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Old 07-11-2017, 08:19 PM   #1
Panamaslim94
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Saratoga 2017

Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks
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Old 07-11-2017, 10:51 PM   #2
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I've been having my ass handed to me for the last few months, so take what I say w/a grain of salt. I usually find that there are only a few races worth betting on a card, but I will find myself making 'action' bets due to boredom that reduces my bankroll.
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Old 07-11-2017, 11:24 PM   #3
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I recommend learning pace handicapping (Tom Brohamer). You can find some decent success just by learning how to see the "shape" of the race without calculating a single number.
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Old 07-11-2017, 11:42 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Panamaslim94 View Post
Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks
Question, how often do you play, and when you do play how much time can you invest?

Do you have any types of bets you rather play, win betting or exotics betting?
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Old 07-12-2017, 01:18 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by HandiTrack View Post
I recommend learning pace handicapping (Tom Brohamer). You can find some decent success just by learning how to see the "shape" of the race without calculating a single number.
How do you apply Brohamer's methods, without calculating a single number?
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Old 07-12-2017, 02:36 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panamaslim94 View Post
Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks
What past performances do you use? Like Afleet stated I too am an action player. Can probably find a couple of horses I really like on the card, but when playing a meet like the Spa or Del Mar find myself playing every race.

Horse racing is a real tough game to bet imo. The high rake is one factor, and all the choices one has to make factors in greatly as well. Would also recommend using pace figures to handicap a race. Most players can not be professionals so maybe lower your roll and have some fun. Good luck.
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Old 07-12-2017, 07:51 AM   #7
BELMONT 6-6-09
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panamaslim94 View Post
Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks
Saratoga, the greatest race meeting in North America has everything a horseplayer would want, full fields, better horses , the best trainers, the best jockeys the best attendance at a beautiful track.

That being said BEWARE!! This meeting will test the discipline of even the most disciplined players, myself included. I find that I force more wagers at this meeting then any other. Every year I must work at monitoring my wagers to avoid playing the fringe selections that ruin the bottom line.

The things you should do for this meeting is QUALITY not quantity. Be very selective of your key plays and be certain you never make a bad percentage play, this is crucial. Your selection must possess value and a significant edge that can be validated so you end up in a scenario after the race that even if the bet was a losing one you would make the same bet again because it was a percentage advantage situation worth an investment of risk capital

No guesses, hunches or maybe's at this meeting. Yes it is tempting to get involved with these types of tease bets, but the game is too hard and you must avoid the fringe wagers and concentrate on your strengths, whatever they might be.

Myself, I am a win bettor with the occasional double or exacta box for the purpose of increasing the wagers R.O.I. and not to save a bet, to me that can involve in negative handicapping. You wager to win, not wager to not lose. this is how I think though I am sure smart players have found way and methods to protect their wagers.

Remember this winning money is not very hard, it's holding on to the winnings that is terribly difficult for the majority of players. Keep your bets at the same level for the most part meaning the same amount at 10/1 as opposed to 3/1. Be very aware of the lure of the exotics as you begin to see the massive payoffs through out the meeting. If you are going to get involved with these P4 P5 superfectas etc, keep the investment risk very low simply because these are low percentage transactions
worthy of making a huge score when you have a very solid key horse or two in the sequence so the percentages favor the investment.

Be wary of playing Saratoga on off tracks as it is a variable that changes the structures of the races and offers more freakish results thorough out the years. if you do get involved be very selective and, as always insist of top value.

Saratoga is a beautiful meeting to enjoy by betting smart and sticking to the percentages. I would suggest keeping a book of 'Whys', what I like to call a truth log. it is a book that you have to write down all wagers and the reasons you made the bet. it will prevent you from making chance, guesses, hunches or maybe's. it works.

Maintain a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses, this is very important as you must keep your focus on playing the best game you can play. Above all have fun and enjoy the meeting it will be fun and hopefully profitable for you if you make a plan ahead and stick to your plan to the exclusion of all else.

Good Luck!!

Last edited by BELMONT 6-6-09; 07-12-2017 at 07:53 AM.
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Old 07-12-2017, 11:17 AM   #8
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How do you apply Brohamer's methods, without calculating a single number?
Ok, you can do parts of Brohamer's method (and I probably shouldn't be giving him all the credit for it because it's definitely not anything he invented, but I was introduced to it in his book so in my brain I'll forever associate it with him) without calculating. You can look at running lines and identify who are the front runners (E) and the closers (S) and the just off the pace runners (P), and you can find pace scenarios where there are a bunch of S horses and only one E, or a several E horses and only one P or S. It's not going to always fit that easily, and of course you can get way more in-depth and calculate fps and turn times and all that (and I do, I have a python program to do that for me), but when I'm in a hurry, like I just got in the grandstand with 6 minutes to post and nothing handicapped, I just assign everyone a letter and see if something fits. I wouldn't base my whole betting methodology on only that, but if you don't want to calculate I've had success just approaching it that way.

Last edited by HandiTrack; 07-12-2017 at 11:18 AM.
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Old 07-12-2017, 11:56 AM   #9
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Brohamer's method was an exposition of the early Sartin Methodology. If you don't mind pushing a button on the modern day Sartin Methodology software RDSS, you can get a pretty good read on the main, real players in most races, including those not ranked highly on Morning Line or other mainstream analyses. You still have to form good bets, and stay away from bad bets. It's a bit of work to get oriented, and even more work to delve deeper, but that's the 'barrier' to maintaining mutuels, such as they are ...

