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Old 08-16-2018, 10:47 AM   #1
OverlayHunter
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Influence of Various Factors on Final Odds

I understand that the importance of various factors can vary based on the particular situation of each race but I’m trying to get a better general sense of which factors most often have the most influence on creating the final odds.

I suppose it may also vary based on whether or not it is a race or track that attracts money from whales in that I’m guessing that whales must have a somewhat different approach than the general public.

The following is a list of what I consider the most likely factors to have the most influence in most races ranked roughly in what my gut suggests is the likely order of most influence to least influence on the final odds. I’d be shocked if it is correct. (The factors and the order are in no way related to my approach to the game.)

I’m hoping that others may have a better sense of this than I do. Please share your thoughts. Thank you for your assistance.

Figs (best or not / competitive or not / from comparable race or not)

Class (same, drop, rise / some class formula)

Competitiveness (the relative capability of true contenders)

Form (current / anticipated)

Improvement (hints that horse might improve - 2nd back, 3rd back, works, etc.)

Trainer / Trainer Change (very good, good, fair, poor / better, same, worse)

Jockey / Jockey Change (very good, good, fair, poor / better, same, worse)

Works

Distance (success or not / switch) (will be higher on the list in some circumstances)

Surface (success or not / switch) (will be higher on the list in some circumstances)
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Old 08-16-2018, 11:29 AM   #2
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I suspect that trainer and jockey play a fairly big roll these days and so does overall record. If 2 horses ran a similar race last time but one has the clearly overall better record, the more consistently good one will take more money.
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Old 08-16-2018, 11:56 AM   #3
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Good idea for a thread.
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Old 08-16-2018, 12:06 PM   #4
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classhandicapper - good point, I should have thought of that (or, at least, its "cousin" - its record in today's circumstance (class, dist, surf)

headhawg - thank you
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Old 08-16-2018, 01:16 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by OverlayHunter View Post
I understand that the importance of various factors can vary based on the particular situation of each race but I’m trying to get a better general sense of which factors most often have the most influence on creating the final odds.

I suppose it may also vary based on whether or not it is a race or track that attracts money from whales in that I’m guessing that whales must have a somewhat different approach than the general public.

The following is a list of what I consider the most likely factors to have the most influence in most races ranked roughly in what my gut suggests is the likely order of most influence to least influence on the final odds. I’d be shocked if it is correct. (The factors and the order are in no way related to my approach to the game.)

I’m hoping that others may have a better sense of this than I do. Please share your thoughts. Thank you for your assistance.

Figs (best or not / competitive or not / from comparable race or not)

Class (same, drop, rise / some class formula)

Competitiveness (the relative capability of true contenders)

Form (current / anticipated)

Improvement (hints that horse might improve - 2nd back, 3rd back, works, etc.)

Trainer / Trainer Change (very good, good, fair, poor / better, same, worse)

Jockey / Jockey Change (very good, good, fair, poor / better, same, worse)

Works

Distance (success or not / switch) (will be higher on the list in some circumstances)

Surface (success or not / switch) (will be higher on the list in some circumstances)
I mostly agree with the order you placed these factors in.
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Old 08-16-2018, 01:31 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OverlayHunter View Post
I understand that the importance of various factors can vary based on the particular situation of each race but I’m trying to get a better general sense of which factors most often have the most influence on creating the final odds.

I suppose it may also vary based on whether or not it is a race or track that attracts money from whales in that I’m guessing that whales must have a somewhat different approach than the general public.

The following is a list of what I consider the most likely factors to have the most influence in most races ranked roughly in what my gut suggests is the likely order of most influence to least influence on the final odds. I’d be shocked if it is correct. (The factors and the order are in no way related to my approach to the game.)

I’m hoping that others may have a better sense of this than I do. Please share your thoughts. Thank you for your assistance.

Figs (best or not / competitive or not / from comparable race or not)

Class (same, drop, rise / some class formula)

Competitiveness (the relative capability of true contenders)

Form (current / anticipated)

Improvement (hints that horse might improve - 2nd back, 3rd back, works, etc.)

Trainer / Trainer Change (very good, good, fair, poor / better, same, worse)

Jockey / Jockey Change (very good, good, fair, poor / better, same, worse)

Works

Distance (success or not / switch) (will be higher on the list in some circumstances)

Surface (success or not / switch) (will be higher on the list in some circumstances)
I personally don’t use any of the factors mentioned because I no longer handicap.
The evaluation of all the factors listed becomes a purely subjective and highly speculative interpretation by Outsiders trying to forecast an event based on “past” information.

