Andy Serling's Kentucky Derby Preview

[Robert Fischer]

Congrats to Mr. Andy Serling on a winning Kentucky pick.


I don't know the tickets he played or contributed to (and I didn't even memorize all of the sequences, as I wasn't in some of the Derby-Oaks day $2min p6 etc., pools...) but Andy had some strong, accurate opinions on value. His opinions on most of the sequence were correct, and the racing luck on most of the sequence were with him.

Had to be a reasonably satisfying day.


If you try to play along, all you can really do is try to teach yourself, and learn from what is out there. Most of us have done some reading, and discussed theories in places such as Pace Advantage, and handicapped along with some of the experts.

Serling is a guy who I may describe as that he handicaps primarily with 'absolutes' while shunning abstract gut feelings or irrational emotions or eye-tests.

Especially on the biggest days, it isn't always natural and easy to downgrade or dismiss horses that everyone loves.

I have a kitten named "Charlie". I threw $2WPS on HOT ROD CHARLIE. I think everyone else has a cat/dog/relative/friend named "Charlie" as well. He was about a third of his fair odds!

This weekend (so far, we've still got more racing!) was very rewarding to Andy's approach. The cream rose to the top. While there was chaos, there wasn't a bunch of random ridiculous chaos in the heart of the major races.

I don't even remember Andy's full rundown, but we had in the Derby for starters; Essential Quality who was a valid contender, but whose 'form' and prestige (Juv) inflated him to a standout favorite. That alone was enough to be in a position to 'win' the weekend.

There were several other horses, especially memorable/significant in the Derby, and the Turf Classic where Andy had an accurate understanding.

This is a tough game. It's somewhat tough to find value. In the short-term, value isn't even always rewarding.

[classhandicapper]

I could go on and on...but I trust you get the point. You seem to lack conviction, and you are only capable of a VAGUE handicapping analysis pre-race.

Public handicappers get PAID to put themselves in the unfortunate position of making selections often days before they have all the relevant information.

I don't envy that job.

All day yesterday I was still debating multiple handicapping issues, watching races develop during the day, and most importantly looking at the prices. Then I either pulled the trigger or didn't minutes before post time.

See the difference?

I'm not making selections. I'm playing horses.

You asked me a direct question about Medina Spirit at 12-1.

I gave you a direct answer. He'll be on my tickets at 12-1. At that point you pretty much knew as much as I did. I didn't know what those tickets were going to be yet either except that I'd also likely have something on Keepmeinmind at a big price. Depending on the late odds of other horses I might have done one of 3-4 different things. I might not have used Essential Quality at all if he was 9/5 and I might have keyed him heavily with Medina Spirit if he was 4-1 etc....

Get it?

I can give you insights into my thinking on a bias, race setup, which horses I'm interested in etc.. but I can't give you selections or bets unless you have a live feed into my office. Selections is not what I am doing.

What's very fair is to ask me to never publicly celebrate a win even if I tell you I'll be using a certain horse unless I've laid out all the details beforehand. That much I can do. I won't discuss bets anymore, not even all the losers I talk about.

[classhandicapper]

Vague as vague can be! Neither one of these vague comments could be considered adequate proof that you were preparing for a win or an exacta bet on these horses in their next start. Only after the vague analysis proves correct do you regale us with the details of your profitable maneuver.

In case you missed it, Defunded finished 4th. I lost the win bet on him. The exacta box with Jackie's Warrior obviously blew out also. Not so profitable.

But again, had you read my insights into Jackie's Warrior you would have known I had a good reason to toss his last race even if neither of us knew I was going to make a bet using him at the time.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You asked me a direct question about Medina Spirit at 12-1.

I gave you a direct answer. He'll be on my tickets at 12-1.

You can't be direct even when you try. What does "He'll be on my tickets at 12-1" even mean? Is it the same as saying that you are betting the horse to win?

And after the race, you came back and told Andy that you "both liked the same horse"...even though he was the only one who labeled this horse as the most likely winner. "Of course I said that I was betting the horse, I never mentioned any other horse", you said...after having already mentioned in the same thread that the would be "one of several horses that you'd be using".

Vague...vague...and more vague. Never a direct reply, even when you TRY to be "direct". It just isn't in you.

[jim michalak]

after the race joel rosario said rock your world lost a shoe at the beginning of the race and lost all chance making it even easier for medina spirit to gain his front running score.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Public handicappers get PAID to put themselves in the unfortunate position of making selections often days before they have all the relevant information.

Andy and I have gotten into many disagreements here...and some of our arguments have gotten pretty nasty. During the Zenyatta years, he and I would get into arguments here every day...and I never even knew what the man really did at his job. The OTB that I frequented always had the sound off...and I also always keep the volume off when I bet on the races from home. I knew that Serling was the track handicapper for NYRA...but I had never heard any of his handicapping segments.

