Morning line odds-are they real??? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

redeye007 · 08-19-2016, 01:06 PM

I have been a fan of this game for a lot of years and in all my years I have never seen a more phony morning line especially at Del Mar and other California tracks.
It's almost impossible to know which horse is the best horse on paper glancing at the morning line. Several years ago this was not true. In a 10 horse field 7 runners are between 3-1 and 5-1 and the remaining 3 at 20-1. This is true in almost every race where there are at least 4 to 6 favorites in the race. And the wagering is no help either. It seems like the entire betting public comes up with the same horse apparently thanks to the internet. It seems like now you have to find a way to first beat the odds makers who appear to be using the same equibase data that we have been using for years and then the public who seem to all be using a computer and software now that they are affordable to everyone. Upon googling for thoroughbred handicapping software it seems like there are dozens of programs written by anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Microsoft's VB6 language. The best kept secret for many years was Brisnet and you could get blockbuster payouts but not anymore. Looks like the entire horse betting world has discovered Brisnet and it has definitely lost a lot of its value. I think for this reason the trainers and owners are not going to settle for anemic odds when they place a wager and they seem to be the ones who have changed the game. What do you guys think?

DeltaLover · 08-19-2016, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redeye007

I have been a fan of this game for a lot of years and in all my years I have never seen a more phony morning line especially at Del Mar and other California tracks.
It's almost impossible to know which horse is the best horse on paper glancing at the morning line. Several years ago this was not true. In a 10 horse field 7 runners are between 3-1 and 5-1 and the remaining 3 at 20-1. This is true in almost every race where there are at least 4 to 6 favorites in the race. And the wagering is no help either. It seems like the entire betting public comes up with the same horse apparently thanks to the internet. It seems like now you have to find a way to first beat the odds makers who appear to be using the same equibase data that we have been using for years and then the public who seem to all be using a computer and software now that they are affordable to everyone. Upon googling for thoroughbred handicapping software it seems like there are dozens of programs written by anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Microsoft's VB6 language. The best kept secret for many years was Brisnet and you could get blockbuster payouts but not anymore. Looks like the entire horse betting world has discovered Brisnet and it has definitely lost a lot of its value. I think for this reason the trainers and owners are not going to settle for anemic odds when they place a wager and they seem to be the ones who have changed the game. What do you guys think?

When you are asking if morning line odds are real, I as assuming that you are referring to their posterior verification and if this is the case then yes, indeed they are real. Last time I have checked, morning line behavior was close to the final odds, meaning that winning frequencies are correlated to the implied ranking having the top choice winning more times than the second choice etc.

More than this, I believe that as a bettor you should welcome a confusing or even “wrong” morning line. A “bad” ML is only beneficial for the expert handicapper since its impact in the crowd's opinion is very significant and can indeed create huge “overlays”.

I am not sure that I understand what exactly you mean when you are saying that brisnet has lost a lot of its value. Brisnet is a data provider thus I cannot see how it can loose any value as it has not removed any feature that is been provided for many years.

Also : Microsoft's VB6 best place, is in the museum of computing rather than writing handicapping software !

green80 · 08-19-2016, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redeye007

I have been a fan of this game for a lot of years and in all my years I have never seen a more phony morning line especially at Del Mar and other California tracks.
It's almost impossible to know which horse is the best horse on paper glancing at the morning line. Several years ago this was not true. In a 10 horse field 7 runners are between 3-1 and 5-1 and the remaining 3 at 20-1. This is true in almost every race where there are at least 4 to 6 favorites in the race. And the wagering is no help either. It seems like the entire betting public comes up with the same horse apparently thanks to the internet. It seems like now you have to find a way to first beat the odds makers who appear to be using the same equibase data that we have been using for years and then the public who seem to all be using a computer and software now that they are affordable to everyone. Upon googling for thoroughbred handicapping software it seems like there are dozens of programs written by anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Microsoft's VB6 language. The best kept secret for many years was Brisnet and you could get blockbuster payouts but not anymore. Looks like the entire horse betting world has discovered Brisnet and it has definitely lost a lot of its value. I think for this reason the trainers and owners are not going to settle for anemic odds when they place a wager and they seem to be the ones who have changed the game. What do you guys think?

The first part of what you say is true, the wagering public is becoming smarter and it is harder to find a horse going off much better than it's true odds. With the CRW's and wagering syndicates any overlay is gone in the last few seconds.