You could also drop by our annual PaceandCap.com meeting in the Red Festival Tent, August 18 - 20. Always a pleasure to meet fans at the Spa!

Enjoy the upcoming festivities!

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Old 07-12-2017, 12:27 PM   #10
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Saratoga could be easiest meet of them all. Just bet Chad Brown and Jose and Irad Ortiz and you are guaranteed to finish way ahead of the pack.

Double down when Irad or Jose are riding for Chad. Oh and pay attention to late money, that's guarantees a slam dunk. When you see that Baffert is entering a horse, triple down your bet.

Don't forget Chad Brown and bet all horses that Irad is on....
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Old 07-12-2017, 01:57 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Panamaslim94 View Post
Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks
Along with your regular handicapping, dedicate the next month and a half to watching replays of the entrants on a Saratoga card. Other than the Chad Brown, Pletcher, Ortiz brothers angles this is a good way to dig out some prices. One previous awkward trip from a horse named Saharan, and a bet back on the same horse, made my whole 'toga meet profitable in the summer of '16.

Last edited by jahura2; 07-12-2017 at 02:00 PM.
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Old 07-12-2017, 03:01 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Panamaslim94 View Post
Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks
If you find that you always run out of cash before your Saratoga vacation ends...then, maybe you shouldn't "Love the Spa". IMO...the first thing the "longtime horseplayer" should realize is that his loyalty should primarily be to his WALLET...and not to some over-glamorized racing meet, whose racing menu may not match up favorably with the particular handicapping skills that he possesses. Saratoga is an abbreviated meet, with many races for inexperienced horses...and many grass races. And the shippers from all over the country present their own unique difficulties...in an already difficult game. How you deal with these handicapping conditions will determine how long your bankroll will last at that place.

Here is the most "wisdom" that I am capable of:

Forget what people say about what track is "best", and what track is "worst". All of us here have our own particular peculiarities...and we follow different "systems and methods". Get to know yourself as a player, and find out what types of races your particular skill-set is best suited for. And then find a track that offers a preponderance of these types of races. The entire country is eagerly anticipating the Saratoga meet, even though the eventual betting results there are invariably negative...for all but the very few. To be honest...I can't see what this Saratoga "euphoria" is all about.

It seems to me that a great number of horseplayers out there are using the Saratoga meet as some sort of "test" of their handicapping prowess...and their "value" as players. "If they can make it there, they can make it ANYWHERE"...that sort of thing. I just like to keep reminding myself that the money is just as green anywhere else.
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Last edited by thaskalos; 07-12-2017 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 07-12-2017, 03:45 PM   #13
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Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing????
I'm going to give you a little "info" that you should watch.

The jockey agent for Rajiv Maragh and Hector Diaz Jr is Tony Micallef....

I would start following the mounts of these 2 riders at Saratoga, specifically who the trainers and owners are. Could pay big dividends, as Tony has been really working it for the past month....Different twists, get different results...Good luck Slim, you never know $$$
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Old 07-12-2017, 04:27 PM   #14
BELMONT 6-6-09
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If you find that you always run out of cash before your Saratoga vacation ends...then, maybe you shouldn't "Love the Spa". IMO...the first thing the "longtime horseplayer" should realize is that his loyalty should primarily be to his WALLET...and not to some over-glamorized racing meet, whose racing menu may not match up favorably with the particular handicapping skills that he possesses. Saratoga is an abbreviated meet, with many races for inexperienced horses...and many grass races. And the shippers from all over the country present their own unique difficulties...in an already difficult game. How you deal with these handicapping conditions will determine how long your bankroll will last at that place.

Here is the most "wisdom" that I am capable of:

Forget what people say about what track is "best", and what track is "worst". All of us here have our own particular peculiarities...and we follow different "systems and methods". Get to know yourself as a player, and find out what types of races your particular skill-set is best suited for. And then find a track that offers a preponderance of these types of races. The entire country is eagerly anticipating the Saratoga meet, even though the eventual betting results there are invariably negative...for all but the very few. To be honest...I can't see what this Saratoga "euphoria" is all about.

It seems to me that a great number of horseplayers out there are using the Saratoga meet as some sort of "test" of their handicapping prowess...and their "value" as players. "If they can make it there, they can make it ANYWHERE"...that sort of thing. I just like to keep reminding myself that the money is just as green anywhere else.
Sound advice Thask! He should treat Saratoga with the same respect of every other track by singling out the best percentage plays day in and day out. like they say a $12 winning ticket at Delaware is better then a $6 payout at the Spa.
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Old 07-12-2017, 06:17 PM   #15
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I think it is worthwhile to pay attention to pay attention to a couple of things. First, note which trips are winning on the dirt. As long as I've been going there, the track does develop inside/outside and speed/closer tendencies at certain times. Second, on the turf note where the rail is set, especially on the inner turf where the turns are a little sharper anyway. There will be races where horses will get disadvantageous or advantageous trips because of where the rail is set and that is good information to have when handicapping subsequent races.

I don't know if somebody mentioned it already, but the Pletcher/Velasquez combo on debuting two year olds has a high percentage of wins, although rarely at a price. Statistically Pletcher always has better dirt than turf statistics at Saratoga because of his debuting two year olds.

Chad Brown is particularly strong with debuting juvenile fillies on the turf.

One other point. When a trainer gets hot, you can get some really good prices on horses that don't necessarily look great on paper. A couple of years ago I remember everything Juimmy Jerkens put on the track was going to give you a live run.
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