|
|
04-16-2017, 10:07 PM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
HONG KONG / SHA TIN - MON 4/17
Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields All 10 races on the Turf.
In observance of Easter the traditional Sunday card was moved to Monday.
Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM MON EST
TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#
For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true
I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis will follow.
|
|
|
04-16-2017, 11:24 PM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
EARLY SELECTIONS
I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the
Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #3 - #6 - #9
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.
R#1 - 1000M (5F) T……...1-3 W/ 6-5 .................1:00 AM EST
R#2 - 1400M (7F) T…......6-8 W/ 2-11-1-12 …...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#3 - 1800M (9F) T.........4-1 W/ 2-5-7-12.........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#4 - 1200M (6F) T….......2-4 W/ 5-7-6-9……...…2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #1 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#5 - 1400M (7F) T…….....1-2 W/ 8-7-10-6........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#6 - 1200M (6F) T….......5-3 W/ 6-7-8-10……..3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#7 - 1200M (6F) T..........1-8 W/ 2-3-9-11.......4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#8 - 1600M (8F) T.…….....1-3 W/ 2-7-4-6 …..….4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)
R#9 - 1600M (8F) T.….......8-3 W/ 14-5-7-9 ……..5:10 AM EST
R#10 - 1400M (7F) T.........1-7 W/ 9-10-12-13 …...5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #5 – Watch Live tote activity)
Good Luck today if you’re playing!
|
|
|
04-16-2017, 11:31 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
Verticals
1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.
3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins..
|
|
|
04-16-2017, 11:53 PM
|
#4
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
Dutching
Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:
Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1…… #5– 15/1……… #6– 4.2/1
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154
Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1…… #7– 2.7/1……… #2– 10/1
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 12:27 AM
|
#5
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
And Don’t Forget!
If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet,
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:14 AM
|
#6
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
R#1 - 1-3 W/ 6-5 – All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 6-3-1-5 – Dutch 0% Profit Margin – PASS
3rd choice $14.60 Early & Live - & $20.90 QUIN / $71.20 TRI BX (Very Generous!)
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:15 AM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
Results: R#1 - Dutch PASS
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.2 1.4 6.3 BET PRF
$4 $5 $15
$15 $13 $4 $32 $0 0%
$32 $32 $32
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:19 AM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
|
I never played Japan before. Could not believe what the tri paid when everyone on tv and you were picking them.
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:36 AM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
|
The 1 in race 2 pays $12 here and $63 there, or is there payout not U.S. money.
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:39 AM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 75
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by oughtoh
The 1 in race 2 pays $12 here and $63 there, or is there payout not U.S. money.
|
Their prices are based off $10 bets, I meant "investments."
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:42 AM
|
#11
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by oughtoh
The 1 in race 2 pays $12 here and $63 there, or is there payout not U.S. money.
|
Pool Winning Combination Dividend (HK$)
WIN 6 73.00 (You simply divide the HK$ Amt by 5 to get US$)
PLACE 6 34.00
3 12.50
QUINELLA 3,6 104.50
TIERCE 6,3,1 356.00
TRIO 1,3,6 32.00
FIRST 4 1,3,5,6 106.00
QUARTET 6,3,1,5 2,148.00
BTW we're playing Hong Kong & not Japan!
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:46 AM
|
#12
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
|
Yes. Thank you for the explanation.
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:46 AM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
R#2 - 6-8 W/ 2-11-1-12 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 1-12-6-5 – Live Dutch 81% Profit Margin - HIT
5th choice $12.70 Early & 3rd choice Live –& $68.80 QUIN / $511.00 TRI BX
Winner took a lot of late action!
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 01:48 AM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
Results: R#2 - Dutch HIT
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 5.3 10.0 BET PRF
$7 $13 $22
$22 $12 $7 $40 $32 81%
$73 $73 $73
|
|
|
04-17-2017, 02:11 AM
|
#15
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,043
|
R#3 - 4-1 W/ 2-5-7-12 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 12-1-5-2 – Dutch 47% Profit Margin - PASS
6th choice $15.30 Early & 4th choice Live - & $25.60 QUIN / $909.40 TRI BX (w/Some Great Value!)
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|