If Justify becomes the 2nd unbeaten Triple Crown winner...

[lured]

Am I the only one who believes that Real Quiet missed the TC by more than just a "dirty head bob"? If he had held on, he should've been taken down anyway due to going sideways and crashing into Victory Gallop as he was ready to get passed.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Do they retire him or let him go Haskell, Travers, BC Classic?

After Justify wins the Belmont, he'll be pointed for the Classic. They may publicly imply Haskel/Travers. A retirement deal will be readied, and he will be freshened. If the horse screams to them "Hey my hoof is capable of running in the Classic, and I am thriving!", they will go ahead and add the Classic win to his resume. If the horse doesn't scream that, they will eventually retire him officially and announce the deal publicly.

Ax Man will run Haskell/Travers

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

After Justify wins the Belmont, he'll be pointed for the Classic. They may publicly imply Haskel/Travers. A retirement deal will be readied, and he will be freshened. If the horse screams to them "Hey my hoof is capable of running in the Classic, and I am thriving!", they will go ahead and add the Classic win to his resume. If the horse doesn't scream that, they will eventually retire him officially and announce the deal publicly.

Ax Man will run Haskell/Travers

Yep.

Or they would just trump up the injury.

Winstar is a breeding operation.

[classhandicapper]

I would not be totally shocked if Ax Man and/or McKinzie wind up being Baffert's Haskell, Travers and BC Classic horses.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would not be totally shocked if Ax Man and/or McKinzie wind up being Baffert's Haskell, Travers and BC Classic horses.

McKinzie hasnt even had a workout in 2 months so I gotta think August is a bit iffy for that horse, but he is very good.

Ax Man is at best a mile type horse, perfect trips its stretchable.

I would like to see them run him in the Woody Stephens.

[Secondbest]

Whatever happened to Nero?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Whatever happened to Nero?

He and McKinzie both last breezed in March. I think I read that McKinzie is galloping now. I'm not sure about Nero.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He and McKinzie both last breezed in March. I think I read that McKinzie is galloping now. I'm not sure about Nero.

Thanks

[dasch]

Did Beyer incorporate the pace into the figure? They say they don't then they do, I really have no idea what they do race to race which is why I stopped looking at them 10 years ago. Timeform definitely includes pace so if Beyer did not these 2 numbers might not be all that far apart.

I personally do include pace and also ground loss and the race could not have matched any better than it did including the 2 pace setters and the horse who was last early. Everybody is talking about a speed bias but from what I see for the Preakness that track could not have been more fair.

Very simply, the best horse in the race and the 2nd best battled each other on the lead having little left for the stretch resulting in 2 inferior horses to close late and almost beat them both. This happens all the time when there is a perceived bias when actually there is not one.

IMO there won't be a Good Magic in the Belmont or any other capable of softening up Justify like that and he is 6 lengths better than Bravazo, Tenfold and others. The Belmont can definitely be an odd race some years but with 6 lengths to play with he can overcome a lot. The chance to beat him was the Preakness and he still was able to prevail.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He and McKinzie both last breezed in March. I think I read that McKinzie is galloping now. I'm not sure about Nero.

McKinzie is just tack walking now according to Baffert via Steve Byk show this am. Haven't heard about Nero. Also said that Ax Man is not being pointed to the Easy Goer on Belmont day. Be curious where and when he shows up.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

McKinzie is just tack walking now according to Baffert via Steve Byk show this am. Haven't heard about Nero. Also said that Ax Man is not being pointed to the Easy Goer on Belmont day. Be curious where and when he shows up.

The Affirmed and the Los Alamitos Derby are also coming up (and often come up light) and probably a better way to judge whether Ax Man has a future around two-turns or will ultimately cut back to one-turn like many of his half-siblings.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by pandy

But isn't a Timeform 108 similar to a Beyer 97? Tenfold and Diamond King had 108 Timeform figs coming into the Preakness. A 108 Timeform figure isn't that good. In the 14th race at Pimlico Saturday, a $35,000 starter allowance, three horses had Timeform figures of 108 or higher. The bottom line is, for whatever reason, using any speed figures, the Preakness was a slow race for a GR1, even for three year olds.

I meant a 108 Beyer. He had a 128 TF fig. I use 20 points with good results. Sorry that was not clear. A 97 Beyer would make him the slowest Preakness since Beyers were published.

2017 Cloud Computing - 102
2016 Exaggerator - 101
2015 American Pharoah - 102
2014 California Chrome - 105
2013 Oxbow - 106
2012 I’ll Have Another - 109
2011 Shackleford - 104
2010 Lookin At Lucky - 102
2009 Rachel Alexandra - 108
2008 Big Brown - 100
2007 Curlin - 111
2006 Bernardini - 113
2005 Afleet Alex - 112
2004 Smarty Jones - 118
2003 Funny Cide - 114
2002 War Emblem - 109
2001 Point Given - 111
2000 Red Bullet - 109
1999 Charismatic - 107
1998 Real Quiet - 111
1997 Silver Charm - 118
1996 Louis Quatorze - 112
1995 Timber Country - 106
1994 Tabasco Cat - 112
1993 Prairie Bayou - 98
1992 Pine Bluff - 104
1991 Hansel - 117

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Justify is owned by basically the absolute worst people if you want to see a TC winner run on.

The Sport of Kings is now the Sport of Syndicates.



They are businessmen, not race fans, looking for an investment. American Pharoah gets $200,000 per cover, can be done 4 times a day (and quickly, while the offspring are still unproven, and before the stud fees drop....this part is basically just a retail business. )

All I see are a bunch of very wealthy investors putting up at least $1mil each...... but how are they different than any of the real estate developers/hedge fund managers/luxury vacation and golf course owners/luxury merchandise marketers and Big Pharma execs types here in the U.S. ?

Businessmen trainers, businessmen owners. And yes, it is all about the breeding biz


"worst people" is subjective these days.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

After Justify wins the Belmont, he'll be pointed for the Classic. They may publicly imply Haskel/Travers. A retirement deal will be readied, and he will be freshened. If the horse screams to them "Hey my hoof is capable of running in the Classic, and I am thriving!", they will go ahead and add the Classic win to his resume. If the horse doesn't scream that, they will eventually retire him officially and announce the deal publicly.

The word "publically" is for sure here. The PR machine behind the ownership is massive.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by papillon

An unbeaten TC with a 97 Beyer.

Real Quiet is rolling in his grave...a dirty head bob vs a 97 Beyer...

As to the question, it will depend on how sound he truly is I suppose. The NY Times article on as the hoof turns was far more enlightening than the racing puff pieces.

He had to have sugery as a two year old to correct a problem with his conformation (this must have been what Coolmore was talking about when they said they passed on him because he failed their vet check). Then he was sidelined for 2 months with muscle injury. Then, according to Baffert, he always gets scratches which supposedly makes horses act lame (which may be BS). Then he gets a bruise.

He seems to have had a lot of issue related down time as a two year old that belies Baffert's assertion he was able to build up a solid foundation from works. This may be why he was on fumes yesterday.

I found an article on bruises, it is possible his bruise is a function of his weight and an imbalance in his stance. That was one type, and he has a lot of tonage and has some conformation issues. FWIW the bruise article also said visible bruises are weeks ol.

Real Quiet is also rolling in his grave because Baffert said he never had a horse run faster than Justify in the Preakness.

Justify 1:55.93
Real Quiet 1:54.60

Just for fun, Lookin at Lucky 1:55.47



Oh, before the raw times are garbage crowd chimes in, Baffert was using raw times, so apples to apples.

LoneF - Part Deux