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Old 10-16-2018, 08:05 PM   #31
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by coachv30 View Post
I went back and handicapped the race using figures as well as Early and Late fractions. From my chart below, you will see that I also came up with as the early speed in the race (hence the GREEN bold)

If I had to narrow this race down to three horses, my order of preference would be . If I were making an odds line for WIN bet purposes, I would probably go no lower than 3 or 4-1 on the .

The only reason I could see the public making this horse that much of a favorite is his OFF track figure of a 104 (using Brisnet figures) as well as the 3 for 3 in the money on the off track.
IMO...it wasn't the "public", per say, who made this horse the 3-2 choice in this race. Horses with mediocre speed figures and nondescript running lines don't get the overwhelming betting support of the "public"...especially when these horses figure to be in last running position during the early part of a sprint race. I doubt that a high lifetime-best off-track speed figure could account for such betting action...especially when it was pretty obvious that this horse was no longer the horse that it once was.

If this horse had won at odds of 3-1...then I wouldn't have bothered to start this thread. But the horse was the overwhelming favorite in a competitive race...and I thought this oddity was worth mentioning on this board, if only as an indication that the "smart money" don't just rely on the figures and the replays in order to make their selections.
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Old 10-16-2018, 08:13 PM   #32
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One good thing that can come out of this thread is the fact that there is a difference between pace pars and efficient pace strategy. At major tracks, the 2 are closely related, but at minor tracks these pace pars are more likely an effect of jockey stupidity.
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Old 10-16-2018, 08:26 PM   #33
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[QUOTE=bobphilo;2384066]One good thing that can come out of this thread is the fact that there is a difference between pace pars and efficient pace strategy. At major tracks, the 2 are closely related, but at minor tracks these pace pars are more likely an effect of jockey stupidity.

What can we do move on come on Move on you had the right one.
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Old 10-16-2018, 08:44 PM   #34
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I barely took notice of pace or speed in this race. At this low level, other things are more important to be looking at. This was a class play for me. I did not care what the recent figs were because the recent races were not that important. The was a strong class play for me and the was a strong play because it finished 2nd at this lever last time and was not a proven loser. Tough call to seperate. Wife and lover show up together.
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Old 10-16-2018, 08:51 PM   #35
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I barely took notice of pace or speed in this race. At this low level, other things are more important to be looking at. This was a class play for me. I did not care what the recent figs were because the recent races were not that important. The was a strong class play for me and the was a strong play because it finished 2nd at this lever last time and was not a proven loser. Tough call to seperate. Wife and lover show up together.
Which was which?
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:07 PM   #36
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Bottom-line, quit with your over the top nonsense with me, GOT IT? I could have shown everyone what a fool you're making of yourself in various threads, one mistake after another, but I chose to hold back until NOW...

BTW, Thaskalos and I are good friends, and for a FACT he has shown great restraint with your antics, maybe because he's a Mod here at pace, or he's just showing you mercy. Whatever the case, watch what you say from now on. I've proven myself countless times on this board, and there is no point in any further conversation with you....You're now on ignore, deservedly so.

Go ahead, have the last word....again.
Oh gee, I'm shaking in my boots, tough guy. You accuse me of making "one mistake after another" when in reality I have made only a couple of typographical errors (I'm human) and had the decency to admit it on each occasion, unlike a narcissist like you.
So you call me a fool and begin a flaming war over something like a difference of opinion on handicapping. Like they say, you can always tell who's losing an argument by who's the one who first resorts to insults.
Kindly show some class and try to not expand this by involving a 3rd party like Thaskalos with whom I am not arguing in this discussion.
You insult me by comparing me with Cratos, as someone you consider a fool. Get a clue - I disagree with him over 90% of the time.
I won't match wits with you as you are only half prepared. Good bye and good riddance.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:19 PM   #37
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Which was which?
was wife, was lover.
Kinky Handicapping.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:37 PM   #38
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Oh gee, I'm shaking in my boots, tough guy. You accuse me of making "one mistake after another" when in reality I have made only a couple of typographical errors (I'm human) and had the decency to admit it on each occasion, unlike a narcissist like you.
So you call me a fool and begin a flaming war over something like a difference of opinion on handicapping. Like they say, you can always tell who's losing an argument by who's the one who first resorts to insults.
Kindly show some class and try to not expand this by involving a 3rd party like Thaskalos with whom I am not arguing in this discussion.
You insult me by comparing me with Cratos, as someone you consider a fool. Get a clue - I disagree with him over 90% of the time.
I won't match wits with you as you are only half prepared. Good bye and good riddance.

