Belmont Stakes: Probables and Possibles

[delsully]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

You mean the last 6 seconds after he was fouled and had to recover and rebuild momentum. The Preakness showed what this horse can really do when not fouled. His TFUS Preakness figure was also better than Max Sec's winning Derby figure and the best 3YO figure run this year. He has already looked pretty fantastic. The only question is can he maintain his current hot form over the 12 furlongs of the Belmont. Don't see much evidence he can't.

You going to take 5/2 on him?

[zico20]

If War of Will, Tacitus, and Game Winner all go in the Belmont, all three horses will go off at 5-2. Will be a great betting race if you can pick the winner of the three, they will run 1-2-3, they are by far the best three horses of those that are running so far. The trifecta will pay at least between 60-70 dollars if we can get a field of 10 or more. Pick the winner and for 4 dollars you have the trifecta. Great value!

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by zico20

If War of Will, Tacitus, and Game Winner all go in the Belmont, all three horses will go off at 5-2. Will be a great betting race if you can pick the winner of the three, they will run 1-2-3, they are by far the best three horses of those that are running so far. The trifecta will pay at least between 60-70 dollars if we can get a field of 10 or more. Pick the winner and for 4 dollars you have the trifecta. Great value!

I would think War of Will should run well in the Belmont. But this race has plenty of super-weird results, so I definitely don't blame anyone for looking for price plays. Whwt I would warn people is the price plays often aren't very logical- plenty of Da Taras and Saravas and Commendables win this race.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Yes, it's big and sandy. I've galloped horses there. Also true that Japanese tracks are sandy so you can say that Mater Fencer is at least used to it and has had some success on the surface. Then again both Belmont and Japanese tracks also have other components and may differ overall. He doesn't seem to have a problem with typical American surfaces either and there are several American horses in the Belmont who have run better than him on them. He might have a chance at a minor placing though I wouldn't bet on it.

Unlike many people, I would never underestimate the Japanese horses, esp. not after watching Le Vent Se Leve. Had he not had leg problems and missed the BCC and dubai world cup, had he come over here he probably would have cleared the board. His trainer started him out, in his MAIDEN RACE, at 9F.

That trainer knows a true classic distance router when he's got one. Making horses like that run at distances that aren't optimum for them isn't a good idea, because they run 6th and 7th sort of like Country House who is not cut out for sprinty type races.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by delsully

You going to take 5/2 on him?

I didn't even say I was going to bet him. Can I please wait to see what the field will be first? I was merely defending him against silly criticisms and saying why he's a solid contender at this point.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by cj

Tacitus is going to win the Belmont.

Strong opinion.
Always liked that Colt.
Visually you could see him getting better race to race.
You're probably right.
Unless.......
I have him going for size........then sell your ticket for 33% on the number before the race......

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Unlike many people, I would never underestimate the Japanese horses, esp. not after watching Le Vent Se Leve. Had he not had leg problems and missed the BCC and dubai world cup, had he come over here he probably would have cleared the board. His trainer started him out, in his MAIDEN RACE, at 9F.

That trainer knows a true classic distance router when he's got one. Making horses like that run at distances that aren't optimum for them isn't a good idea, because they run 6th and 7th sort of like Country House who is not cut out for sprinty type races.

I know Japanese horses have done well when shipped but this horse is not Le Vent Se Leve. I thought Lani would run well in the Belmont based on his previous TC races and he did but did not win, though he ran an entertaining race. He was one of those Tapits who did not place. I don't think Master Fencer is a good as Lani was so I would not expect him to win either. All I have is what this particular horse has done at 10 furlongs in the Derby and I don't know who he'll be facing or what the pace scenario will be. Too much yet to be known to be more specific than that.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by cj

Tacitus is going to win the Belmont.

Looks to be the one to beat, for sure. Has lots of the boxes checked, pace fits, and has the least strikes against him.

BUT, this is a weird year for the 3YO crop. Usually the first couple of legs of the Triple Crown sorts things out, but I'm not convinced that either War of Will or Maximum Security are that good. There are still lots of unanswered questions.

And I'm also a bit leery of the horses who ran in the Derby, because history shows that race can really be a challenge for recovering. It would hardly be a shocker if a new shooter came into the race and ran away and hid.

I'll let the tote board be my guide. Should be an overlay or two in there.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I agree. He had to be good enough to take advantage of these conditions and earn such a good figure (122 TFUS). Top 3YO figure this year so far. He wasn't the only horse in the race that got a rail trip and was close to a fast pace.

He’s an awesome horse

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by zico20

If War of Will, Tacitus, and Game Winner all go in the Belmont, all three horses will go off at 5-2. Will be a great betting race if you can pick the winner of the three, they will run 1-2-3, they are by far the best three horses of those that are running so far. The trifecta will pay at least between 60-70 dollars if we can get a field of 10 or more. Pick the winner and for 4 dollars you have the trifecta. Great value!

I used Tacitus and Game Winner in the Derby and it wouldn't shock me if I use them again. (could use others).

War of Will has a good style and is clearly a good horse, but no matter how you slice it and no matter what you think of how that track was playing, he had as perfect a trip as you can ever get. He may win again, but he'll probably be overbet off that.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I didn't even say I was going to bet him. Can I please wait to see what the field will be first? I was merely defending him against silly criticisms and saying why he's a solid contender at this point.

Relax, just saying he’s going to be a short price.

[dilanesp]

I probably will bet War of Will, unless he's ridiculously short (I would take 5-2, but 7-5 would be ridiculous).

But, again, I respect the angle about longshots in the Belmont. This is a race that can produce impossible longshots simply because nobody wants to go 1 1/2 miles. So anyone who wants to go bombs away here has my blessing.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I probably will bet War of Will, unless he's ridiculously short (I would take 5-2, but 7-5 would be ridiculous).

But, again, I respect the angle about longshots in the Belmont. This is a race that can produce impossible longshots simply because nobody wants to go 1 1/2 miles. So anyone who wants to go bombs away here has my blessing.

Sure there can be impossible bombs, but we already know if Game Winner and Tacitus both run they can get the distance, they will relish it. Some of these horses being pointed to this race are just down right awful, probably won't be able to win an allowance race against older come October. I don't see any cheap speed in the race yet, that is how Da Tara won it.

[reckless]

Personally, I would love it if Jason Servis does enter Maximum Security in the Belmont ... after keeping mum on this while telling everyone that the Haskell is his immediate goal.

The reality is this probably will not happen, especially if West and Baffert believe Game Winner is getting good again and feel they have a great shot winning at 1 1-2 miles.

I believe Maximum Security is better than Game Winner and is the best of the 3YOs, including Ocean Breeze and Will of War. I also admit to being antsy and do not want to have to wait for the BC Classic to sort out the 3YO crop. To me it's been sorted by now and I want to see the top three meet sooner rather than later.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by delsully

Relax, just saying he’s going to be a short price.

OK, that would have been clearer. There's a difference as to whether he'll be a short price and whether I would accept 5/2. I thought you were implying I would accept a short price because I liked him with the incredulous question mark. My mistake. Didn't mean to sound as sarcastic as I may have seemed as well.

That's what I hate about internet communication. Voice tone and intent are lost.

So, getting back to the intent of your original statement. I don't know if he'll go off at a short price until I see the final field. Actually, I might accept 5/2 on WoW, or whoever I bet, depending on if Game Winner, Tacitus or whoever else is in the race but, it's way too early to even say that. I trust I make myself obscure.