NYRA Jackpot P6

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

You dodged my question. How often do you/did you play the $2 Pick 6?

It's not my thing. Understanding the math actually keeps me away from betting it (as it does with a number of propositions), because I' m not a good enough handicapper to beat it long term.

But I do understand the math.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's not my thing. Understanding the math actually keeps me away from betting it (as it does with a number of propositions), because I' m not a good enough handicapper to beat it long term.

But I do understand the math.

Understanding the math and applying the math in real time with real money are 2 different things.

Let's say you have 75% coverage in all races on your ticket giving you a probability of hitting of about 18%. Would you add a 30-1 horse that you believe should be a 15-1 horse if the extra money required would be $5,000? Pool size is large with the carryover amount covering the takeout on the new money making it a net 0% takeout.

[Zman179]

Pick 6 and Late Pick 5 pools since July 31:

7/31 P6: 272,869(C/O) P5: 363,716
8/1 P6: 81,889 P5: 464,782
8/2 P6: 397,073(C/O) P5: 640,396
8/3 P6: 296,597 P5: 1,129,545
8/4 P6: 396,545 P5: 915,837
Changeover to Jackpot Pick 6:
8/7 JP6: 129,552 P5: 323,684
8/8 JP6: 129,599 P5: 393,797
8/9 JP6: 207,330 P5: 519,723
8/10 JP6: 351,268 P5: 781,866
8/11 JP6: 244,843 P5: 586,746
8/14 JP6: 209,584 P5: 337,641
8/15 JP6: 196,385 P5: 308,697
Current JP6 C/O: 293,678.

[Vinman]

The PP's are out for Sunday's first of two mandatory payouts of the new Empire 6.

The first TWO races in the sequence are 2 year old maiden filly dirt sprints....one MSW, one MCL. BOTH of these races contain FIVE first time starters.

Are they kidding? Is anyone else besides me gonna stay out and hope they do a better job on race selection for the Labor Day mandatory payout? Or is everyone gonna just dive right in?

Let's have a show of hands here either way.


Vinman

Playing the late Pick 4 Sunday

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The problem is a bettor really has no idea if any particular combination is EV+. Including or excluding horses based on their "value" is a fool's game with the $2 P-6.

I agree. It's an added complexity playing all exotic bets other than the exacta and double. You can theoretically make an odds line, but if you don't know the payoffs what good is it?

However, there's a soft relationship between the win odds and how horses are used in other pools. So in some cases you can be reasonably sure there will be good value with certain combinations and bad value with others based on your knowledge and reasonably competent odds projections.

There are also patterns in the betting in the exotics that can be exploited.

Here's what I am saying.

If some horse should be 15-1 in the win pool and he's 30-1 now, he's almost always going to take a ton of money from all kinds of bettors to correct that. Even smart $2 bettors will take a shot and help knock him down to 15-1.

In some other pools though, the small bettors are not going to cover some combinations that have a reasonable chance of winning and that contain a couple of live longshots because they can't afford to go that deep.

The guy that puts 1K in can cover those too.

That's kind of like my win example above but suppose you had to bet 1K to win in order to make the bet. Only the big guys could take advantage. So instead of it being knocked down to 15-1, he might go off at 20-1 and they'd have an edge.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Understanding the math and applying the math in real time with real money are 2 different things.

Let's say you have 75% coverage in all races on your ticket giving you a probability of hitting of about 18%. Would you add a 30-1 horse that you believe should be a 15-1 horse if the extra money required would be $5,000? Pool size is large with the carryover amount covering the takeout on the new money making it a net 0% takeout.

To be honest, if you find a horse like that he should probably be an "A".

However, in your example, the practicalities of bankroll and money management come into play.

That's what I keep saying in all these discussions. If you can't play it correctly from a mathematical perspective and start playing "defensive" tickets or leaving out horses because you can't afford to cover your opinion, you should probably not be in that pool. That's why I avoid many of these bets.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Understanding the math and applying the math in real time with real money are 2 different things.

Let's say you have 75% coverage in all races on your ticket giving you a probability of hitting of about 18%. Would you add a 30-1 horse that you believe should be a 15-1 horse if the extra money required would be $5,000? Pool size is large with the carryover amount covering the takeout on the new money making it a net 0% takeout.

Wouldn't I need the total amount of the ticket without the 30 to 1 shot, so I have a denominator on my fraction?

(Having said that, obviously we don't know ex ante if particular combinations are +EV. But this is where your experience with the bet comes in!)

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Wouldn't I need the total amount of the ticket without the 30 to 1 shot, so I have a denominator on my fraction?