I think you are putting way too much weight on the trainers and owners betting. Believe it or not, most trainers rarely bet, especially the bigger ones. Trainers and owners both are interested in the purse money. I will say a lot of owners bet on their horse blindly, being convinced or wishing they have a shot, when they don't, but most of this is not smart money.
In short, trainers like bigger purses, not bigger odds on their horses. This is not to say they don't place a wager when they feel like they have a little information not available to the public, such as a horse coming back well of an injury, etc.. , but as a general rule trainers account for a small percentage of the pools.

Poindexter · 08-19-2016, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redeye007

I have been a fan of this game for a lot of years and in all my years I have never seen a more phony morning line especially at Del Mar and other California tracks.
It's almost impossible to know which horse is the best horse on paper glancing at the morning line. Several years ago this was not true. In a 10 horse field 7 runners are between 3-1 and 5-1 and the remaining 3 at 20-1. This is true in almost every race where there are at least 4 to 6 favorites in the race. And the wagering is no help either. It seems like the entire betting public comes up with the same horse apparently thanks to the internet. It seems like now you have to find a way to first beat the odds makers who appear to be using the same equibase data that we have been using for years and then the public who seem to all be using a computer and software now that they are affordable to everyone. Upon googling for thoroughbred handicapping software it seems like there are dozens of programs written by anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Microsoft's VB6 language. The best kept secret for many years was Brisnet and you could get blockbuster payouts but not anymore. Looks like the entire horse betting world has discovered Brisnet and it has definitely lost a lot of its value. I think for this reason the trainers and owners are not going to settle for anemic odds when they place a wager and they seem to be the ones who have changed the game. What do you guys think?

RE the morning line I do think that Jeff Tufts who used to do the Morning line in Southern California was phenomenal at it. I do not think the guy currently doing it at Del Mar is anywhere near as accurate. At Santa Anita John White is pretty accurate as far as rankings, but he doesn't use the right model(unless this has changed)

In so cal I find that the favorites are typically overbet and sometimes significantly. Some days I find value in almost every race, other days it seems like there is not a lot of value to be seen. Here is a listing of plays I have made at Del Mar this meet(my line, actual line and where they finished). It has been a good meet for me with value plays. But the point it that there are still some good betting opportunities out there(win or lose). But the bottom line is they are almost always 7-1 or higher. Value on the lower end of the odds board is almost non existent.

4.5 12 out
8 20 2nd
3 7 out
6 12 1st
6 11 2nd
3 9 3rd
2.5 4.5 2nd
15 54 4th
4 7 out
3 9 out
12 27 out
6 10 4th
12 24 out
4 11 out
3 9 2nd
4 8 4th
12 22 1st
5 11 1st
6 12 out
4 9 2nd
12 27 out
6 14 1st
5 10 out
4.5 9 out
8 20 out

TheOracle · 08-19-2016, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redeye007

I have been a fan of this game for a lot of years and in all my years I have never seen a more phony morning line especially at Del Mar and other California tracks.
It's almost impossible to know which horse is the best horse on paper glancing at the morning line. Several years ago this was not true. In a 10 horse field 7 runners are between 3-1 and 5-1 and the remaining 3 at 20-1. This is true in almost every race where there are at least 4 to 6 favorites in the race. And the wagering is no help either. It seems like the entire betting public comes up with the same horse apparently thanks to the internet. It seems like now you have to find a way to first beat the odds makers who appear to be using the same equibase data that we have been using for years and then the public who seem to all be using a computer and software now that they are affordable to everyone. Upon googling for thoroughbred handicapping software it seems like there are dozens of programs written by anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Microsoft's VB6 language. The best kept secret for many years was Brisnet and you could get blockbuster payouts but not anymore. Looks like the entire horse betting world has discovered Brisnet and it has definitely lost a lot of its value. I think for this reason the trainers and owners are not going to settle for anemic odds when they place a wager and they seem to be the ones who have changed the game. What do you guys think?

Hey Redeye

I don't know about California tracks but I started keeping track and following the Morning Lines for a couple of years for New York tracks.

So far, on the Turf at Saratoga, the Morning Line 2-1's have won 11 of their last 21 attempts and have hit the board 17 times within those 21 attempts.

You are getting a 55% return per $2 win wager and a 26% return per $2 win, place and show wager on the Morning Line 2-1's overall so far on the Turf.

The odds maker for Saratoga, at least on the Turf so far, has been very judicious in assigning a 2-1 Morning Line.

Out of 107 Turf races so far at Saratoga he's only given out 21 Morning Lines at 2-1 and he seems to lean on C C Brown's horses at times.

Interesting to note, that for distances going 1 Mile or better on the Turf the Morning Line 2-1's have won 9 out of their last 12 attempts averaging a little over $6 per win payout but the returns per $2 win and per $2 win, place and show are much higher.

