Wrona wronga?

[FenceBored]

If technologically superior America can't catch up with a minnow-like Australia - which has had accurate closing-tote odds at the start of every race since I lived there in the 1980s - please bring back bookmakers. I guarantee they could not possibly be viewed with more skepticism than this archaic system.
-- http://www.drf.com/news/letters-editor-jan-29

[cj]

He is spot on. I also know from experience DRF verifies those letters are from the person listed.

[Cardus]

From the thread title, I thought this was going to be yet another dreary "announcer thread" that focuses on their shortcomings and inevitably leads to a comparison of the current crop.

Wrona authors an interesting letter. I do not know if I agree with him, but he raises an interesting point regarding closing odds.

[horses4courses]

He makes a valid point.
I'm not sure, however, if you can compare the Australian tote system to the US pari-mutuel network. Seems like apples to oranges.

I doubt, though, that there is a single regular horse player in the US who hasn't been adversely affected by tumbling odds on your selected horse, as it sprints to the lead early in the race.

Your 3-1 odds entering the gate suddenly become 5-2 after a quarter mile, and 2-1 (or less) as they turn for home.
We've all been there......and it's infuriating.

The remedy?
Closing wagering at zero minutes to post.
It will not completely fix the problem, as off-site wagering causes a time delay that is hard to reconcile instantly. There will, however, be enough of a delay between close of wagering, and the start of the race, as to minimize the effects of wagers made right before cut-off time.

Bettors will hate it to begin with, of course.
In time, though, the sport would benefit from such a policy.

[RXB]

Closing the betting before post time might mean that you'll know the final odds prior to the start of the race; but you still won't know the final odds when you make your bet, which is the real issue. The money is going to pour in late regardless.

[jerry-g]

This reminds me of "The Sting". How does the track know the money flowing in has been wagered prior to the start? The flow of money is what should be stopped and returned to credit. It also reminds me of "the check is in the mail."

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by RXB

Closing the betting before post time might mean that you'll know the final odds prior to the start of the race; but you still won't know the final odds when you make your bet, which is the real issue. The money is going to pour in late regardless.

Excellent point.

[NJ Stinks]

Imagine going to a racetrack where you not only have the tote odds to bet into but also fixed odds that you can lock onto when the bet is placed with one of multitude of individually-owned on-track bookmakers. Even better - imagine a group of individually-owned on-track bookmakers who offer odds that will be adjusted according to their exposure as it develops before the off.

Do you think a half-hour is enough time to put together a betting strategy and shop for the best bang for your buck?

You can do the above in the UK and horseracing has more than a pulse there.

Meanwhile, we fidget about when our one window closes or how long there is between races.

Horseracing must be a tremendous game because it somehow survives here.

[thaskalos]

The drastically declining odds during the running of the race seems to be a rather recent phenomenon...and I can't understand why.

ADWs have been around for years now...but I don't remember seeing this problem for that long.

[v j stauffer]

Here's the way it was explained to me. Sounds plausible and non corrupt. However it doesn't change the fact that it's very annoying.

There are HUGE I mean REALLY HUGE players out there. They have software that is designed to analyize pools. Very little handicapping involved. The object is to bet massive amounts of money and break even. Then collect the rebates. These bets, because they are searching up until seconds to post, can be taken literally as the last horse is entering the gate. Still here in 2012 most tote systems are not equipped with state of the art fiber optics which makes the transition and posting of those bets slow. Sometimes as long a 30 seconds. Which as we've seen is pretty much as the field is going into the far turn.

I'm supremely confident that no one is cheating. If the racing associations thought that I'm quite sure after all this time they would have been able to catch the bad guys. Not to would destroy trust and quickly their fan base.

Obviously the question should be asked why not update to these high speed fiber optic systems?

That I can't speak to since I'm just a working stiff. I would speculate though that in these trying economic times, with racetracks desperately trying to stay afloat and eek out some profits, is doesn't at this time business sense.

VJS

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Here's the way it was explained to me. Sounds plausible and non corrupt. However it doesn't change the fact that it's very annoying.

There are HUGE I mean REALLY HUGE players out there. They have software that is designed to analyize pools. Very little handicapping involved. The object is to bet massive amounts of money and break even. Then collect the rebates. These bets, because they are searching up until seconds to post, can be taken literally as the last horse is entering the gate. Still here in 2012 most tote systems are not equipped with state of the art fiber optics which makes the transition and posting of those bets slow. Sometimes as long a 30 seconds. Which as we've seen is pretty much as the field is going into the far turn.

I'm supremely confident that no one is cheating. If the racing associations thought that I'm quite sure after all this time they would have been able to catch the bad guys. Not to would destroy trust and quickly their fan base.

