won with Gas Station Sushi at Keeneland, I think his other shippers have been on the grass.

1/2 tonight, lost with Mopotism (questionable ride if you ask me) but Pavel saved the day.
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:15 PM   #38
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1/2 tonight, lost with Mopotism (questionable ride if you ask me) but Pavel saved the day.
1-for-3 with Ax Man's monumental failure.

How good must Pavel be to find winning form in the face of Reddam's management? Granted, this seemed like a weak field (was there even a grade 1 winner amongst them?), but just the sheer fact that Pavel could still finish first in a race of consequence says something about the horse.
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:35 PM   #39
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1-for-3 with Ax Man's monumental failure.

How good must Pavel be to find winning form in the face of Reddam's management? Granted, this seemed like a weak field (was there even a grade 1 winner amongst them?), but just the sheer fact that Pavel could still finish first in a race of consequence says something about the horse.
I dont bet 1/9 shots, sorry...lets use some common sense, >2/1 < 15/1

just keep betting them and make money!!!
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:37 PM   #40
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1-for-3 with Ax Man's monumental failure.

How good must Pavel be to find winning form in the face of Reddam's management? Granted, this seemed like a weak field (was there even a grade 1 winner amongst them?), but just the sheer fact that Pavel could still finish first in a race of consequence says something about the horse.
To me it was a monster drop in class, the field felt weak other then the overbet favorite (2/5?).

But yea, but I guess its hard to knock him, thats what 1 million in earning this year now.
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:38 PM   #41
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1-for-3 with Ax Man's monumental failure.

.
remember, Ax Man was the horse Baffert held back that according to some on this board was a serious challenger to Justify.

Which is a joke, this horse has serious distance and mental issues he will have to overcome. Its the reason Baffert ran him in back to back easy spots.
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:45 PM   #42
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To me it was a monster drop in class, the field felt weak other then the overbet favorite (2/5?).

But yea, but I guess its hard to knock him, thats what 1 million in earning this year now.
I agree on all points. Didn't get a look at the Churchill PPS, but it pretty much had to be a massive class drop for Pavel unless you still believed in Irish War Cry as a top class horse.

And how Backyard Heaven deserved to be odds-on for beating Always Dreaming is beyond me.

Still I gotta think that Pavel would have been racking up his 3rd or 4th grade 1 tonight with more careful management after his strong debut a year ago.
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:50 PM   #43
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remember, Ax Man was the horse Baffert held back that according to some on this board was a serious challenger to Justify.

Which is a joke, this horse has serious distance and mental issues he will have to overcome. Its the reason Baffert ran him in back to back easy spots.
Ax Man was hyped from day one when winning a fake maiden special weight (for homebreds or horses purchased for less than $100K). I thought he was exposed when failing to handle pace pressure in the San Vincente, but I guess winning a tailored allowance (similar to Justify's second start) and a track-aided romp in the Sir Barton had everyone fooled again. Isn't he supposed to be Baffert's Haskell horse?

What kind of number did There And Back get in his maiden win last week? He might have to be Justify-Lite or at least this year's version of Pavel...
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:55 PM   #44
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I dont bet 1/9 shots, sorry...lets use some common sense, >2/1 < 15/1

just keep betting them and make money!!!
I agree the odds-on types are pointless, but you should be willing to look beyond the 15/1 limit, you might have caught Sonneteer this year and the ill-fated Irap last year.
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Old 06-17-2018, 12:00 AM   #45
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Ax Man was hyped from day one when winning a fake maiden special weight (for homebreds or horses purchased for less than $100K). I thought he was exposed when failing to handle pace pressure in the San Vincente, but I guess winning a tailored allowance (similar to Justify's second start) and a track-aided romp in the Sir Barton had everyone fooled again. Isn't he supposed to be Baffert's Haskell horse?

What kind of number did There And Back get in his maiden win last week? He might have to be Justify-Lite or at least this year's version of Pavel...
I havent seen the number.

Baffert really has somewhat a weak bench other than the horses that ran on Belmont day.

He does not top class sprinters this year, and his other 3yo's are the same crew that were weak 2 year olds last season.
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