I don't know what the odds maker's criteria is for giving out Morning Lines at 2-1 on the Turf but whatever it is, so far, it's working.

I will follow the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf more closely as the season winds down at Saratoga!!!

TheOracle · 08-20-2016, 11:17 AM

There's a Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf at Saratoga today in the 11th race:

#3 Converge

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle · 08-21-2016, 11:35 AM

#3 Converge finished 3rd for C C Brown yesterday only paying $2.50 for the show spot as the Morning Line 2-1 at Saratoga!!!

He has a coupled entry in the 4th race today at Saratoga on the Turf which is the only 2-1 Morning Line on the Turf for today going 1 Mile or better

#1 Idiosyncratic / #1A Performance Bonus

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle · 08-22-2016, 12:12 PM

#1A Performance Bonus finished 2nd for C C Brown yesterday going 1M 1/16th on the Turf

I have a glitch and cannot collapse the coupled entries so they appear as 1 attempt instead of 2 so the starts come out as 15 attempts instead of 14.

Nevertheless, the Morning Line 2-1s have hit the board in 12 of the last 14 attempts but have gone winless in the last 2 attempts!!!

Interesting to note that when you include today, of the 25 Morning Line 2-1s that have been given out, C C Brown's horses have accounted for 10 of the 25 which is 40%.

I am not sure why the odds maker is assigning so many of his horses the specific Morning Line of 2-1. Why not 5-2 or 8-5?

Let's see if he can get a win out of these 2 today!!!

4th race
#1 Detail

5th race
#12 Energy Policy

TheOracle · 08-22-2016, 09:18 PM

We finally got a win today with #1 Detail as the Morning Line 2-1 going 1 Mile or better on the Turf at Saratoga and paid $11.30 across the board!!!

This now makes 10 wins in 16 attempts in this situation for the Morning Line 2-1's and 13 of 16 have hit the board in this situation!!!

#12 Energy Policy was scratched in the 5th race today

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

sunshine · 08-23-2016, 10:29 AM

Morning line/forecast odds are just a guess at what the odds will be. They don’t know how a horse is feeling on any given day or if it is trying. It’s hardly worth setting up a race when betting at tote prices but fixed odds is another matter. The morning line can only be used as a rough guide.

TheOracle · 08-23-2016, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sunshine

Morning line/forecast odds are just a guess at what the odds will be. They don’t know how a horse is feeling on any given day or if it is trying. It’s hardly worth setting up a race when betting at tote prices but fixed odds is another matter. The morning line can only be used as a rough guide.

Hey Sunshine

I hear you it's just a forecast of what the odds will be but I just like to see what the winners and those in the money looked like at the end of the race.

So I look at the Morning Lines in addition to Trainers and Jockeys and try to squeeze out some profits sometimes it works and other times it doesn't work at all.

I also try to get a feel for what the odds maker is doing on occasion and then see how things turn out for that particular situation.

TheOracle · 08-23-2016, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sunshine

Morning line/forecast odds are just a guess at what the odds will be. They don’t know how a horse is feeling on any given day or if it is trying. It’s hardly worth setting up a race when betting at tote prices but fixed odds is another matter. The morning line can only be used as a rough guide.

Also Sunshine

The original post by Redeye was asking if the Morning Lines were real

I guess the ML's in California didn't quite jibe with the actual odds at the end of some of the races

I couldn't speak for the California tracks but for NYC and at Saratoga some of the ML lines are spot on, in fact, the ML 2-1's on the Turf have been paying close to $6 at distances greater than or equal to 1 Mile.

So in the case of the ML 2-1's on the Turf, not only has the ML forecast been accurate but the horses have so far been winning.

I'm just hoping the good fortune can continue.

sunshine · 08-23-2016, 12:57 PM

In that case: The morning line odds are real but not very accurate

TheOracle · 08-24-2016, 09:29 AM

There's a Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf at Saratoga today going at 1 Mile in the 7th race:

#2 Emerald Pond

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle · 08-24-2016, 09:06 PM

#2 Emerald Pond finished 2nd as the 2-1 Morning Line on the Turf today going at 1 Mile.

Once again, the odds maker went with C C Brown as the 2-1 Morning Line on the Turf going 1 Mile or better but his horse finished 2nd. I think the odds maker is definitely making it his business to place the 2-1 Morning Line on C C Brown's horses in this situation!!!

I am not sure why the odds maker chooses to make C C Brown's horses the Morning Line 2-1 in this situation but I will continue to keep track of it to see if it results in any more wins!!!