|
|
09-20-2018, 11:32 AM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
|
Daily Double Wagering Strategy
Longtime daily double fan. I will wait for my desired odds to show up, typically mid range (4-1 or higher) to long shots in both legs if possible. Does it make sense from an ROI perspective to throw in a strong favorite in either leg of the double as a "saver" bet. I have recouped some of my losses through savers but not sure if that is a good idea for ROI in the long term. Interested in the board's thinking either supported by database, books or personal experiences. Thanks in advance.
|
|
|
09-20-2018, 11:45 AM
|
#2
|
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,719
|
My strategy is based on what my strongest opinions are on that day and if I don't feel confident in playing the daily double, I skip it all together.
There is too many combinations for a daily double on any day like 1 favourite/3top picks or 2/3, 2 longshots/1 favourites and so on. Just follow my rule of if you don't feel confident, don't play it. Hope this helps.
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
Last edited by CheckMark; 09-20-2018 at 11:46 AM.
|
|
|
09-20-2018, 12:14 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
My strategy is based on what my strongest opinions are on that day and if I don't feel confident in playing the daily double, I skip it all together.
There is too many combinations for a daily double on any day like 1 favourite/3top picks or 2/3, 2 longshots/1 favourites and so on. Just follow my rule of if you don't feel confident, don't play it. Hope this helps.
|
These things I know, looking at this from a bankroll perspective only.
|
|
|
09-21-2018, 02:12 PM
|
#4
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubicon55
Longtime daily double fan. I will wait for my desired odds to show up, typically mid range (4-1 or higher) to long shots in both legs if possible. Does it make sense from an ROI perspective to throw in a strong favorite in either leg of the double as a "saver" bet. I have recouped some of my losses through savers but not sure if that is a good idea for ROI in the long term. Interested in the board's thinking either supported by database, books or personal experiences. Thanks in advance.
|
IMO...it isn't prudent to judge a wager strictly by its ROI potential. Yes...your ROI would probably improve if you confined your bet structuring to horses in the mid-range and longshot levels...but doing so introduces a couple of factors into the equation which will likely sabotage the optimum long-term growth of the bankroll assigned to such a wager. By eliminating all the shorter-priced horses from consideration, you reduce the number of overall bets that you will be making over time. And, the lower success rate of the higher-priced horses will mean that you will have to supply a larger bankroll for the endeavor...to deal with the more turbulent variance swings that you are sure to encounter in such a venture. Consequently...you will likely find that, as a result of these two factors...your long-term bankroll will grow at a lesser rate than it would if you were including some shorter-priced horses into the wager...higher ROI notwithstanding. The inclusion of the shorter-priced horses will probably reduce your long-term ROI, but it will also allow you to make more bets over time...and the required bankroll size would be smaller because of the reduced "turbulence" that is the byproduct of such a wagering "compromise". These two wagering "advantages" often more than make up for the lower ROI rate that this wagering plan must necessarily carry along.
That's why I am seldom impressed by high ROI declarations. "How long will it take to safely double the bankroll?"...is the main money-management question to ask...IMO. Of course, as with everything else...the success of this venture will depend upon the ultimate skill level of the practitioner. Clever wager construction can only take us so far...
__________________
Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 09-21-2018 at 02:14 PM.
|
|
|
09-21-2018, 08:45 PM
|
#5
|
$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
|
Don't really have an answer for you Rubicon since I never play the DD, but I have a question: Do you use the probables that the tracks publish before the race when making your DD bet? Does the DD payout pretty-much match the probables or do they fluctuate as much as the win bet?
Last edited by Redboard; 09-21-2018 at 08:49 PM.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 12:09 AM
|
#6
|
Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubicon55
Longtime daily double fan. I will wait for my desired odds to show up, typically mid range (4-1 or higher) to long shots in both legs if possible. Does it make sense from an ROI perspective to throw in a strong favorite in either leg of the double as a "saver" bet. I have recouped some of my losses through savers but not sure if that is a good idea for ROI in the long term. Interested in the board's thinking either supported by database, books or personal experiences. Thanks in advance.
|
This is my play and might be an idea or two for you.
Going wide on doubles is not my saver. Going wide to hedge a double is better applied in a pick3. Average double payoffs can't support width.
Because Doubles pools do show the probables and will pays, I think doubles are better bet straight
Best practice.
Get a glimpse of the Double Probables as soon as pools are displayed. You can learn alot about the following race from that quick look. Early double money is a much better grasp of smart money across 2 races.
The main thing I'm looking for is a premium over the win pools.
Last edited by Suff; 10-03-2018 at 12:11 AM.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 02:16 PM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO...it isn't prudent to judge a wager strictly by its ROI potential. Yes...your ROI would probably improve if you confined your bet structuring to horses in the mid-range and longshot levels...but doing so introduces a couple of factors into the equation which will likely sabotage the optimum long-term growth of the bankroll assigned to such a wager. By eliminating all the shorter-priced horses from consideration, you reduce the number of overall bets that you will be making over time. And, the lower success rate of the higher-priced horses will mean that you will have to supply a larger bankroll for the endeavor...to deal with the more turbulent variance swings that you are sure to encounter in such a venture. Consequently...you will likely find that, as a result of these two factors...your long-term bankroll will grow at a lesser rate than it would if you were including some shorter-priced horses into the wager...higher ROI notwithstanding. The inclusion of the shorter-priced horses will probably reduce your long-term ROI, but it will also allow you to make more bets over time...and the required bankroll size would be smaller because of the reduced "turbulence" that is the byproduct of such a wagering "compromise". These two wagering "advantages" often more than make up for the lower ROI rate that this wagering plan must necessarily carry along.
