How to make money in horse racing

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

The problem is, no two races are run alike.

Does that mean you can't make a living at the races if no two races are alike?
That sounds like "Failure to Doom" for the Future. Didn't William L. Quirin
group horse races into categories of Early Speed in his book "Winning At The Races" such as:

CHAPTER 1: The Significance of Early Speed
Pace makes the Race I: The Rabbit
Pace makes the Race II: The Duel
Pace makes the Race III: The Paceless Race

Why not go further and do the whole race into Early, Late and Whole Race .


I must read that chapter.

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It amuses me when I read posts like this, which hint that "wagering" is somehow more important than 'handicapping'. Doesn't our wagering hinge on our handicapping? I mean...without sharp handicapping, what kinds of wagers would we be able to make?

I even see some posters here who claim that a superior 'bettor' who is also a mediocre 'handicapper' would be able to outplay someone who is the reverse. And I wonder...how can a "mediocre" handicapper make 'superior" bets?

There's a famous incident at a Handicapping seminar. Andy Beyer and some one else as part of a celebrity panel was asked "What is the breakdown of handicapping and money management in terms of focus?"

They discussed among themselves before speaking to the crowd for a moment.

And they publicly Announced in union that horse racing players/competitors should spend "30% handicapping and "70%" money management.

In Spirit I believe this but not in actual time spent.

It's too early for me to say in my studies that its 30% or greater in handicapping and the remainder a certain percentage of money management. As I need to study and listen to others.


Thought I would let you know.

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Give me a great handicapper who is a lousy bettor...and I'll give him a couple of money management rules and he'll be fine. But a lousy handicapper who is a great bettor? I don't believe that such a player exists.

HANDICAPPING SELECTION SYSTEM
=======================

1. For DIRT tracks. How about a bettor who who tosses a die to determine the horse to bet on a regular DIRT track - no hills, no sharp chutes, temperamental surface, etcetera. Horses #1 to #6 POST(Not necessarily the Saddle Cloth Number) for DIRT on the die roll.

2. For TURF tracks. Roll a die and add 1 to the result. i.e. bet Horses #2 to #7 POST(Not necessarily the Saddle Cloth Number). At one TURF track post #1 was a disadvantage in Impact Values.

[Triopstor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The biggest losers that I have ever met at the track have also cashed the biggest tickets.

Biggest tickets in terms of Mutual price or do you mean betting size?


That's interesting. I was told that professional bettors go for the range near 4-1 horses. Say I guess 4-1 to 7-1.

[elhelmete]

What am I actually reading here?

[romankoz]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer;2874367]anything that can be automated and then can probably create some new things.

Say a horse has 3 consecutive adverse trip patterns; There's now an increased probability that this horse's form is 'darkened' and presents value.

RKoz replies:
I have some luck at times with outsiders by utilizing adverse trip patterns where a horse may have been wide all the way or been outclassed or wasn't suited some other way such as the track condition. I call them "Forgive Runs" and they can be very handy with well fancied runners too as the public can be blinkered (pardon the pun) by some runs.
There was a horse here last Saturday called Unflinching I would forgive for his run as I think he is not suited by the long run home at the track. He is more one of those that zip around corners, establish a break while the others wobble around the home turn on tighter tracks.

[romankoz]

Originally Posted by MJC922

That isn't to say there aren't any profitable trainer patterns or any other profitable patterns.

RKOZ replies: There are many trainer patterns but I guess the issue with some is the low sample figure or some higher dividends than you would expect. One trainer I have 285 runs for horses at $5 or less (4/1) who is showing a ROI of 19% BUT because he is not thought of as a top trainer some of his dividends of winners have been double the morning price due to a lack of public interest.

He makes 12% on 141 runners at $4 (3/1) and less so the basic maths suggests he has had a really good run on runners at 13/4 to 4/1. I am adding him to my list of under rated trainers and THOSE are the ones worth following.

To overcome the low numbers perhaps its an idea to consider a group of similar trainers with low numbers of starters (say 10) and call them List 1 and consider the lot as if they were one trainer. I tend to watch my outlays on some trainers and sort of target bet them for interest bets.

Many ways of patterns in this game.

[romankoz]

Originally Posted by Triopstor

1. I like asking the question pre-race "Why is the Trainer entering this horse(Sometimes 2) in this race?

RKOZ: Absolutely THE question with some trainers.

[romankoz]

[QUOTE=Triopstor;2875675]There's a famous incident at a Handicapping seminar. Andy Beyer and some one else as part of a celebrity panel was asked "What is the breakdown of handicapping and money management in terms of focus?"

They discussed among themselves before speaking to the crowd for a moment.