Obviously the question should be asked why not update to these high speed fiber optic systems?

That I can't speak to since I'm just a working stiff. I would speculate though that in these trying economic times, with racetracks desperately trying to stay afloat and eek out some profits, is doesn't at this time business sense.

VJS

I understand what you say...but these suspicious-looking odds changes seem to occur most often at the minor tracks, with the small pools...and I have a hard time believing that these types of tracks would even appeal to the REALLY HUGE players you speak of.

Are we to believe that the game's biggest bettors have their sophisticated software pointed at the pools of Finger Lakes and Indiana Downs?

We could make the argument that these pools are so small, that even the small late-bettors could affect the odds during the race...but I seriously doubt that the smaller-sized bettors would be as obsessed with placing their wagers at the last possible second. ADWs has been around for years...and this problem has surfaced in more recent times.

And also...I thought that these "whales" were concentrating more on the exotics...where the pools (and the rebates) were much bigger.

[Robert Goren]

When you see a big odds drop at a small track, one of two things have happened. Somebody has decided on his own that the horse can't lose and dropped a bunch of money on it (this happens a lot more often than it should) or somebody associated with horse thinks he knows something. Most of the time it is the first case rather the second. They both can be right or they both can be wrong. Generally when you see a really big priced winner at a small track, it is a case of somebody associated with a horse or a couple of horses other than the winner thinking they know something and they were wrong.

[levinmpa]

My pet peeve with the American tote system is the way odds are displayed. Even before I was able to watch Australian racing on TV, I hated seeing odds displayed in fractions. If you are going to limit the tote board to 2 digits, please use a decimal instead of a slash, at least up to 10. 7/2 can mean 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8 or 3.9. Why not show the more accurate decimal than the archaic 7/2? Don't tell me it's because that's the way it's always been done. That answer is why this game is in the poor shape it is now. It's 2012. Please lets get these systems updated. I want to know if the 6/1 on the tote board is paying $14.00 or $15.80. It's not rocket science. They seem to be able to do this in other parts of the world.

[lamboguy]

its not to hard to handicap which horses are going to get bet after the bell. problem is how to make money with that proposition. if a horse leaves the gate @2-1 and hits the turn @6/5, that proposition might actually be 3/5 with that lead. it really doesn't matter what odds those horses have way back in the pack, they don't have a snowballs chance in hell to win. the important thing to note is the after the bell activity does not take place in every single race. that is also the reason why you know its not the tote board analyzer's that are making the odds change. if it really was them it would happen every single race every single day.

[igiveupregistering]

Originally Posted by RXB

Closing the betting before post time might mean that you'll know the final odds prior to the start of the race; but you still won't know the final odds when you make your bet, which is the real issue. The money is going to pour in late regardless.

The problem is, as you stated the pari-mutual bettting set-up.

For example, take an OTB like the Catskill NY OTB. This "gov't controlled"
entity is the management/communications hub for about 6-8 OTB locations in the lower Hudson Valley, NY.

Betting data from the Fishkill OTB is uploaded to the central Catskill OTB hub in Podunk NY where data (BETS) are stored until all the data (BETS) from all the other 6 Catskill OTB's are consolidated then UPLOADED AND SENT TO THE HOST TRACK FOR Race 3.

The bets are in. The wagering is CLOSED. BUT THE CATSKILL OTB HUB IS SLOW in sending the collected data to the NYRA computers for number-crunching. This is why the odds change during the race. The betting is closed but the computers are still crunching the data they are getting "vis a vis these podunk places with dial-up data lines".

Think as the Catskill OTB as a wheel with 8 OTB spokes. Each spoke has a one lane highway to send data (bets) to the Catskill Hub which has universal cloud transport system or a high speed data line or 20 lane highway directly into the NYRA computer.

The delay is these small OTB's and tracks in every hill and dale that send data (BETS) "via a one lane country road" to a hub that collects all the members data in a "buffer" and then uplaods ALL the data to the host track's computer via a high speed supersonic highway.

The ONLY way to eliminate delay in crunching numbers is to require EVERY pari-mutual location to have direct, point-to-point data transmission method directly to the host track's computers.

The host track cannot calculate the odds until ALL the data (bets) from all the hundreds of parimutual locations have been received (by the host tracks computers).

There will always be a delay in calculating race odds unless ALL parimutual locations invest in high-speed/packet nets that communicate directly with a
host tracks computers and ELIMINATE THE DELAY IN SENDING DATA TO THE HOST TRACK. The betting is closed, BUT the computers are still crunching data that is being sent from the hinterlands and thst is why the odds change during a race.