Belmont Stakes: Probables and Possibles

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by reckless

Personally, I would love it if Jason Servis does enter Maximum Security in the Belmont ... after keeping mum on this while telling everyone that the Haskell is his immediate goal.

The reality is this probably will not happen, especially if West and Baffert believe Game Winner is getting good again and feel they have a great shot winning at 1 1-2 miles.

I believe Maximum Security is better than Game Winner and is the best of the 3YOs, including Ocean Breeze and Will of War. I also admit to being antsy and do not want to have to wait for the BC Classic to sort out the 3YO crop. To me it's been sorted by now and I want to see the top three meet sooner rather than later.

I would also like to see Max meet Game Winner, War of Will and Tacitus to help sort out the top 4 sooner rather than later. I think he's much more likely to go in the Haskell as he is training at Monmouth and trainers usually like to keep top horses away from each other until they have to meet.
I don't think that Game Winner is getting good "again" as he remains as good as he ever was having run the best race in the Derby, earning the top TG figure by a good margin and pairing it up with his previous race. I'd like to see a rematch with Tacitus and War of Will to determine the current top 3YO. Later I'd also like to see a rematch between Max and any of these to clear up the final claim for top 3YO. We may not see that until the BC Classic.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by reckless

Personally, I would love it if Jason Servis does enter Maximum Security in the Belmont ... after keeping mum on this while telling everyone that the Haskell is his immediate goal.

The reality is this probably will not happen, especially if West and Baffert believe Game Winner is getting good again and feel they have a great shot winning at 1 1-2 miles.

I believe Maximum Security is better than Game Winner and is the best of the 3YOs, including Ocean Breeze and Will of War. I also admit to being antsy and do not want to have to wait for the BC Classic to sort out the 3YO crop. To me it's been sorted by now and I want to see the top three meet sooner rather than later.

Omaha Beach?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by reckless

if West and Baffert believe Game Winner is getting good again

I don't think it has anything to do w/GW getting good again.

I thought the Derby was just not at all the right race for him, and that he should run in the Belmont. I kinda had him pencilled in for the longer race all along.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

OK, that would have been clearer. There's a difference as to whether he'll be a short price and whether I would accept 5/2. I thought you were implying I would accept a short price because I liked him with the incredulous question mark. My mistake. Didn't mean to sound as sarcastic as I may have seemed as well.

That's what I hate about internet communication. Voice tone and intent are lost.

So, getting back to the intent of your original statement. I don't know if he'll go off at a short price until I see the final field. Actually, I might accept 5/2 on WoW, or whoever I bet, depending on if Game Winner, Tacitus or whoever else is in the race but, it's way too early to even say that. I trust I make myself obscure.

No worries.

Truth be told, I love the horse and bet him in both TC races so far. So, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he won.

However, I do have some concerns about him in this particular race. Here are the latest odds I could find.

Tacitus 5/2
War of Will 15/4
Game Winner 11/2
Owendale 7/1
Everfast 12/1
Master Fencer 12/1
Global Campaign 14/1
Intrepid Heart 14/1
Sir Winston 16/1
Plus Que Parfait 18/1
Spinoff 25/1
Tax 25/1

We’ll circle back after the PPs come out and see where we’re at.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by delsully

We’ll circle back after the PPs come out and see where we’re at.

OK!

[reckless]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Omaha Beach?

Ocean Breeze?? What the hell was I thinking? Sorry about that.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I don't think it has anything to do w/GW getting good again.

I thought the Derby was just not at all the right race for him, and that he should run in the Belmont. I kinda had him pencilled in for the longer race all along.

I bet against Game Winner in all three races this year. I thought his race in the Derby was excellent, gaining ground throughout the race. That's what I meant by him 'getting good' again. His Derby race, to me anyway, showed both improved fitness and gaining form, that's all.

I also thought the Belmont was the ideal spot for Game Winner, regardless of price.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

OK!

No Game Winner, I can hear the value getting sucked out of this race as we speak.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I don't think it has anything to do w/GW getting good again.

I thought the Derby was just not at all the right race for him, and that he should run in the Belmont. I kinda had him pencilled in for the longer race all along.

I thought the Derby was the perfect race for him and he ran the best race. He got slammed back early, lost 10 lengths going around that huge mob on the turns and still finished well. In a normal size field, he romps.
His bad luck could be my good luck however, as this way I'll get a better price if I bet him in the Belmont.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Damn. No Nick Zito entry or Prado mount?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by delsully

No Game Winner, I can hear the value getting sucked out of this race as we speak.

Sorry about that. Don't worry, I'll find something good to say about a couple of the others before the race.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by reckless

I also thought the Belmont was the ideal spot for Game Winner, regardless of price.

Well with him out I guess I'll wait to see if somebody else enters.
Bourbon War, Spinoff, and maybe Master Fencer look okay to me but I'm not excited about them

[classhandicapper]

The only thing I'm certain about is that I'm betting against War of Will if he's the betting favorite. I think he's a good horse and may have a good style for the Belmont, but you couldn't get a better trip than he got in the Preakness even if God was your betting partner.

Most of the better horses from the Derby didn't go in the Preakness.

He had a fast pace in front of him while sitting in the pocket.

He saved ground.

Most of the other contenders got hung wide and lost a lot of ground on a day I made it difficult to win with wide outside moves on the turns.

Now he's going to be stretching back out to 12F after losing his punch at 10F in the Derby (albeit with some trouble).

I already like Tacitus better than him and I haven't even started looking at anyone else.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The only thing I'm certain about is that I'm betting against War of Will if he's the betting favorite. I think he's a good horse and may have a good style for the Belmont, but you couldn't get a better trip than he got in the Preakness even if God was your betting partner.

Most of the better horses from the Derby didn't go in the Preakness.

He had a fast pace in front of him while sitting in the pocket.

He saved ground.

Most of the other contenders got hung wide and lost a lot of ground on a day I made it difficult to win with wide outside moves on the turns.

Now he's going to be stretching back out to 12F after losing his punch at 10F in the Derby (albeit with some trouble).

I already like Tacitus better than him and I haven't even started looking at anyone else.

I think he has an excellent chance in the Belmont though I can't make a pick before final entries are in.

Except for Tacitus, most of the better horses from the Derby who skipped the Preakness are also skipping the Belmont.
I agree he saved ground in the Preakness
He was close enough to a fast pace to have his TFUS speed figure raised.
We don't know what he'll do at 12 furlongs but has the top 3YO TFUS figure this year at 9 -10 furlongs - 122.
As far as losing his punch in the Derby, you can put a line through that race.
May or may not be better than Tacitus.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

most of the better horses from the Derby who skipped the Preakness are also skipping the Belmont.

Yup. the ones built for the 1-1/2 mile distance like Game Winner, Country House and Plus Que Parfait are all not running in our Belmont.

That makes it a real crapshoot for me, and many of the horses appear to have really "turfy" influences in their backgrounds.

I like the Japanese horse, Master Fencer and will include him on my ticket.


Something that a lot of people may not know, but if you folllow Japanese racing a lot (I do) you would know that their track is actually quite a bit deeper and slower than our Big Sandy. I am not crazy about Lep getting the mount, but he "can" bring in some nice closers in the stretch sometimes.