Extreme Pace by Examples

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Allright here's one for the Santa Monica today(SA-7).They oughta change the name of this race to "The plight of the lightly raced 5yo mare vs 2 new 4yo's and all within 3 starts of layoff"!!

The 2 4yo's look tough.

(3)E6.....(2)E/P7.....(6)P5.....(5)P/C.....(7)C
.............(1)E/P5.....(8)P3..........................
..............................(4)P4............... ..........

PPG-23 x 1

Technically the #3 is an E6 but I think in this field she could get loose.She's the only completely headstrong speed horse in here.Normally I don't like frontrunners in G1's off layoffs,but there seems to be little pressure here.The #1-2 don't look like they can do much,although they aren't working like it.The #1 in a 3 turn sprint at CT ran a 98 BSF and the pace looks slow-6.Even lightly raced,before her triumph at CT in a 250K stakes,she was eligible for a N3X,but don't see huge room for growth.Is 3 for 5 off layoffs and has a few nice works.

Switch is next in line as a P3.It's been 5 weeks since the G1 win in the LaBrea.Over her last 5 she's within 2 lengths at the pace call.The 7F is perfect.Two bullet drills since.

I took a look at the #5 but they had just gotten her rolling and she won 2 graded stakes,the last on Ky Derby day,then they lay her off for 8 months?

The #6 is making her 2nd start off layoff.Another one who had back to back wins,including the Sunshine Millions F/M Sprint and takes a vacation for 10 months.

Looks pretty chalky between the 3 and 8.Pica gets 1st jump.If she improves the 1.5 BSF per month between layoff and now she could run a big one.If she tires going 7f Switch overhauls her.The #5-6 for minor awards.

Thanks, Cincy, I appreciate the post.

Mike

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Allright here's one for the Santa Monica today(SA-7).They oughta change the name of this race to "The plight of the lightly raced 5yo mare vs 2 new 4yo's and all within 3 starts of layoff"!!

The 2 4yo's look tough.

(3)E6.....(2)E/P7.....(6)P5.....(5)P/C.....(7)C
.............(1)E/P5.....(8)P3..........................
..............................(4)P4............... ..........

PPG-23 x 1

Technically the #3 is an E6 but I think in this field she could get loose.She's the only completely headstrong speed horse in here.Normally I don't like frontrunners in G1's off layoffs,but there seems to be little pressure here.The #1-2 don't look like they can do much,although they aren't working like it.The #1 in a 3 turn sprint at CT ran a 98 BSF and the pace looks slow-6.Even lightly raced,before her triumph at CT in a 250K stakes,she was eligible for a N3X,but don't see huge room for growth.Is 3 for 5 off layoffs and has a few nice works.

Switch is next in line as a P3.It's been 5 weeks since the G1 win in the LaBrea.Over her last 5 she's within 2 lengths at the pace call.The 7F is perfect.Two bullet drills since.

I took a look at the #5 but they had just gotten her rolling and she won 2 graded stakes,the last on Ky Derby day,then they lay her off for 8 months?

The #6 is making her 2nd start off layoff.Another one who had back to back wins,including the Sunshine Millions F/M Sprint and takes a vacation for 10 months.

Looks pretty chalky between the 3 and 8.Pica gets 1st jump.If she improves the 1.5 BSF per month between layoff and now she could run a big one.If she tires going 7f Switch overhauls her.The #5-6 for minor awards.

Hi Cincy,

I believe in the value of race dynamics, but I've always believed that their effectiveness is overrated at this level, where class usually tells. When I look at this race, I simply think 'How can the 8 lose?' I agree that the 3 is the only threat, but the layoff and the crushing loss in its only previous effort at this level makes me think there's not much value to be found anywhere in this race. Interesting post though.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Fastracehorse]

is pertinent everywhere, especially stakes IMO

RC 10 gp

I'll take 8 over 4,3,7

4 could wire 'em and 3 is a wonderful bomb

fffastt

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by CapperAl

8.0 F ( Dirt) HolyBull-G3 ($400K) 3yo

E = Early, E/P = Early or Presser, P = Presser, P/C = Presser or Closer, C = Closer

(99) = BRIS speed figure of 99, #3 = Program number 3

Pace Pressure = 30x1

.... E6 #8 (91) ..... E/p6 #7 (99) .... P(NA) .... P/C2 #1 (93) .... C1 #2 (94)
.... .................... E/p8 #4 (94) .... ............. ...................... C5 #6 (90?)
.... .................... E/p5 #5 (92) .... ............. ...................... C1 #9 (89?)
.... .................... E/p5 #3 (90) .... ............. ...................... ................

