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07-28-2014, 08:43 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty Cide
sometimes the writting is just on the wall.
for example Sammy Watkins and Teddy Bridgewater are going to be great NFL football players
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Sammy, no doubt . . . but Teddy, plenty of doubt
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07-28-2014, 09:57 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,047
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As of this time last year the 2013 three year old crop had done the same against older horses as this years three year old crop. Nothing. During the rest of the year Kentucky Derby winner Orb finished eighth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Preakness winner Oxbow never raced against older horses. Belmont winner Palice Malice finished second in the JCGC and sixth in the Breeders Cup Classic.
Will Take Charge was second in the Breeders Cup Classic and first in the Clark handicap. Verrazano was fourth in the Dirt Mile and third in the Cigar Mile. That is not a bad record, but it is certainly one which this year's three year olds can improve on.
I know you guys hate comparative times, but I am going to do it anyway. In thirteen major three year old races run on the dirt up to this time, the 2014 winner ran a faster time than the 2013 winner on eleven occasions.
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
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07-29-2014, 11:10 AM
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#18
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
In thirteen major three year old races run on the dirt up to this time, the 2014 winner ran a faster time than the 2013 winner on eleven occasions.
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interesting
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07-29-2014, 12:23 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty Cide
in that guys book however that dont qualify as solid.... thats whats actually laughable
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"best 3 year old crop in a LONG time" is a little different then saying a horse is solid....
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07-29-2014, 12:25 PM
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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cant say we've had that many 'solid' 3 year olds lately, kinda feel past few years have been weak
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07-29-2014, 01:37 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
I know you guys hate comparative times, but I am going to do it anyway. In thirteen major three year old races run on the dirt up to this time, the 2014 winner ran a faster time than the 2013 winner on eleven occasions.
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I'm willing to concede that might be an indicator of something. Certainly there's no reason to think that ALL those tracks had lower variants this year.
Bear in mind, though, that 2013 isn't really what you call a good 3 year old crop. 2007, or 1997, or 1987, are examples of good 3 year old crops. (Maybe the next one will be in 2017. )
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07-29-2014, 01:45 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I'm willing to concede that might be an indicator of something. Certainly there's no reason to think that ALL those tracks had lower variants this year.
Bear in mind, though, that 2013 isn't really what you call a good 3 year old crop. 2007, or 1997, or 1987, are examples of good 3 year old crops. (Maybe the next one will be in 2017. )
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I also compared this year to 2007. In that case the division was fairly even although two of the races could not be compared due to a change in distance.
I think we need to wait for a definitive answer, but I THINK this years crop is better than last years and in the running for best in the last ten at least.
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"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
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07-29-2014, 02:14 PM
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#23
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How Cliche
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Northern California
Posts: 530
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thread is overlooking shared belief.
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07-29-2014, 02:16 PM
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by how cliche
thread is overlooking shared belief.
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can he win a big time race at age 3 first?
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07-29-2014, 02:41 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 166
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I think that is getting way ahead of yourself. Chrome still needs to convince me. I know he is an extremely nice horse, but how nice I have my pause button on. There was trouble behind him in Louisville and I think he was ahead of his generation. A very capable, thoroughly professional and talented runner with a style of running to carve out excellent position. The rest of the field was behind the bar (two major preps were won in surprises). I liked both big stakes over the weekend....seems promising. Shared Belief of course. Need to see what he can do with some strong company, but you can't really rag on him....the best thing company wise Chrome had done before Louisville was beating Candy Boy as well
2011 was fine. Sensational juvenile Uncle Mo couldn't materialize, but a darned nice colt in Animal Kingdom took over, as did Caleb's Posse once turned back (going on of course to win the BC Mile and champion sprinter honors), and who didn't like Shackleford? Everyone was expecting something from Mucho Macho Man, and he in time delivered. Point of Entry was from the same crop as well.
Last edited by ILovetheInner; 07-29-2014 at 02:42 PM.
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07-29-2014, 03:06 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ILovetheInner
I think that is getting way ahead of yourself. Chrome still needs to convince me. I know he is an extremely nice horse, but how nice I have my pause button on. There was trouble behind him in Louisville and I think he was ahead of his generation. A very capable, thoroughly professional and talented runner with a style of running to carve out excellent position. The rest of the field was behind the bar (two major preps were won in surprises). I liked both big stakes over the weekend....seems promising. Shared Belief of course. Need to see what he can do with some strong company, but you can't really rag on him....the best thing company wise Chrome had done before Louisville was beating Candy Boy as well
2011 was fine. Sensational juvenile Uncle Mo couldn't materialize, but a darned nice colt in Animal Kingdom took over, as did Caleb's Posse once turned back (going on of course to win the BC Mile and champion sprinter honors), and who didn't like Shackleford? Everyone was expecting something from Mucho Macho Man, and he in time delivered. Point of Entry was from the same crop as well.
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I agree 2011 turned out fine. And you can see how long we had to wait to really make that determination-- you really couldn't fully appreciate it until MMM won the BC Classic last year.
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07-29-2014, 03:32 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: buffalo, ny
Posts: 46
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not sure, there are still a lot of horses that are either hurt or just dropped off the radar and looked promising
Cairo Prince
Top Billing
We Miss Artie
General A Rod
Constitution
and Shared Belief
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Big
Ass
Mistake
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07-29-2014, 03:50 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mutualwagerer
not sure, there are still a lot of horses that are either hurt or just dropped off the radar and looked promising
Cairo Prince
Top Billing
We Miss Artie
General A Rod
Constitution
and Shared Belief
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That happens every year. Didn't We Miss Artie recently race at WO? And Shared Belief still has to face a good field on real dirt.
Last solid crop was 2007.
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07-29-2014, 04:20 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty Cide
This has got to be the best 3 yo crop in a long time.
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define "long time". Also, till they run in Whitney/Woodward/Pacific/JCGC/Breeders Cup races and WIN or come second by a nose - the word "best" or "great" need not be tossed around in vain.
We have known 3 yr old horses run in the Met mile after the Derby and win. or maybe that is last century for you
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07-29-2014, 06:21 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I agree 2011 turned out fine. And you can see how long we had to wait to really make that determination-- you really couldn't fully appreciate it until MMM won the BC Classic last year.
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Totally agree (did say it was too early to say much about this crop). Could be that Chrome comes back with the rest having caught up and they all get tarred by the older division. Or, it could be sensational things happen through early fall. It's hard to say right now, other than it is nice SB is back in style and Bayern has definitely come to hand impressively.
I will say that at this time in 2011, it wasn't hard to feel confident we had a good crop. Uncle Mo didn't pan so Animal Kingdom picked it up, then he didn't have a good Preakness and Shackleford gained every fan in the world, then off the Belmont Stay Thirsty got back going while in the meantime Mo's comeback was spoiled by a sensational Caleb's Posse.
This crop I don't think we've yet seen in full bloom. As some have pointed out, there have been some faces missing and I can't help but have my hunch that come fall the rest will have caught up to Chrome. It will be clearer soon enough.
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