0/21

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I always get a combination of a chuckle and annoyance at TV announcers who say about that a horse who has been beaten by several other horses in the race, "But he is by a sire who has produced several (name the big race) winners so he can't be discounted. Nonsense. Genetics aint that simple.

Breeding has its greatest applicability when the horse is being asked to do something he or she hasn't ever done before-- especially first time starters, first time on the grass, first time on an off track.

Honestly, when it comes to determining whether a bunch of 3 year olds who have mostly already been 1 1/8 miles can get 1 3/16 or 1 1/4 miles, I don't use it much at all.

[Blenheim]

War of Will is perfectly perplexing. The numbers and the percentages suggest he is not suited for the distance, but his performance indicates otherwise.

In Kentucky, he didn’t show up on radar (16/1) and was doomed by post position (1). Nevertheless, he ran a nice race and at the fifteenth-sixteenths marker was less than one length back. NO doubt, he was fading, had a rail trip w/slow fractions, but all things considered an impressive performance not to go down . . .

His pedigree is interesting, in particular Sadler’s Wells as the Broodmare sire and his Dosage Profile, DP 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41, provides clues as to his suitability to the distance. He possesses (4) points in the Solid category (most in this field), getting those points from Sadler’s Wells, as a broodmare sire his 2014 AWD is an impressive 9.55f. Is Sadler’s Wells transmitting stamina into this speedy War Front type? In addition, there is a statistical relationship between DP points and distance, classic points and distance and CD and distance. Of course, population statistics do not necessarily apply to the individual, but it’s always fun and the greatest challenge to find that one individual that represents the class.

Can’t see why this colt can’t win it. Only question is did the Kentucky take somethin’ out of or put somethin’ into him . . .

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

In Kentucky, he didn’t show up on radar (16/1) and was doomed by post position (1).

Can’t see why this colt can’t win it. Only question is did the Kentucky take somethin’ out of or put somethin’ into him . . .

There was no doom. He drew the rail but got an exceptionally clean break from the 2 hole after a late scratch.

He can certainly win the race. A typical renewal fits his style well. I'm not convinced he's fast or fresh enough but not gonna talk anyone out of a wager.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Breeding has its greatest applicability when the horse is being asked to do something he or she hasn't ever done before-- especially first time starters, first time on the grass, first time on an off track.

Honestly, when it comes to determining whether a bunch of 3 year olds who have mostly already been 1 1/8 miles can get 1 3/16 or 1 1/4 miles, I don't use it much at all.

IMO...it all depends on how much risk a bettor is willing to accept in his wagering. I too would like to get an "edge" by looking at breeding in order to better anticipate what a horse will do in an entirely new situation...but my experience tells me that I am better off waiting until the horse runs once or twice at the unfamiliar setting, before I can properly assess its chances of future success therein. Some players want to get the "jump" on the other bettors by anticipating "uncharted territories"...while I take pride in my ability to better handicap the relevant past performances that I actually see. Luckily...today's wagering landscape allows me the advantage of being as patient as I need to be while in search of a worthwhile betting opportunity.

[bpiets]

At a mile and quarter it makes a big difference in the trainers training thier mounts in the Preakness...Esspec. if the track comes up sloppy or muddy this Saturday ....lol...

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

His pedigree is interesting, in particular Sadler’s Wells as the Broodmare sire and his Dosage Profile, DP 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41, provides clues as to his suitability to the distance. He possesses (4) points in the Solid category (most in this field), getting those points from Sadler’s Wells, as a broodmare sire his 2014 AWD is an impressive 9.55f. Is Sadler’s Wells transmitting stamina into this speedy War Front type? In addition, there is a statistical relationship between DP points and distance, classic points and distance and CD and distance. Of course, population statistics do not necessarily apply to the individual, but it’s always fun and the greatest challenge to find that one individual that represents the class.

Can’t see why this colt can’t win it. Only question is did the Kentucky take somethin’ out of or put somethin’ into him . . .

Proved to be tougher than I thought. I've made that mistake before, can't say for certain I won't make it again. I'm gonna remember this one.

Congratulations to Mr. Casse and the connections of War of Will; colt ran a real fine race looks to be the best of the crop. Indeed, looks like he may have some stamina too . . .

Lookin' forward to seein' what he has for em' come the NY, NY!