(Having said that, obviously we don't know ex ante if particular combinations are +EV. But this is where your experience with the bet comes in!)

Make the total anything you want. Obviously the total before adding another horse would have to be a minimum of $5,000 meaning you're adding the horse to a race that has only 1 selection. The ticket would be $10,000 if adding to a race with 2 selections.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

To be honest, if you find a horse like that he should probably be an "A".

However, in your example, the practicalities of bankroll and money management come into play.

That's what I keep saying in all these discussions. If you can't play it correctly from a mathematical perspective and start playing "defensive" tickets or leaving out horses because you can't afford to cover your opinion, you should probably not be in that pool. That's why I avoid many of these bets.

Opinions aren't a dichotomous variable. They can be all over the map. The question becomes do you want to cover a horse that is a fringe contender. The answer there is based on bankroll, pool size, etc.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Make the total anything you want. Obviously the total before adding another horse would have to be a minimum of $5,000 meaning you're adding the horse to a race that has only 1 selection. The ticket would be $10,000 if adding to a race with 2 selections.

If the horse should be 15 to 1, he has a 1 in 16 chance of winning. So including him increases the chance of the ticket winning by 6.25 percent.

Whether that is +EV depends on whether the weighted mean total payoff of all the combinations that use him (weighted because combinations involving favorites will come in more often than combinations involving longshots) exceeds $80,000.

And of course, since you don't have pick 6 probables, this is where your experience comes in with respect to whether including him is a good proposition.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

If the horse should be 15 to 1, he has a 1 in 16 chance of winning. So including him increases the chance of the ticket winning by 6.25 percent.

Whether that is +EV depends on whether the weighted mean total payoff of all the combinations that use him (weighted because combinations involving favorites will come in more often than combinations involving longshots) exceeds $80,000.

And of course, since you don't have pick 6 probables, this is where your experience comes in with respect to whether including him is a good proposition.

I thought you knew the math? The 6.25% is only the probability of that 1 horse winning. To determine how it affects the entire ticket you would need to multiply the 6.25% times the probability of winning the other 5 races.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Opinions aren't a dichotomous variable. They can be all over the map. The question becomes do you want to cover a horse that is a fringe contender. The answer there is based on bankroll, pool size, etc.

I thought I already answered that.

If my opinion was that the fair price on horse X was 15-1 and he was going off at that 30-1 he would be an "A" on my ticket. If adding him blew up the ticket too large given my other opinions and bankroll I wouldn't get involved in that pool. I'd bet him another way. If I was afraid long losing streaks would break me financially or emotionally playing the right way, I would rarely be involved in that pool.

This stuff only gets complex because people love to make huge scores, feel compelled to play in certain pools, and won't accept that they may not have the bankroll or emotional makeup to play certain pools correctly. So they do foolish things and try to rationalize it instead of doing what suits their bankroll and personality.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I thought I already answered that.

If my opinion was that the fair price on horse X was 15-1 and he was going off at that 30-1 he would be an "A" on my ticket. If adding him blew up the ticket too large given my other opinions and bankroll I wouldn't get involved in that pool. I'd bet him another way. If I was afraid long losing streaks would break me playing the right way, I would rarely be involved in that pool.

This stuff only get complex because people love to make huge scores, feel compelled to play in certain pools, and won't accept that they may not have the bankroll or emotional makeup to play certain pools correctly. So they do foolish things and try to rationalize it instead of doing what suits their bankroll and personality.

A topic for another thread would be what constitutes an "A" horse when betting horizontals?

For me a horse with a a 6.25% chance of winning would never be an "A" horse in a Pick 6. In a P-3, yes and a P-4, maybe.

[classhandicapper]

To me, betting is very easy. The tough part is assessing each horses chances properly so you either know or can make an informed decision on which combinations to actually play. You find me a 30-1 that legitimately deserves to be 15-1, the rest is a piece of cake.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

A topic for another thread would be what constitutes an "A" horse when betting horizontals?

For me a horse with a a 6.25% chance of winning would never be an "A" horse in a Pick 6. In a P-3, yes and a P-4, maybe.

I understand you 100%. You are trying to control the cost of the Pick 6 ticket.

I'm never trying to control the cost of the ticket. I'm just switching pools to where I can make him an "A" and bet correctly in "value" terms because horses like that are tough to come by.

To me, this game is so hard to beat because it's so hard to assess the chances of each horse correctly. It's about getting the values right and not about trying to make a score. I don't start out saying I want to play a Pick 3 or Pick 5 or Super etc... I start out saying I'm looking for overlays and then figure out which pool offers the best value given my opinions. The problem is often my opinions, not my strategies. :-)