That's why I am seldom impressed by high ROI declarations. "How long will it take to safely double the bankroll?"...is the main money-management question to ask...IMO. Of course, as with everything else...the success of this venture will depend upon the ultimate skill level of the practitioner. Clever wager construction can only take us so far...
|
Gus, as always thank you for the thoughtful response. I had the same feeling about whether to cover low priced pay offs. It also helps out a bit in the level of mental frustration as lower paying doubles win more. Looks like the original assumption is valid for me. Thanks again.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 02:19 PM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuss
This is my play and might be an idea or two for you.
Going wide on doubles is not my saver. Going wide to hedge a double is better applied in a pick3. Average double payoffs can't support width.
Because Doubles pools do show the probables and will pays, I think doubles are better bet straight
Best practice.
Get a glimpse of the Double Probables as soon as pools are displayed. You can learn alot about the following race from that quick look. Early double money is a much better grasp of smart money across 2 races.
The main thing I'm looking for is a premium over the win pools.
|
Thanks Fuss, yes checking the probable payouts not only makes sense but also may indicate plays in the second leg that may not have been under consideration. Thanks for your take.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 02:24 PM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
Don't really have an answer for you Rubicon since I never play the DD, but I have a question: Do you use the probables that the tracks publish before the race when making your DD bet? Does the DD payout pretty-much match the probables or do they fluctuate as much as the win bet?
|
I should check the probables more than I currently do. For me picking multiple potential winners instead of a single win bets makes betting doubles a better winning strategy. HIstorically for me I find the probables do a fairly good job on the actual payout. Thanks for the response.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 03:30 PM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
|
Bet your opinion. I've never knowingly met any player that has done better than catch a saver here or there. I know the ROI on my saver bets over the years is atrocious. Much better left unbet, and haven't really bet any savers of note in years. Get over that "it feels good to have at least cashed a ticket" feeling, because that's all a successful saver bet ultimately does, while the losing saver bets just adds to the red mess at the bottom of the column.
Bet, then live or die with, your well thought out opinions.
Last edited by ultracapper; 10-03-2018 at 03:34 PM.
Reason: crappy english
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 03:36 PM
|
#11
|
Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
|
Are you playing now? I took this early double pool screen shot.
Race 4 to 5 happening now.
Double probables are Critical on off-turf or track condition betting days.
$20.00 horse #6 won the 4th. 10 min to post for race 5 now. The 4 is 2nd favorite at 2-1. 10-1 ML , but its off turf so the ML is only valuable to a double player in that it STILL says 10-1 and very few actually know that the #4 will actually be 5/2 or 2-1 here, 2nd favorite. If you capped the race ahead, you would have a good sense that the 4 is really the only horse that can beat the 3/5 favorit.
But if you look at the early double, probable is $45, he is the 3rd favorite double.. almost 4th best... The 4 is bet in doubles as if 4-1 or 5-1 might typically pay. But here you have him at 2-1 , but getting paid like 6-1.
8 minutes to post, the will pay is now $58 for a buck. I'm 2nd favorite on the board at 5/2 with 8 min to post.
The 13 could win,, but really, that horse at 3/5 is so bad. I cant touch that thing.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 03:51 PM
|
#12
|
Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
|
shit. horse #4. No run. 3/5 favorite beat though. It would of been nice for the example to catch the winner. Anyway, I'm on to Cincinnati. ( race 6 )
I like doubles... I think I saw the Double pool for race 4 was $27K , the Show pool as $20,000. It looks like Doubles are not the big bet they used to be.
"He's betting the Double" was an old Boston neighborhood expression to say someone is doing well. You had to be at the track in them days, so if someone was so situated they could be at Suffolk at 1:00 they were doing well. Self-employed, Union Boss, Gangsters... only the top guys could be trackside during working mans hours.
Most guys that wore work boots to work were not at the Track at 1:00 in them days..
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 04:13 PM
|
#13
|
Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
|
5 and 8 wheeled in the 6th. either 1.
|
|
|
10-03-2018, 06:15 PM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Bet your opinion. I've never knowingly met any player that has done better than catch a saver here or there. I know the ROI on my saver bets over the years is atrocious. Much better left unbet, and haven't really bet any savers of note in years. Get over that "it feels good to have at least cashed a ticket" feeling, because that's all a successful saver bet ultimately does, while the losing saver bets just adds to the red mess at the bottom of the column.
Bet, then live or die with, your well thought out opinions.
|
Good advice and thank you.
|
|
|
10-04-2018, 11:27 AM
|
#15
|
Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
|
only on NYRAbets
Belmont 10% Winner's Bonus Doubles
Hit a Double ($5 base min) at Belmont for a 10% Winner's Bonus every Thursday in October! Bonus capped at $20 per player per day. Bonus will be placed in player account within 48 hours of race day. Customer must be in good standing to receive the bonus. Double bet must be a $5 base minimum to qualify.
Promotion dates: October 4, 11, 18, 25
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|