And then one of the posters here submitted the link of some sort of podcast where Andy was supposed to talk about some upcoming marquee race. Out of curiosity I clicked on the link...and heard this man at work for the very first time. He talked about the upcoming race for about 10 minutes, I think...and then he started fielding questions from an apparently live audience. I was transfixed...and listened to the whole podcast. The audience questions were coming from all sides, and they covered all aspects of the racing game...but Serling was UNFLAPPABLE! His knowledge of this game seemed INEXHAUSTIBLE...and his delivery was always PERFECT. This was no mere "public handicapper"...this was a true "MASTER at work". Beyer would say that this was "a man at one with the universe". He was doing what he obviously loved to do, and he was GREAT at it...a mighty rare sight indeed.

And then it hit me. WHO CARES if Serling argues with me or not? Even if the man never agreed with me again...he remained a Master of his chosen craft...and he was a true inspiration to the rest of us, who were trying to "master" own little corners of the universe. Listen again to the segment at the very top of this thread...there is no stopping this man. The words flow naturally...and they are always on point. Even a humorous slip of the tongue is effortlessly turned into an advantage without even a moment's hesitation. This is just a "public handicapper"?

If a new and thorny NYRA issue should pop up again, Serling and I will probably rekindle our old arguments again...but it won't matter in the least. The man is the very BEST at what he does, and he continues to be an inspiration to me...because I too try to be the "best" at what I do. I tell myself that, who knows...one day I just may succeed...just as he has. In the meantime...what more can I say than to simply assert that, IMO, Andy Serling is the Number 1 horse racing personality working in the game today. And the game suffers greatly due to the lack of more people like him. RESPECT!

[Blenheim]

Congratulations little big man, nice pick.

Nothin' like pickin' the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

Lookin' forward to your Preakness and Belmont Stakes previews, should be interesting.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You can't be direct even when you try. What does "He'll be on my tickets at 12-1" even mean? Is it the same as saying that you are betting the horse to win?

Do you even read my posts or am I totally wasting my time?

"On my tickets" means I am going to bet him if he's 12-1. However, as I just explained, I hadn't decided how to structure the bet yet because I didn't know all the odds yet. That's the decisive information. I made the decision just minutes before the race (as it should be).

I'll make it easier for you.

If I say something about a bias, race flow, figure disagreement, trip etc.. or mention a horse I'm very interested in the future and you respect my opinion, take that information and use it as you see fit. That's why I post it.

If you don't respect my opinion or disagree with me ignore it. That's fine too.

I'm not here to tout horses or prove anything. You can forget that. I work my ass off and already know my results.

If you and others find it problematical that I can't lay out specific bets because I don't decide how or if I'm going to wager until the final minutes, that's understandable. I won't mention any winners or losers anymore. I'll celebrate my winners and laugh at my mistakes privately even when I think it's pretty clear I'm betting.

If you want selections, there are people getting paid to do that and some fine podcasts also. I'd recommend CJ and David Aragona. They are always good for a few tidbits I can add to my own information and decide privately how and if I want to use it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by jim michalak

after the race joel rosario said rock your world lost a shoe at the beginning of the race and lost all chance making it even easier for medina spirit to gain his front running score.

Essential Quality also had a tough start and some significant ground loss. That race (especially the start) has to be reviewed carefully.

[Zaf]

Great Pick Andy

Z

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Do you even read my posts or am I totally wasting my time?

"On my tickets" means I am going to bet him if he's 12-1. However, as I just explained, I hadn't decided how to structure the bet yet because I didn't know all the odds yet. That's the decisive information. I made the decision just minutes before the race (as it should be).

I'll make it easier for you.

If I say something about a bias, race flow, figure disagreement, trip etc.. or mention a horse I'm very interested in the future and you respect my opinion, take that information and use it as you see fit. That's why I post it.

If you don't respect my opinion or disagree with me ignore it. That's fine too.

I'm not here to tout horses or prove anything. You can forget that. I work my ass off and already know my results.

If you and others find it problematical that I can't lay out specific bets because I don't decide how or if I'm going to wager until the final minutes, that's understandable. I won't mention any winners or losers anymore. I'll celebrate my winners and laugh at my mistakes privately even when I think it's pretty clear I'm betting.

If you want selections, there are people getting paid to do that and some fine podcasts also. I'd recommend CJ and David Aragona. They are always good for a few tidbits I can add to my own information and decide privately how and if I want to use it.