Fractional Times:
22.50; 46.16; 1:10.56; 1:35.48; 1:54.34

Splits
22.50; 23.66; 24.40; 24.92; 18.86

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Breeding has its greatest applicability when the horse is being asked to do something he or she hasn't ever done before-- especially first time starters, first time on the grass, first time on an off track.

Honestly, when it comes to determining whether a bunch of 3 year olds who have mostly already been 1 1/8 miles can get 1 3/16 or 1 1/4 miles, I don't use it much at all.

I agree. This also applies to trainers. Unless there has been a change in trainers or this happens to be a new situation in which this trainer does particularly well, it is absurd to say this horse has been doing poorly but is being trained by superior trainer X. You've already taken that trainers contribution on the horse's past performance into account. Makes no sense to double that effect if it hasn't helped this particular horse before. Same thing applies to jockeys.

[GMB@BP]

So now what is that 2/23 with this silly stat?

Omaha Beach and War of Will both won at 9F or more.

21 races is not nearly enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions, and neither is 23 races.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

ubercapper wrote in the Louisiana PPs thread, " . . . per a STATS Race Lens query I ran, sire War Front's sons and daughters are 0 for 20 the last five years at distances of nine to ten furlongs on dirt." With War of Will coming in seventh in the Derby, looks like the percentages hold and will now be extended to 0/21.

It'll be interesting to see how War Of Will performs in the 9.5f furlong Preakness . . .

Well, that quote aged poorly!

I guess I wised up, or more likely I put that out of my mind when handicapping the Preakness based on his Derby run because he proved, to me at least, to be capable of winning the Preakness.

I made War of Will one of just three win contenders, along with Warrior's Charge and Owendale. He was third on the list with fair odds of 4/1 (on my Amwager Blog).

Here's a link to the Equibase Weekly Feature Race article which was published last Thursday http://www.equibase.com/content/anal...reanalysis.cfm

If you choose not to read my long paragraph on why he was a win contender, which I totally understand, my thinking was as he had rebounded from the Louisiana Derby to run a lot better in the Kentucky Derby, re-engaging with Maximum Security after the incident before tiring, and because in spite of fighting the jockey in a few of his races, when he was asked he responded (whereas many horses take their toys and go home).

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Well, that quote aged poorly!

I guess I wised up, or more likely I put that out of my mind when handicapping the Preakness based on his Derby run because he proved, to me at least, to be capable of winning the Preakness.

I made War of Will one of just three win contenders, along with Warrior's Charge and Owendale. He was third on the list with fair odds of 4/1 (on my Amwager Blog).

Here's a link to the Equibase Weekly Feature Race article which was published last Thursday http://www.equibase.com/content/anal...reanalysis.cfm

If you choose not to read my long paragraph on why he was a win contender, which I totally understand, my thinking was as he had rebounded from the Louisiana Derby to run a lot better in the Kentucky Derby, re-engaging with Maximum Security after the incident before tiring, and because in spite of fighting the jockey in a few of his races, when he was asked he responded (whereas many horses take their toys and go home).

That's another point about breeding. I learned it way back with Creme Fraiche. Creme Fraiche had a whole bunch of sprint breeding. He was also one of the most effective horses at 1 1/2 miles I have ever seen. And once he established he could do it, who cares about whether his breeding says he is "supposed to"?

[delsully]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Well, that quote aged poorly!

I guess I wised up, or more likely I put that out of my mind when handicapping the Preakness based on his Derby run because he proved, to me at least, to be capable of winning the Preakness.

I made War of Will one of just three win contenders, along with Warrior's Charge and Owendale. He was third on the list with fair odds of 4/1 (on my Amwager Blog).

Here's a link to the Equibase Weekly Feature Race article which was published last Thursday http://www.equibase.com/content/anal...reanalysis.cfm

If you choose not to read my long paragraph on why he was a win contender, which I totally understand, my thinking was as he had rebounded from the Louisiana Derby to run a lot better in the Kentucky Derby, re-engaging with Maximum Security after the incident before tiring, and because in spite of fighting the jockey in a few of his races, when he was asked he responded (whereas many horses take their toys and go home).

He looked like a short horse in the derby after not having a meaningful race since mid-February. He needed the derby and frankly, if you looked at the Preakness field, there wasn’t much to be afraid of either. He rated nicely and Gaff didn’t get impatient (unlike the derby), and he had the perfect trip.