And they publicly Announced in union that horse racing players/competitors should spend "30% handicapping and "70%" money management.

RKOZ replies:
Surely all this discussion refers to exotics betting. Apologies if this has been mentioned.
What money management is needed if you bet to win $100 on a horse you rate 2/1 if you get 2/1 or more. The bet is $50 or if you get 3/1 the bet is $34 if you don't trust your pricing.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

What am I actually reading here?

Son of forumula_2002 -- or a close relative at least.

[classhandicapper]

The easiest way to make money in horse racing is to get someone to buy your book(s), information, or selections.

[thaskalos]

Make money betting horses? I think it's easier to make money doing anything else.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The easiest way to make money in horse racing is to get someone to buy your book(s), information, or selections.

Tell that comment to a like guy like Bill Benter! I’d love to witness his reaction!

I think that anyone who believes that it’s mandatory to be a handicapper to play and be very successful in the horse racing game has been totally (and adversely) indoctrinated by all that literature that’s been published. Many might agree that close to 90% of those claiming to be so-called seasoned “handicappers” and followers of traditional methodologies are outright long-term losers.

Not only has Bill Benter never written a book about the topic, but he has also never claimed to be a handicapper to begin with. He’s a very intelligent and scholarly Mathematician who obviously has all the faith and ability he needed to believe in his personal approach to attacking the game with his own program. It’s obvious that his personal endeavors, hard work, and dedication paid off BIG time.

I personally think it’s ironic that although decades apart both he and Pittsburgh Phil are from the same area of the country. BTW I found both Pittsburgh Phil’s Axioms and Mr. Benter’s reports to be very enlightening (and they're Free). I highly recommend reading both thoroughly for anyone serious about staying profitable.

As some might know, I’ve personally been using a different tactic. I believe my mentor has also developed a unique and highly sophisticated program that also spurns the typical handicapping strategies. Aside from spending hours searching for playable entries of interest I can instead focus my attention on what I believe is the most important part of any business: Decisions on getting the best bang for the buck and managing the bankroll properly. I think I’m on the right track by modestly acknowledging that since my initial ADW deposit, I have since never had to refuel the tank.
,
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[castaway01]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think most "lousy bettors" remain that way because that's how they have cashed their most memorable tickets. The biggest losers that I have ever met at the track have also cashed the biggest tickets.

This is underrated brilliant. It's true for a lot of things---we do something in a dumb way that works out, and we just can't stop following that path again and again.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Tell that comment to a like guy like Bill Benter! I’d love to witness his reaction!

I think that anyone who believes that it’s mandatory to be a handicapper to play and be very successful in the horse racing game has been totally (and adversely) indoctrinated by all that literature that’s been published. Many might agree that close to 90% of those claiming to be so-called seasoned “handicappers” and followers of traditional methodologies are outright long-term losers.

Not only has Bill Benter never written a book about the topic, but he has also never claimed to be a handicapper to begin with. He’s a very intelligent and scholarly Mathematician who obviously has all the faith and ability he needed to believe in his personal approach to attacking the game with his own program. It’s obvious that his personal endeavors, hard work, and dedication paid off BIG time.

I personally think it’s ironic that although decades apart both he and Pittsburgh Phil are from the same area of the country. BTW I found both Pittsburgh Phil’s Axioms and Mr. Benter’s reports to be very enlightening (and they're Free). I highly recommend reading both thoroughly for anyone serious about staying profitable.

As some might know, I’ve personally been using a different tactic. I believe my mentor has also developed a unique and highly sophisticated program that also spurns the typical handicapping strategies. Aside from spending hours searching for playable entries of interest I can instead focus my attention on what I believe is the most important part of any business: Decisions on getting the best bang for the buck and managing the bankroll properly. I think I’m on the right track by modestly acknowledging that since my initial ADW deposit, I have since never had to refuel the tank.
,
.

I am open to championing Bill Benter in the manner described, if there is evidence that he did anything more than catch lightning in a bottle, by being the first to technologically correlate data vs. an unsophisticated public, in an environment with massive pools and the capacity to wager huge sums. He has spawned a movement of wannabes, so much so that computer handicapping is one of those "traditional methodologies".

Beyer's description of "Charlie The Pro" finds him wagering enough to win an average yearly salary on one winning bet, when a horse is "1-9" in his judgement, at minimum 5-1 odds. In 1970's terms, let's say $5k at 5-1, winning 70% of such relatively rare situations. That's a 400% return vs. Benter's self-described 25%.

But having already documented Andy's chronological rearrangements in "My $50k Year"...(literary license I'm told), I'm prone to agree with classhandicapper.