Best Betting Strategies for Long-term Success?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a question that I would like to pose to everyone here, and I will explain the reason for my question after I see some of the answers that I receive. The question is...if I deposit $1,800 into your Twinspires account this morning, do you think that you can make a profit of $30 on your next day of betting? And...how risky a betting style would you be willing to adopt in order to make this $30 profit?

Where are you going with this proposition?.....Lay it out for me.

[Ahorsewithnoname]

Originally Posted by castaway01

In the "old days" you sometimes heard 5%. Currently, with the takeout being what it is, and the value being sucked out of the pools, I can't see how it is higher than 1%. I've read some clever stuff in this thread about guessing probable odds in advance and that is all well and good, but you're still jumping into a pool (pun intended) that has had most of the water removed. You might just break your leg and not your neck but you're still not winning.

"Profitable" is always tricky. If I hit a huge Pick 4/5 win this year, I will possibly end the year profitable, but I have to do that every year or I'm not profitable. Despite what I sometimes read here, I think the number of "grind it out with steady win bets" profitable players has to be a tiny fraction of those who still play. I mean, it always was, but now it's really tiny.

I agree... I am usually only a win place show bettor. Sometimes a Daily Double or Pick 3. With the DB and P3 I usually find a single in one leg.

[lefty359]

I make win bets with my mild progression System.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by lefty359

I make win bets with my mild progression System.

What exactly is a "mild progression System" ?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

What exactly is a "mild progression System" ?

I believe it is something like this. Let's say you are a $20 a horse win bettor. Instead of betting $20 on each horse you up your bet slightly on each bet. Say by 10$. So let's say instead of betting 5 horses in a row for $20 each and the 5th horse wins at 4-1. Instead of breaking even as you would betting $20 on each horse, by raising 10% on each bet 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, you break even. Of course instead of risking $100 you risked $150. So you increase your bankroll significantly with no gain. Of course maybe your 5th horse win at 10-1 instead of 4-1 and you win $100 more while you only lost $20 in the previous 4 races making your net an extra $80. Personally not a big fan of progression, but whatever pays the bills. The higher the bets get the harder it will get to pull the trigger on a horse you like, clouding your judgement. If you lose 10 in a row, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, you next bet is now $40 not $20. and you are now down $290 instead of $180. Do you have the same objectivity at this point (on whether a horse should be deemed a play or not), Unlikely, compounding your problems. Comfort zone is paramount in effective gambling. JMO. By the way for the chest beaters out there that would laugh at making a $20 win bet, just add a zero to each number I posted. The point is the same.
Make the money, then build the bankroll, don't build the bankroll assuming you will make the money.

[Poindexter]

Just hit me that I made an assumption that mild progression was based off of betting more off of each loss. But Mild Progression also can be made off of a win. Like a blackjack player who wins for 15, then bets 20, wins and then bets 25.... etc. That is a completely different subject matter and if that is what Lefty meant, my post would not apply to his post.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

What exactly is a "mild progression System" ?

Lefty was kind enough to send me his Real World Betting System a couple of months ago.

It is remarkably well-written, with some very self-explanatory charts.

It is not mine to disclose the actual system, but his description is apt: it is what I would call a Mild Low Side Progression towards profit in a given session.

Not sure if Left still sells it or not, but if you like the concept of a mild-chase-your-losers approach, it may provide you with some new knowledge.

[lefty359]

Thanks for the kind words, Dave.

[lefty359]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a question that I would like to pose to everyone here, and I will explain the reason for my question after I see some of the answers that I receive. The question is...if I deposit $1,800 into your Twinspires account this morning, do you think that you can make a profit of $30 on your next day of betting? And...how risky a betting style would you be willing to adopt in order to make this $30 profit?

With pretty good selections and decent progression and $1800 it shouldn't be too hard.
Some days you would make more, some days less.
I tried it today and I made $57. I played the same horses for real but with
less money and a lesser goal.
Had mostly low price winners but a place bet that pd $17.50 pulled it out.
My progression was not the one I sent Dave, but something I call a partial dutch as I played 2 horses per race.
Some days probably will not make it before you run out of races you want to play. In that case just carry it over. $1800 should be plenty, didn't need anywhere near that today.

[lefty359]

I played nothing but longshots today and hit one 10-1 horse on last bet I made. So I didn't make the $30 but left $13 dangling for tomorrow.
Let me say I played all thr longshots but with my Real World plan which is safer and saner.

[lefty359]

Ok, yesterday I left $13 unrecovered as I I ran out of races I wanted to play.
Today I added $13 to $30 to make $43.
I had no price over $1o and change.
I ended with $19 unrecovered.


I think I made my point. With a good BR, reasonable selections and a good betting plan, you can make money. You won't get rich, but you can make your racing hobby pay you.
thanks for reading...