I believe a more realistic approach to determining why the final odds are being generated would be to recognize that perhaps not every entry in the race is actually trying to win the race. I would also recommend realizing that the so called “Public” money may also include Insider money (and not necessarily Whales). The betting population is comprised of players at many levels of sophistication and bank roll size.

If your planning to be betting a lot of money, I would also recommend objectively examining the physicality aspects of the selected entries. This alone may also play a part in affecting the betting pools.
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Old 08-16-2018, 02:14 PM   #7
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I don't think you could use these different factors in isolation when you assess their final-odds influence. To me, the figures deserve top billing only if they are connected to the other pertinent factors...like proper class, surface and distance. Otherwise...the top-figure horse will repel the support of the "big money". And if the "figure-horse" is claimed from a 'magician', and is now under less "capable" hands...then its impressive prior figures will get downgraded plenty when they are transferred to the tote board. So...how can we claim that the figures are still the most important determinant of the final-odds?

The game has changed, and the betting has gotten more sophisticated...thus causing the figures to lose a lot of their "luster". When even an Andy Beyer declares that "the overreliance on the figures can only lead to the poorhouse"...then, how could it be otherwise?
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Old 08-16-2018, 09:35 PM   #8
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Thaskalos and Nitro, you both make valid points and, to be sure, there will be different hierarchies for different races with various factors being more important in one race versus another.

For me, at least, I think there is a lot of value in being able to identify a core group of values that will be influential in a wide variety of races (even though they may vary in importance from race to race) to help zero in on at least the top 2 favorites and where their final odds are likely to end up.

I believe that most handicappers who play regularly develop an intuitive sense of that (as I do) but I'm hoping to sharpen my skills (get closer to the final odds more often before making my wagers), perhaps by learning from others about factors that they use that I don't consider often enough (or at all), or with a large enough emphasis.
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Old 08-17-2018, 09:58 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by OverlayHunter View Post
Thaskalos and Nitro, you both make valid points and, to be sure, there will be different hierarchies for different races with various factors being more important in one race versus another.

For me, at least, I think there is a lot of value in being able to identify a core group of values that will be influential in a wide variety of races (even though they may vary in importance from race to race) to help zero in on at least the top 2 favorites and where their final odds are likely to end up.

I believe that most handicappers who play regularly develop an intuitive sense of that (as I do) but I'm hoping to sharpen my skills (get closer to the final odds more often before making my wagers), perhaps by learning from others about factors that they use that I don't consider often enough (or at all), or with a large enough emphasis.
One factor,I don't see mentioned is looking at double and pick three probables. In most cases, they will predict the favorites in the current race. Generally,horses bet in these pools are bet in the race.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:24 AM   #10
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This is what my data tells me.

Most important for the data you probably have:
1. Morning Line
2. High-level factor such as BRIS Prime Power. (We use HDW's PSR.)
3. Speed Ratings, time-weighted. (i.e. newer ratings are worth more.)
4. Trainer standings at the track.
5. Early running style.
6. Jockey standings at the track.


We use similar to these in our software. Biggest difference is that we have 3 different high-level factors (i.e. like BRIS Prime Power).

Thus, ours looks like:
1. ML
2. PSR
3. Older version of PSR.
4. RTG (A proprietary factor that using 32 other factors weighted.)
5. Speed Ratings (weighted for races back).
6. Trainer at the track.

Once these numbers are computed, they must be normalized to 100%.

Steps to finalize
1. The final percents must be skewed towards the top by about 9%. That is, build a "normal" for the race. Example, 10% in a 10-horse field is a 1.00. In an 8-horse field 12.5% becomes 1.00.

2. Raise all of the "IVs" to the power of 1.09.

3. Normalize once again to 100%.

This will give you some pretty good pool percentages which can then be turned into odds.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:44 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
This is what my data tells me.

Most important for the data you probably have:
1. Morning Line
2. High-level factor such as BRIS Prime Power. (We use HDW's PSR.)
3. Speed Ratings, time-weighted. (i.e. newer ratings are worth more.)
4. Trainer standings at the track.
5. Early running style.
6. Jockey standings at the track.


We use similar to these in our software. Biggest difference is that we have 3 different high-level factors (i.e. like BRIS Prime Power).

Thus, ours looks like:
1. ML
2. PSR
3. Older version of PSR.
4. RTG (A proprietary factor that using 32 other factors weighted.)
5. Speed Ratings (weighted for races back).
6. Trainer at the track.

Once these numbers are computed, they must be normalized to 100%.

