Andy Serling's Kentucky Derby Preview

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When you said..."he'll be on my ticket with a few others"...did that include the 7-horse?

I played win and exactas.

I bet Medina Spirit as my primary win bet and used him with Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, and Keep Me In Mind (mentioned in another thread). I had a tiny win bet on Keepmeinmind. I cashed the win bet on Medina Spirit and made a nice profit on the race, but no exacta.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydRQm60FOPI

Interesting preview.

He does good work and is entertaining.

A job well done, Mr. Serling!!

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Just a minute now. Andy said that he is picking the to win...while you said that this horse would be "one of several that you would be using". Plus...you said that you were less than enthusiastic about the horse's prospects...due to that "crowded room". To say that "you and Andy both liked the same horse" is a bit of a stretch...IMO.

He’s a complete jackass. A few days ago he was taking wildly idiotic cheap shots at me on Twitter to try to curry favor to some other creep. It’s laughable. He’s a post race handicapper. I’ll give him credit, its a great way to pick winners.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A job well done, Mr. Serling!!

Thanks, much appreciated. Baffert also trained my last Derby winner, Silver Charm:-)

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Happy for you guys. It continues to amaze me how often this guy is loose in these races. It's a meme at this point.

It's bordering on insane at this point.

When you have the best horse in the race like Baffert often does you obviously want to go to the lead because it's an advantage. Others won't necessary want to engage a superior horse, but if you are going to allow him to have the lead with a horse like this you are basically giving races away to him.

It's absurd.

This was a horse that some people thought was (or might have been) disadvantaged by a good rail and speed track on SA day relative to Rock Your World. That was the "potential" value. If you told those same people the other riders were going to allow him to have the lead in an honest pace most would have bet a lot more. Baffert has to be laughing.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Thanks, much appreciated. Baffert also trained my last Derby winner, Silver Charm:-)

Classhandicapper could use some of your modesty, IMO.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

He’s a complete jackass. A few days ago he was taking wildly idiotic cheap shots at me on Twitter to try to curry favor to some other creep. It’s laughable. He’s a post race handicapper. I’ll give him credit, its a great way to pick winners.

What comes around goes around.

You've been taking shots at me here for years. You even took at shot at me at DRF years ago via an email to a manager there when I was an employee. That's what I was told by my manger at the time. That was something that could have impacted my job! Fortunately he just laughed at you. And you call me a jackass? What does that make you?

I don't know the person you are calling a "creep", but I agree with him on the correct way to bet.

I probably made about 20 posts about the Derby over the last several weeks. I mentioned a potential bias on SA Derby day soon after the race. All of my posts except one were about Medina Spirit and/or that track. Same thing on Twitter. The only other horse I ever mentioned was KeepmeinMind (who I also bet).

Exactly who do you think I bet when I said I was definitely using him at 12-1 and haven't talked about anyone else for weeks.

You get paid to post exact picks.

I get paid nothing. I offer insights into my thinking for free. I have no problem talking about my losers (and often do) and then take grief when I cash.

I also played Defunded off that track (mentioned in another thread as being wide that day) and used him in an exacta box with Jackie's Warrior. If you search far enough back you'll even find a few posts about why I thought Jackie's Warrior's last race was a toss and he was going to run a lot better next time. But you were too busy taking shots at me in that thread also and probably didn't notice that either.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Classhandicapper could use some of your modesty, IMO.

Modestly is not a problem. This game keeps everyone humble. What I need is to avoid social media and stop trying to provide insights that may help others while learning from the people who may know things I don't. When I'm wrong and lose I get aggravated privately and when I win and have a small public display of happiness I get grief publicly by people that don't like me and are probably rooting against me. So what exactly is my upside?

[ctownraces@bp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

What comes around goes around.

You've been taking shots at me here for years. You even took at shot at me at DRF years ago via an email to a manager there when I was an employee. That's what I was told by my manger at the time. That was something that could have impacted my job! Fortunately he just laughed at you. And you call me a jackass? What does that make you?

I don't know the person you are calling a "creep", but I agree with him on the correct way to bet.

I probably made about 20 posts about the Derby over the last several weeks. I mentioned a potential bias on SA Derby day soon after the race. All of my posts except one were about Medina Spirit and/or that track. Same thing on Twitter. The only other horse I ever mentioned was KeepmeinMind (who I also bet).

Exactly who do you think I bet when I said I was definitely using him at 12-1 and haven't talked about anyone else for weeks.

You get paid to post exact picks.

I get paid nothing. I offer insights into my thinking for free. I have no problem talking about my losers (and often do) and then take grief when I cash.

