Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
This. If you have good reason to take a stand against a well bet Baffert then you will get value. It is perhaps worth noting Baffert through 118 starts is only winning at a 19% clip this year but still hitting the money at a strong 60% rate. This in contrast to last year when he won at a 32% clip while hitting the money 59% from 348 starts. Splitting the difference, you're gonna beat Baffert about three out of four times but be cautious leaving him out of the trifecta.
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Exactly, I do the same thing with Brown and Pletcher here in Saratoga. A good way to play exactas is to use them but have another horse.
The exception is with horses like Improbable. That horse had multiple chances to win and could not close the deal. Those are tosses. Game Winner is approaching the same status. He was the only one I thought had a chance in the Derby of the three. But constantly making excuses for a horse taking that kind of money is hard to have faith in. Sometimes second best is the peak and then they regress.