It looks like a possible early speed collapse. This will set up the lone P/C #1 for the win.

I'm in such a funk lately it's not even funny. I key boxed the 8 w/ 1-4-7.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

I'm in such a funk lately it's not even funny. I key boxed the 8 w/ 1-4-7.

....now i know

i put him on my list

fffastt

[Capper Al]

# .. Win .... Place .... Show
9 .. $7.40... $4.80 . .. $3.60
8 ........... $13.00.....$6.60
1 . .................... $3.60
7

My place bet on the #8 saved me and I made a little. The #9 was an unknown quantity and, when it start to take money, this should have turned it into a skip race. So I bet $8.00 on it. Usually my skip races are $12.00(discipline?). I just can't skip a race that I spent time capping.

Barring the unknown quantity of the #9, I was able to predict the flow of the race. The #4 lead up to the half. The #7 tried to gain from there. The #1 had a wall of front runners in front of him. The #8 tried resulting in a fast pace. And the speed colapsed. Before Giles, I could have never predicted this.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse

is pertinent everywhere, especially stakes IMO

RC 10 gp

I'll take 8 over 4,3,7

4 could wire 'em and 3 is a wonderful bomb

fffastt

I was posting about the Forward Gal at SA, where the 8 also figures. Gotta bag the multitasking! BTW, in this race though would have gone with 1, but not at the price, and also wouldn't have touched 9 at the price. My take - the 9 is got a huge break on heavily speed-biased track.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by lansdale

I was posting about the Forward Gal at SA, where the 8 also figures. Gotta bag the multitasking! BTW, in this race though would have gone with 1, but not at the price, and also wouldn't have touched 9 at the price. My take - the 9 is got a huge break on heavily speed-biased track.

i'll do the 7th at SA

the 9 did have pace to run at but he was the winner at the top of the stretch

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

#3 Pica Slew

fresh ( which I love )

[Fastracehorse]

.....ahh ha ha ha

i'm bad

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

how 'bout
9//4,7,8

sharp horse this 9

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

won easy back in 9 days

i lost ez back in 9 mins

fffastt

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by CapperAl

# .. Win .... Place .... Show
9 .. $7.40... $4.80 . .. $3.60
8 ........... $13.00.....$6.60
1 . .................... $3.60
7

My place bet on the #8 saved me and I made a little. The #9 was an unknown quantity and, when it start to take money, this should have turned it into a skip race. So I bet $8.00 on it. Usually my skip races are $12.00(discipline?). I just can't skip a race that I spent time capping.

Barring the unknown quantity of the #9, I was able to predict the flow of the race. The #4 lead up to the half. The #7 tried to gain from there. The #1 had a wall of front runners in front of him. The #8 tried resulting in a fast pace. And the speed colapsed. Before Giles, I could have never predicted this.

You were right about the pace collapsing Al,you just happened to be on the wrong horse this time.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The Santa Monica looked pretty kindergarten on paper and chalky.Can't wait to see Switch on the stretchout.She was the one who nearly beat Zenyatta last year.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by CapperAl

# .. Win .... Place .... Show
9 .. $7.40... $4.80 . .. $3.60
8 ........... $13.00.....$6.60
1 . .................... $3.60
7

My place bet on the #8 saved me and I made a little. The #9 was an unknown quantity and, when it start to take money, this should have turned it into a skip race. So I bet $8.00 on it. Usually my skip races are $12.00(discipline?). I just can't skip a race that I spent time capping.

Barring the unknown quantity of the #9, I was able to predict the flow of the race. The #4 lead up to the half. The #7 tried to gain from there. The #1 had a wall of front runners in front of him. The #8 tried resulting in a fast pace. And the speed colapsed. Before Giles, I could have never predicted this.

Did you look at the bloodlines on the 9? Look at the auction price and the work tab. IMHO, a stakes with lightly raced horses is not a good race to focus solely on pace.