I also played Defunded off that track (mentioned in another thread as being wide that day) and used him in an exacta box with Jackie's Warrior. If you search far enough back you'll even find a few posts about why I thought Jackie's Warrior's last race was a toss and he was going to run a lot better next time. But you were too busy taking shots at me in that thread also and probably didn't notice that either.

You just take little mans post to personal. He always comes across wrong. He has little man syndrome but he lets us know by his member name here. Take him with a grain of salt he is very entertaining if you do.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ctownraces@bp

You just take little mans post to personal. He always comes across wrong. He has little man syndrome but he lets us know by his member name here. Take him with a grain of salt he is very entertaining if you do.

The funniest thing about this post is that I'm shorter than Andy.

That should be my biggest problem in life.

I can take a shot in jest from time to time, but with me it is obviously personal.

Whether he recalls it or not, years ago he sent an email to a manager at DRF mentioning some posts I made about Formulator while I was an employee there. It was forwarded to my department head who then called me into his office to discuss it. When I showed him the relevant thread and posts at Paceadvantage, he laughed and asked me to please continue. It was a non event so I let it go, but that was way out of line and very personal. There is no love lost.

If I'm a jackass for agreeing with someone that criticized his betting strategy on a sequence so be it. He's too stubborn to realize he's wrong, but I can do better even at this age. I'll still take that over sending an email to someone's job that could have potentially got them in trouble.

[PaceAdvantage]

Man, you haters get so pissed when Andy scores out...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Modestly is not a problem. This game keeps everyone humble. What I need is to avoid social media and stop trying to provide insights that may help others while learning from the people who may know things I don't. When I'm wrong and lose I get aggravated privately and when I win and have a small public display of happiness I get grief publicly by people that don't like me and are probably rooting against me. So what exactly is my upside?

You have often been outspoken at the off-topics, and your stubbornness there has often infuriated me, so...I'd like to take this opportunity to be blunt with you and ruffle YOUR feathers for once.

You like writing long posts in the handicapping forums...but your posts never lead to anything definitive. It's always "on the one hand this...and on the other hand that"...or "if, this...and but, that". Never have you concluded your "insights" here by reaching a nice and focused handicapping conclusion.

Take a look at your answer to my simple and direct question in post #8 here. I asked you if the 12/1 odds on Medina Spirit would satisfy you. An intellectually honest person would answer either "Yes...I would bet on this horse to win at 12/1 odds"...or "No. The 12/1 odds would still be too short". But look how YOU chose to answer my question in your subsequent #9 post. You said that the horse "would definitely be on your tickets at 12/1"...but then, here came the "ifs" and the 'buts'. "What if the Mattress Man's huge bet created bigger overlays somewhere else?", you asked...which not only creates confusion about whether or not you would bet Medina Spirit to win at 12/1 odds...but the suspicion is also raised that you might end up betting on some entirely different HORSE. Why couldn't you just come out and say that the 12/1 price would qualify Medina Spirit for a win-bet from you?

Now, compare your "insights" with those of Andy Serling at the very top of this thread. Not only did Andy give us a very nice synopsis of the contending horses in the race...but he concluded his segment with the bold prediction that he liked Medina Spirit to win the race...something that you can never bring yourself to do. You shrugged Andy's definitive prediction off by insinuating that this is the sort of prognosis that he is "paid to make"...but I disagree. I think that Andy could have easily reduced his handicapping opinion down to 2 or 3 horses and still have satisfied the bosses who pay him. After all, this WAS a 19-horse field. But he had the intellectual honesty to go out on a limb in a race...which is something that seems to be beyond your abilities.

Still not convinced? Look at your post #22 here...where you attempt to recount for Andy the other "insightful" predictions that you have made here. You bet on Defunded, and also used him in an exacta box with Jackie's Warrior...you say. And you add that, if we search long enough, we'll see that you made a comment somewhere here that Defunded was "wide" in a prior start...and that Jackie's Warrior's last race was a "toss", and that the horse would run "a lot better next out". Vague as vague can be! Neither one of these vague comments could be considered adequate proof that you were preparing for a win or an exacta bet on these horses in their next start. Only after the vague analysis proves correct do you regale us with the details of your profitable maneuver.

I could go on and on...but I trust you get the point. You seem to lack conviction, and you are only capable of a VAGUE handicapping analysis pre-race. But...once the race is over...your handicapping insights become crystal-clear...and you have no problem coming up with a definitive handicapping conclusion. Better than nothing, I guess...but hardly the "insightful" analysis that you imagine it to be.

And, here endeth the sermon.

[PaceAdvantage]

[Suff]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Man, you haters get so pissed when Andy scores out...

Get on the Saratoga Serling Train, he's seeing them right🚀.

[lamboguy]

that's a great pick.