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07-20-2018, 02:56 PM
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#16
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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I find a lot of horses with big advantages in E2 that are not early types often have most of that advantage left over on the walk back to the barns.
I love those races where a P horse will show he run about a 92-93-94 E2 most of the time, then in the last race he will show a 115 E2 will 6 lengths back.
BRIS is a lot like peanuts - you have to take them out of the shells to get the best flavor.
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07-20-2018, 03:31 PM
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#17
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I find a lot of horses with big advantages in E2 that are not early types often have most of that advantage left over on the walk back to the barns.
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Great quote.
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07-20-2018, 04:39 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Yup, slow FR1 really does little for FR2.
FR2 is tricky. Top ranked FR1 and FR2 are usually strong favs so there is little value there.
What I do like is a P horse with strong FR2 when the pace comes up slow, they tend to be a little closer than normal to the lead and can use that FR2 to get a lead into the stretch, usually a winning move on dirt.
I think I used that angle to hit the first race at Sar today.
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07-20-2018, 05:08 PM
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#19
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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That is where I like a P horse - with a top Presser rating - F2 + E2.
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07-20-2018, 09:48 PM
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#20
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Light
Good point. And many times the horse with a great LP is not really a closer at all nor does he/she have the ability to close.
For "quick handicapping" I frequently look at the "Late Pace Last Race" category in the Ultimate PP's which I get for free on TS. I look for a strong closer for either exacta key horse betting or show betting at a price. I especially look to see if the Top LP horse has a significant point separation from the rest of the pack.
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What's winning at Del Mar?
I have 16 races - the first two days so far.
LP Last Race -
10 of 16 were ranked 1-2-3
Ever look at Rcg Spd Avg?
#1 won 8 of 16!
1-2 won 11 of 16
1-2-3 won 12 of 16
1-2-3-4 won 13 of 16
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07-20-2018, 09:52 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Del Mar so far is F, E, P and wide moves. Inside is not the place to be. Turf is the one that seems very biased against closers to me.
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07-21-2018, 06:17 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
What's winning at Del Mar?
I have 16 races - the first two days so far.
LP Last Race -
10 of 16 were ranked 1-2-3
Ever look at Rcg Spd Avg?
#1 won 8 of 16!
1-2 won 11 of 16
1-2-3 won 12 of 16
1-2-3-4 won 13 of 16
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Good data Tom. How does that LP ranking breakdown on Turf sprints vs. Tf routes? If you have it. I've used ol' Wm Scott's gain of five as an angle to consider in Turf routes.
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07-21-2018, 07:33 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: East Texas
Posts: 1,338
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
What's winning at Del Mar?
I have 16 races - the first two days so far.
LP Last Race -
10 of 16 were ranked 1-2-3
Ever look at Rcg Spd Avg?
#1 won 8 of 16!
1-2 won 11 of 16
1-2-3 won 12 of 16
1-2-3-4 won 13 of 16
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Not only do I look at Rcg Spd Avg, but I recalculate (mutilate?) it as necessary. It averages the last 3 races, but sometimes there's a race in that 3 that needs to have a line drawn through it for whatever reason. So I recalculate using the next available clean race.
I look at the LP Last Race as well, but the LP figure that I actually use (especially for turf) comes from the Avg Dist/Surf PACE-SPEED column in the Race Summary section.
Last edited by Mulerider; 07-21-2018 at 07:35 AM.
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07-21-2018, 09:26 AM
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#24
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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I will be doing Toga, too.
Updating this afternoon.
This going to turn into a Dave Schwartz work in progress.
Here is what I have so far.
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Last edited by Tom; 07-21-2018 at 09:28 AM.
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07-21-2018, 03:06 PM
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#25
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Question - I think the Pace Pressure numbers are wrong. I used QSP of 6 for E or EP horses, should have been 5. Anyone remember what the other number was? Like, 21/3 is that 3 E horse with 5 points, or 3 E or EP horse with 5 points?
The QP6 column is the number of horses in the rce who have 6 or more speed points.
Thanks
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07-21-2018, 03:41 PM
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#26
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,920
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If you're talking about Giles' PP gauge then it's the number of one-dimensional early pace runners. In your example, 3 E horses.
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07-21-2018, 03:53 PM
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#27
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Thanks - I thought is was just the Es.
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07-21-2018, 03:53 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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The first # is the total speed points for E, E/P, and P horses with 5 or more speed points. The second is the # of E horses with 5 or more speed points.
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07-25-2018, 09:37 AM
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#29
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I will be doing Toga, too.
Updating this afternoon.
This going to turn into a Dave Schwartz work in progress.
Here is what I have so far.
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Updated 7/25 - first full week at Dmr.
I corrected the pace pressure column.
Be aware. lots of ties, so a 3 ranking might include 5 horses.
But still, some definite key factors in there.
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