Steps to finalize
1. The final percents must be skewed towards the top by about 9%. That is, build a "normal" for the race. Example, 10% in a 10-horse field is a 1.00. In an 8-horse field 12.5% becomes 1.00.

2. Raise all of the "IVs" to the power of 1.09.

3. Normalize once again to 100%.

This will give you some pretty good pool percentages which can then be turned into odds.
Dave,not wanting to make this sound too simple.Everything you have mentioned is probably built in to the will pays.I am generally talking about NY racing. Speed figures and trainer patterns are definitely part of the will pays Jockeys have always affected price in NY. Even most trips are included. If you are a good enough race watcher and can pick up something subtle, that might not be included. Probably,also included in those figures are the sheet players.Last week a player names Marc at GiddyUPBETs,saw something not included in numbers and picked a $$40.00 horse at Saratoga. He uses numbers, but saw something the numbers didn't show. I didn't bet the horse and have no affiliation with the company, but that is the kind of information.that every once in awhile slips thru the cracks.
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:49 AM   #12
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classhandicapper - good point, I should have thought of that (or, at least, its "cousin" - its record in today's circumstance (class, dist, surf)

headhawg - thank you
I agree.

Unquestionably the public is sophisticated enough to look through a horse's record and weed out some of the irrelevant races.

A backdoor example of overall record is using prior odds.

Let's say 2 horses raced against each other last time. The winner was 35-1 and the 2nd place finisher was 5/2. They had similar trips etc..and you conclude the 35-1 horse was simply better that day. If they go against each other again, that 5/2 will often be favored again despite losing last time. They'll be WAY closer in odds, but they won't flip (if they were 5-1 and 5/2 last time they probably would flip).

It's not so much their prior odds that matter to the follow up betting (except maybe with 1st time starters that took a lot of money), but those odds are sometimes a good proxy to the horse's overall record coming into that race. That overall record will continue to impact future betting with new races having more and more impact.
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Old 08-17-2018, 12:18 PM   #13
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It all comes down to who the whales bet right after post time.

The factors I would apply are

>drugs used today
>lack of drugs in other horses
>recent stiffs to darken form
>trainer specific secrets
>The jockey factor -
"who will grab today"
"Who will heard today"
(basically who is riding and who is riding to win)
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Old 08-17-2018, 12:20 PM   #14
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Dave,not wanting to make this sound too simple.Everything you have mentioned is probably built in to the will pays.I am generally talking about NY racing. Speed figures and trainer patterns are definitely part of the will pays Jockeys have always affected price in NY. Even most trips are included. If you are a good enough race watcher and can pick up something subtle, that might not be included. Probably,also included in those figures are the sheet players.Last week a player names Marc at GiddyUPBETs,saw something not included in numbers and picked a $$40.00 horse at Saratoga. He uses numbers, but saw something the numbers didn't show. I didn't bet the horse and have no affiliation with the company, but that is the kind of information.that every once in awhile slips thru the cracks.
No disrespect meant but do you have a database of projected odds versus actual odds using your approach? If not, what you have is "anecdotal."

I can tell you that the approach I offer translates into the projected favorite actually being the 1st or 2nd choice 84% of the time.

As for NYRA, yes, projecting the tote is very track/circuit dependent. In addition, it is also very sensitive to days of the week and level of track.

In fact, DOW and track class level is probably more important than being track-specific. This is because we no longer live in a "home-track" environment. While many of us may think of a specific track as home, across the land of data we find people playing multiple tracks.
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Old 08-17-2018, 02:29 PM   #15
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No disrespect meant but do you have a database of projected odds versus actual odds using your approach? If not, what you have is "anecdotal."

I can tell you that the approach I offer translates into the projected favorite actually being the 1st or 2nd choice 84% of the time.

As for NYRA, yes, projecting the tote is very track/circuit dependent. In addition, it is also very sensitive to days of the week and level of track.

In fact, DOW and track class level is probably more important than being track-specific. This is because we no longer live in a "home-track" environment. While many of us may think of a specific track as home, across the land of data we find people playing multiple tracks.
I agree with you and I am sure your approach is accurate. One thing,I can tell you and I don't mean this in a disrespectful way, because I see all the work you have done, but if you want to take the time or if someone has a data base and just tracks DD will pays on a regular basis,I aim willing to guess that the favorite in the double is 1st or 2nd choice more than 84 % of the time in NY. Other than knowing which horse will be 1st or 2nd choice, this doesn't mean much to me.I agree that we no longer have the home track environment and certainly some out of the out of town town tracks using the DD probables might not come close to 84%1st or 2nd choice.
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