Crushing, fumbling, bumbling, stumbling reply as usual....I break wanna-bees like you over my knee on a daily basis in the betting pools, that's if you're not busted already.....My back hurts from having to stoop down to your level. You prove that's there's no age limit to being a PUNK.


Now we're done.....
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:44 PM   #39
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[quote=dlivery;2384070]
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
One good thing that can come out of this thread is the fact that there is a difference between pace pars and efficient pace strategy. At major tracks, the 2 are closely related, but at minor tracks these pace pars are more likely an effect of jockey stupidity.

What can we do move on come on Move on you had the right one.
I wish for nothing more than to move on. I was attacked personally and defended myself and now that awful business is over. I would like nothing better than a polite discussion of pace handicapping to continue.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:54 PM   #40
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Crushing, fumbling, bumbling, stumbling reply as usual....I break wanna-bees like you over my knee on a daily basis in the betting pools, that's if you're not busted already.....My back hurts from having to stoop down to your level. You prove that's there's no age limit to being a PUNK.


Now we're done.....
Come on RR, you're way out of line here.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:56 PM   #41
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Come on RR, you're way out of line here.
With all due respect CJ, you're wrong.....I took it easy on him.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:20 PM   #42
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With all due respect CJ, you're wrong.....I took it easy on him.
Cj, Thank you for being the voice of reason. Kindly block any of these further vicious attacks, including removing this last one where he falsely claims he was "being easy on me". I was tempted to reply in kind but would rather show some class and leave it alone.
I don't even mind you leaving up all his previous rants as they show what a vicious punk he really is. Your last post should then be the last word.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-16-2018 at 10:22 PM.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:24 PM   #43
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Cj, kindly block any of these further vicious attacks, including removing this last one where he falsely claims he was "being easy on me". I was tempted to reply in kind but would rather show some class and leave it alone.
I don't even mind you leaving up all his previous rants as they show what a vicious punk he really is. Your last post should then be the last word.
Damn dude, you need to shut the hell up....I've got a fist full of red-cards, doesn't change anything. What happened to being polite and moving on?...You're full of shit and a phony lying ass, that's what happened.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:41 PM   #44
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I barely took notice of pace or speed in this race. At this low level, other things are more important to be looking at. This was a class play for me. I did not care what the recent figs were because the recent races were not that important. The was a strong class play for me and the was a strong play because it finished 2nd at this lever last time and was not a proven loser. Tough call to seperate. Wife and lover show up together.
Interesting, in this type of race I find pace important since the ability to maintain is the sign of a fit and healthy horse as few are able to do this and when they do come along they are gold. One must be careful in that these speed form patterns are briefer in cheaper horses and one must catch them early. Once assured that the horse is not at the end of it's form cycle as indicated by speed and pace figures, I find them just as valuable as in stakes races.
One must also be aware that there is more chicanery as well as just plain bad riding in lower class races which can screw with expected results. Bad riders with no sense of pace must be avoided at all costs or as Ainsle would say are "Bad for the digestion". The problem is that they sometimes win by sheer luck which is hard to predict. The notion of pace pattern is largely unknown to them. Pace and final pars must be viewed with suspicion as they may have been set by riders that didn't pace their horse properly and do not represent optimal energy distribution but just jockey poor opinion which becomes the norm. At major tracks the better jocks have more likely figured out how to distribute their energy.
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:49 AM   #45
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Damn dude, you need to shut the hell up....I've got a fist full of red-cards, doesn't change anything. What happened to being polite and moving on?...You're full of shit and a phony lying ass, that's what happened.
What happened to your "I'm done" Of the 2 of us I'm the one that has the class to not continue your game of vicious insults. By all means, continue to show what you are in your endless posts.
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