Improbable

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

It's been a hot post

is it gonna stay hot?


what if post 5 is last this time? Does that mean it was 'due' and I should've played it when it was 'hot'?

I like Improbable. He's my derby horse... He's my key.

Will look at Vekoma's gate breaks a bunch of times, but chances are that I will see nothing significant.

Improbable could be fine, in a pocket coming into the first turn. I'm not concerned about the post, but it's far from a dream-draw either.

Maybe #5 is a golden post? Something about it...

[Hoops McCann]

he needs to break well for sure. get in behind Maximum Security in the first flight without too much traffic would be ideal. if he gets pinched and is in the 2nd half of the field going into the first turn, well, he will have to be a monster to pull it off.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Maybe #5 is a golden post? Something about it...

Could just be a fluke of recent renewals but inside posts have been good places to be in general. The post obviously doesn't win a race but, as you know, a decent horse from an inside gate travels less distance. I think it's a great spot for Improbable as he can get a decent position right off the bat in a race that I believe will favor the forwardly placed horses. Sure, stuff could happen on his side at the gate but that's not something I can forecast and therefore don't overthink the hypothetical.

[Fightingirish51195]

Game winner was my top choice. And improbable was my second. But I may need to reverse after the draw.

Post position is just so important

[Blenheim]

Here is the link to the trainer comments on post positions (scroll down). I think their comments may be helpful . . .

[delsully]

Does his gate antics in Arky give anyone pause? Certainly 150,000+ won’t help.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by delsully

Does his gate antics in Arky give anyone pause? Certainly 150,000+ won’t help.

wasnt that a one off situation? i dont remember that in any of his other races

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by delsully

Does his gate antics in Arky give anyone pause? Certainly 150,000+ won’t help.

Yup, posted such in Ark thread.....almost word for word but I said 160,000 screaming drunks. Changed equip but has had stretch issues too. Breeding is a ?, over bet. I'll pay to see this horse beat all of these.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

wasnt that a one off situation? i dont remember that in any of his other races

I don’t either, just food for thought.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

wasnt that a one off situation? i dont remember that in any of his other races

Never happened before... I just rewatched all of his races. I view the removal of blinkers is a positive though. (not that that was the cause necessarily)

[boys at tosconova]

i really wasn't that impressed with his KD run. i know he only lost by several, and he's a strong fit in the preakness, but he seems likely over bet. he was suppose to have more than he did.

it wouldn't surprise me if he won, and it really wouldn't surprise me if he lost and didn't run 1/2.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i really wasn't that impressed with his KD run. i know he only lost by several, and he's a strong fit in the preakness, but he seems likely over bet. he was suppose to have more than he did.

it wouldn't surprise me if he won, and it really wouldn't surprise me if he lost and didn't run 1/2.

He's a big part of a race that feels tough to bet, all the way around.

Certainly a 'default' favorite for the Preakness.

He is a touch small, and he's not a superstar, but he was my 'key' horse in the Derby. I loved that he had lost twice leading up, and I gave his Arkansas-meltdown a mulligan.

He did not run back to his 'A' race in the Derby.

I suppose that there are possibly legitimate excuses. He's not a closer, and when he would have best made his run, he had to wait behind a wall of horses, while taking a lot of wet kickback. I thought that he should have visually showed me, at least some of that postponed energy, at the very end of the race. When you have to wait behind a wall of horses, some of that should energy should flatter the closing kick. I did not see that.

I'm not a guy who then runs to pedigrees, etc... I already know certain things about an Improbable by the time they run in the Derby, and I look relative the expected performance. Improbable was empty on Derby day.

He's got the top trainer, and a top barn. Arkansas Derby was relatively short rest coming into the race. There could possibly be undisclosed info about Improbable's health, as there is always some 'unknown', in all races. It's not impossible that Improbable could be back to his highest plateau or even climbing towards a new peak. If Improbable runs his 'A' race or a new top, he'll look 'electric' vs this bunch.

It's also not impossible that Improbable is a bit below his peak form. His trouble in Arkansas may not have darkened a dominant horse's form much and he may have run about as well as he was capable of. The flat Derby effort reinforces that.

May be enough cheap speed in the Preakness where Improbable can muster the same flat performance, and be as happy as Bob can have him back in 2 weeks, and simply tackle the race nearing the far turn. Improbable's 'flat race' is still good enough to win here. It's not like War of Will is good enough to even beat the others, much less assertively dismiss Improbable. Anothertwistafate/Alwaysmining aren't superstars. But this is certainly a 'default' favorite scenario.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He's a big part of a race that feels tough to bet, all the way around.

Certainly a 'default' favorite for the Preakness.

He is a touch small, and he's not a superstar, but he was my 'key' horse in the Derby. I loved that he had lost twice leading up, and I gave his Arkansas-meltdown a mulligan.

He did not run back to his 'A' race in the Derby.

I suppose that there are possibly legitimate excuses. He's not a closer, and when he would have best made his run, he had to wait behind a wall of horses, while taking a lot of wet kickback. I thought that he should have visually showed me, at least some of that postponed energy, at the very end of the race. When you have to wait behind a wall of horses, some of that should energy should flatter the closing kick. I did not see that.

I'm not a guy who then runs to pedigrees, etc... I already know certain things about an Improbable by the time they run in the Derby, and I look relative the expected performance. Improbable was empty on Derby day.

He's got the top trainer, and a top barn. Arkansas Derby was relatively short rest coming into the race. There could possibly be undisclosed info about Improbable's health, as there is always some 'unknown', in all races. It's not impossible that Improbable could be back to his highest plateau or even climbing towards a new peak. If Improbable runs his 'A' race or a new top, he'll look 'electric' vs this bunch.

It's also not impossible that Improbable is a bit below his peak form. His trouble in Arkansas may not have darkened a dominant horse's form much and he may have run about as well as he was capable of. The flat Derby effort reinforces that.

May be enough cheap speed in the Preakness where Improbable can muster the same flat performance, and be as happy as Bob can have him back in 2 weeks, and simply tackle the race nearing the far turn. Improbable's 'flat race' is still good enough to win here. It's not like War of Will is good enough to even beat the others, much less assertively dismiss Improbable. Anothertwistafate/Alwaysmining aren't superstars. But this is certainly a 'default' favorite scenario.

Based off derby performance i kinda gotta grade Improbable and War of Will kind of equal.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Based off derby performance i kinda gotta grade Improbable and Ware of Will kind of equal.

Agreed.

From what I could see in the Derby (and without the benefit of knowing how a clean race would played out in the stretch run regarding WoW), their performances may have been roughly equal.

[thaskalos]

If we go strictly by their Derby performances...then Improbable and War of Will could be considered of equal caliber. But if we give the horses a more comprehensive look...then Improbable separates himself from War of Will quite convincingly...IMO. And, given the track condition of the Derby...I prefer the comprehensive view in this instance.

To me, Improbable is the Preakness's deserving favorite...whereas War of Will is a rank outsider.