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Originally Posted by Tom
Try googling speed figures, too - there is so much more to them than you could ever imagine!
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I can't remember who it was, but somebody here said back in 2015 that his method was to take the Avg. Pace Ratings from the Bris Ultimates Race Summary -- E1, E2, and LP -- add them together, and if the sum was 300 or greater then you had a contender. It worked for Chrome that year, and, if I'm not mistaken, for Pharoah the following year. I didn't remember to look at it last year.
The Ultimates won't be out until the post position draw, so I just ran those pace numbers on each horse's last race to see what that looked like. Based on last race only, four horses met that criteria: Audible (304), Noble Indy (303), Bolt d'Oro (310), and Justify (322). A few others came close to the 300 number: Hofburg (299), Lone Sailor (295), Vino Rosso (290), and Enticed (290). And of course there are no Bris numbers available for Mendelssohn. (Disclaimer: I ran these early this morning before my second coffee, so no guarantees on my calculations!)
A couple of horses hit the 300 number on their second race back, but those were only at one mile.
As I recall, in '15 and '16 there were only a couple of horses in each of those fields that made the "300" cut. I'll report back after I look at the final averages later in the week. It's not the way I handicap, but a novel approach nonetheless.