I don't want anything...nor should you change your way of doing things just for my sake. It just seemed odd to me when you told Andy that "it was a pleasure to know that even when we both like the same horse, it wasn't too much weight". And this because Andy's handicapping opinion was clear and focused, whereas yours was vague and somewhat scattered. But in any case...no harm was done, and you are welcomed to continue here in the posting style that you are most comfortable. Carry on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Andy and I have gotten into many disagreements here...and some of our arguments have gotten pretty nasty. During the Zenyatta years, he and I would get into arguments here every day...and I never even knew what the man really did at his job. The OTB that I frequented always had the sound off...and I also always keep the volume off when I bet on the races from home. I knew that Serling was the track handicapper for NYRA...but I had never heard any of his handicapping segments.

And then one of the posters here submitted the link of some sort of podcast where Andy was supposed to talk about some upcoming marquee race. Out of curiosity I clicked on the link...and heard this man at work for the very first time. He talked about the upcoming race for about 10 minutes, I think...and then he started fielding questions from an apparently live audience. I was transfixed...and listened to the whole podcast. The audience questions were coming from all sides, and they covered all aspects of the racing game...but Serling was UNFLAPPABLE! His knowledge of this game seemed INEXHAUSTIBLE...and his delivery was always PERFECT. This was no mere "public handicapper"...this was a true "MASTER at work". Beyer would say that this was "a man at one with the universe". He was doing what he obviously loved to do, and he was GREAT at it...a mighty rare sight indeed.

And then it hit me. WHO CARES if Serling argues with me or not? Even if the man never agreed with me again...he remained a Master of his chosen craft...and he was a true inspiration to the rest of us, who were trying to "master" own little corners of the universe. Listen again to the segment at the very top of this thread...there is no stopping this man. The words flow naturally...and they are always on point. Even a humorous slip of the tongue is effortlessly turned into an advantage without even a moment's hesitation. This is just a "public handicapper"?

If a new and thorny NYRA issue should pop up again, Serling and I will probably rekindle our old arguments again...but it won't matter in the least. The man is the very BEST at what he does, and he continues to be an inspiration to me...because I too try to be the "best" at what I do. I tell myself that, who knows...one day I just may succeed...just as he has. In the meantime...what more can I say than to simply assert that, IMO, Andy Serling is the Number 1 horse racing personality working in the game today. And the game suffers greatly due to the lack of more people like him. RESPECT!

You said it much better than I ever could...and I agree 100%

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Andy and I have gotten into many disagreements here...and some of our arguments have gotten pretty nasty. During the Zenyatta years, he and I would get into arguments here every day...and I never even knew what the man really did at his job. The OTB that I frequented always had the sound off...and I also always keep the volume off when I bet on the races from home. I knew that Serling was the track handicapper for NYRA...but I had never heard any of his handicapping segments.

And then one of the posters here submitted the link of some sort of podcast where Andy was supposed to talk about some upcoming marquee race. Out of curiosity I clicked on the link...and heard this man at work for the very first time. He talked about the upcoming race for about 10 minutes, I think...and then he started fielding questions from an apparently live audience. I was transfixed...and listened to the whole podcast. The audience questions were coming from all sides, and they covered all aspects of the racing game...but Serling was UNFLAPPABLE! His knowledge of this game seemed INEXHAUSTIBLE...and his delivery was always PERFECT. This was no mere "public handicapper"...this was a true "MASTER at work". Beyer would say that this was "a man at one with the universe". He was doing what he obviously loved to do, and he was GREAT at it...a mighty rare sight indeed.

And then it hit me. WHO CARES if Serling argues with me or not? Even if the man never agreed with me again...he remained a Master of his chosen craft...and he was a true inspiration to the rest of us, who were trying to "master" own little corners of the universe. Listen again to the segment at the very top of this thread...there is no stopping this man. The words flow naturally...and they are always on point. Even a humorous slip of the tongue is effortlessly turned into an advantage without even a moment's hesitation. This is just a "public handicapper"?

If a new and thorny NYRA issue should pop up again, Serling and I will probably rekindle our old arguments again...but it won't matter in the least. The man is the very BEST at what he does, and he continues to be an inspiration to me...because I too try to be the "best" at what I do. I tell myself that, who knows...one day I just may succeed...just as he has. In the meantime...what more can I say than to simply assert that, IMO, Andy Serling is the Number 1 horse racing personality working in the game today. And the game suffers greatly due to the lack of more people like him. RESPECT!

Well said........

I’ve spent a grand total of 20 min with Andy in two 10 min visits while visiting NY tracks. He treated me like an old friend.

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Well said........

I’ve spent a grand total of 20 min with Andy in two 10 min visits while visiting NY tracks. He treated me like an old friend.

Me too Saratoga twice.

Z

[Parkview_Pirate]

I thought Andy's preview was great, though he didn't talk me on to Medina Spirit or off of Mandaloun (who I bet). But it really helped me clarify the picture of the race, based on the video and comments on those last race trips.

Anthony Stabile put out a short preview video as well through the VegasInsider website, and picked the Mandaloun on top.

Someday I hope to get past my anti-Baffert attitude, and maybe catch a gimmick in the Derby again.