I sure hope he runs in the Belmont because he’s going to take a lot of money. I’m definitely jumping off the bandwagon if he does.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by delsully

He looked like a short horse in the derby after not having a meaningful race since mid-February. He needed the derby and frankly, if you looked at the Preakness field, there wasn’t much to be afraid of either. He rated nicely and Gaff didn’t get impatient (unlike the derby), and he had the perfect trip.

I sure hope he runs in the Belmont because he’s going to take a lot of money. I’m definitely jumping off the bandwagon if he does.

Do so at your peril. The horse has a perfect style for.the Belmont.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Do so at your peril. The horse has a perfect style for.the Belmont.

I’m not saying he can’t win, I just prefer others. Especially when he goes off as the favorite.

[Blenheim]

ubercapper
I made War of Will one of just three win contenders, along with Warrior's Charge and Owendale. He was third on the list with fair odds of 4/1 (on my Amwager Blog).

In the Equibase article, Mr. Starr (ubercapper) wrote, "With that in mind, Warrior’s Charge is the horse I give slight preference to among three who I feel have the largest probability to win this year’s Preakness." He wrote, "If the scenario whereby Warrior’s Charge doesn’t lead from start to finish, by virtue of getting into an early battle with another horse, Brad Cox has Owendale to charge home and win."

I did not find a similar sentence regarding War Of Will. In addition, Mr. Starr failed to mention his Keeneland Select Preakness article wherein he did not have War of Will as one of his win bets.

delsully
He looked like a short horse in the derby after not having a meaningful race since mid-February. He needed the derby and frankly, if you looked at the Preakness field, there wasn’t much to be afraid of either. He rated nicely and Gaff didn’t get impatient (unlike the derby), and he had the perfect trip.

I sure hope he runs in the Belmont because he’s going to take a lot of money. I’m definitely jumping off the bandwagon if he does.

Still kinda' early yet . . . not many of these swifty types are bred to go 12 furlongs. The colt was just galloping down the backstretch . . . and what I found compelling and tell-tale is at the three-sixteenths pole he showed us a turn of foot late . . . don't often see a late turn of foot w/these swifty types.

GMB@BP
So now what is that 2/23 with this silly stat? Omaha Beach and War of Will both won at 9F or more. 21 races is not nearly enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions, and neither is 23 races.

ubercapper
I guess I wised up, or more likely I put that out of my mind when handicapping the Preakness based on his Derby run because he proved, to me at least, to be capable of winning the Preakness.

From what I've read, Omaha Beach ain't healed up yet and is headed back to So Cal soon. That leaves us w/one War Front colt against the percentages; as I've written and the Preakness proves, this War Front colt appears to have inherited stamina from Solid Chef-de-Race Sadler's Wells.

He possesses (4) points in the Solid category (most in this field), getting those points from Sadler’s Wells, as a broodmare sire his 2014 AWD is an impressive 9.55f. Is Sadler’s Wells transmitting stamina into this speedy War Front type? In addition, there is a statistical relationship between DP points and distance, classic points and distance and CD and distance.

I won't be forgettin' that one anytime soon; I appreciate the lesson.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

In the Equibase article, Mr. Starr (ubercapper) wrote, "With that in mind, Warrior’s Charge is the horse I give slight preference to among three who I feel have the largest probability to win this year’s Preakness." He wrote, "If the scenario whereby Warrior’s Charge doesn’t lead from start to finish, by virtue of getting into an early battle with another horse, Brad Cox has Owendale to charge home and win."

I did not find a similar sentence regarding War Of Will. In addition, Mr. Starr failed to mention his Keeneland Select Preakness article wherein he did not have War of Will as one of his win bets.

You're correct War of Will wasn't mentioned as win bet although he was one of three win contenders. He was clearly listed as a win contender and was one of three horses I suggested to key on top in the exacta which just missed when Owendale failed to get up for second. He wasn't listed as a potential overlay win bet because he offered less value for win bets than Warrior's Charge or Owendale and I rarely recommend dutching three horses to win.



Regarding not finding a sentence about War of Will similar to the one about Warrior's Charge, I will take issue with that because the very last sentence in the paragraph about War of Will read "War of Will

certainly must be considered a contender to run well enough to contend in this race."