Artificial Intelligence in handicapping. WOW!

[TonyK@HSH]

Not long ago, there was a thread initiated by Paceadvantage questioning if the handicapping world is taking advantage of technology opportunities. There was a lot of participation in the thread, but no real answers before it eventually fizzled out.
A few days ago, I had an opportunity where our own Dave Schwartz demonstrated how he is utilizing Artificial Intelligence in his current software development. The product will be called The Determinator!! Dave shared some truly fascinating concepts and demonstrated how this technology is improving his results. Granted, The Determinator is not fully completed but I witnessed some promising handicapping.
I hope Dave steps in with a release schedule and answers any questions we may have. It's not often when new opportunities present themselves. I should mention that this a not a 'black box' solution. Users have plenty of chances to influence the output from the AI engine.
Good luck to all in your handicapping.

Tony K

[lefty359]

If anybody can use AI for successful handicapping, it's Dave

[headhawg]

I got a preview of deTerminator last week from Dave. It's a lot like HSH with an extra layer of features, mainly the addition of the AI. Very cool stuff.

[wiretowire68]

I have spoken to Dave and it seems as far as going forward from what I have research he is the first company starting to take things a step forward. We have had great conversations and I have stated many times..software handicapping is fascinating and he is one of the kindest gentleman on here and always willing to talk and teach and be a salesman for the love of the game.

Looking forward to the price and the release.. P.S. Dave.. stop fiddling and Larry the Cable Guy continues to say.. "Get er done"

[Dave Schwartz]

I have begun building videos to explain The deTerminator software.

A few things I'll say up front.

First, thank you to all who sent those kind words.


I understand that there's a sentiment among horse bettors that "No computer can outthink me." Just remember that the whales have crushed us in mass to the point where the game has been all-but-ruined.

Therefore, computer software absolutely CAN outperform us. (I am certainly not immune to this myself.)


The AI Age is just arriving.
To my knowledge, The deTerminator is the first modern age AI of substance to tackle racing.

I assure you that this is not a case of "throwing a bunch of columns into a database and see what comes out."

I ask that you suspend your disbelief as you watch the videos.


If all goes well, the videos should begin to trickle in during next week.

______________________________
WHAT TO EXPECT
1. While deTerminator can certainly make black-box picks, that is not what it was designed for.

Know that it is NOT HSH.

Yes, I did pull in much of the 15,000+ hours of coding from HSH, but only a small amount of it is used, and what is used is mostly behind the scenes.

• There are actually only 3 handicapping screens.
• There is no database.
• You have everything you need on day one.
• You do not train the AI.
• Everyone gets the same output - but you can actually adjust that to make your output unique to you.
• You do not have to be a power user, but power users can choose to go deeper.
• You can still do pace handicapping or you can let the AI do the pace handicapping for you.

______________________________
2. A PRIMARY GOAL is to level the playing field with the whales.

Simply put, the game has gotten too difficult.
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3. We will accomplish this by providing NEW information - information that even the whales do not have. And, if they did have it, they could not do it without a drastic shift in how they handicap.

They would literally have to start over again.

I'll explain how and why this works early on.

______________________________
4. Another PRIME GOAL is for you to pretty much keep doing what you are doing now.

In other words, I want deTerminator to enhance what you're doing rather than you having to change to something drastically different.
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5. Here are a few highlights of what you can expect to see over the next couple of weeks:

• How to stop being hornswoggled by odds changes after the gate opens. In fact, most of the time you will KNOW AHEAD OF TIME who the whales are going to bet.
  
• How to know which race is chaotic and likely to result in a big payoff. This will be a must for Tournament players.
  
• How to START with likely longshots.
  
• How to find BALOs - Bet Against Low Odds horses.
  
• How to structure tickets to LEVERAGE the advantages in ways you've probably never even considered.
  
• How to know which call in the race is likely to be THE KEY CALL. Perhaps more import, to know which call the WHALES think is important.

.
______________________________

[Gekish]

I have been handicapping for 70+ years. Here are some lessons for A.I. to solve. Bumped at the gate, on the turns. Locked in at the inside during the strech run. Carried wide on the last turn. Lugging out in the strech run. Jockey drops the whip. This is why I love front runners.

[equusvates]

You don't have to predict the race, just beat the odds. i.e. Overcome the variance. It is possible and has been done.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by equusvates

You don't have to predict the race, just beat the odds. i.e. Overcome the variance. It is possible and has been done.

Exactly.

A.I.
I have been handicapping for 70+ years. Here are some lessons for A.I. to solve. Bumped at the gate, on the turns. Locked in at the inside during the strech run. Carried wide on the last turn. Lugging out in the strech run. Jockey drops the whip. This is why I love front runners.

The logical question is: "With all your experience, have you solved those lessons?"

And would it have even mattered if you had?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by equusvates

You don't have to predict the race, just beat the odds. i.e. Overcome the variance. It is possible and has been done.

Just because it has been done, doesn't mean that it can be done NOW.

[Gekish]

Good handicapping or a good program can give you a good estimate of a horse's chances, theoretically. What happens during the race is another story altogether.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Just because it has been done, doesn't mean that it can be done NOW.

Why couldn't it be done NOW?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Why couldn't it be done NOW?

I am not only taking myself as an example...I am also going by every single horseplayer that I have ever known during my 43 years of playing this game. And none of us...NONE of us...are betting the same money now that we did a decade ago. Many, myself included, have decided to give up this game altogether. And, while the serious horseplayers are betting less and less with each passing year...the mega-betting computer groups are betting more and more with each passing year, and soon they will comprise the lion's share of the wagering pools.

When you spot the best poker player sitting at a poker table, you might consider sitting down with him if you spot several suckers also participating in the same game...with the intention of largely avoiding the poker "genius" while isolating on the 'suckers'. But when you see the world's 5 best poker players sitting at the same table...then there is no money left on that table for a mere mortal. That's my opinion, at least.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I am not only taking myself as an example...I am also going by every single horseplayer that I have ever known during my 43 years of playing this game. And none of us...NONE of us...are betting the same money now that we did a decade ago. Many, myself included, have decided to give up this game altogether. And, while the serious horseplayers are betting less and less with each passing year...the mega-betting computer groups are betting more and more with each passing year, and soon they will comprise the lion's share of the wagering pools.

When you spot the best poker player sitting at a poker table, you might consider sitting down with him if you spot several suckers also participating in the same game...with the intention of largely avoiding the poker "genius" while isolating on the 'suckers'. But when you see the world's 5 best poker players sitting at the same table...then there is no money left on that table for a mere mortal. That's my opinion, at least.

I think I've missed your point.

Although it sounds like you might be saying that the whales are so tough that nobody can beat them.

The whales use statistical methods.

Done correctly, artificial intelligence is quite capable of eating statistical approaches for breakfast.

Time will tell.

Sales will be limited to 200 copies.






.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I think I've missed your point.

Although it sounds like you might be saying that the whales are so tough that nobody can beat them.

The whales use statistical methods.

Done correctly, artificial intelligence is quite capable of eating statistical approaches for breakfast.

Time will tell.

Sales will be limited to 200 copies.






.

If that is the case, then logically, they will be doing AI too, and probably better.

[Dan Montilion]

Dave. I find this very intriguing. In your opening post to this thread.

4. Another PRIME GOAL is for you to pretty much keep doing what you are doing now.

In one of our conversations you mentioned "story handicappers", which pretty much describes my approach. Would you think the deTerminator would fit into a "story handicappers" game?