Andy Serling's Kentucky Derby Preview - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Blenheim · 04-30-2021, 01:24 PM

Interesting preview.

He does good work and is entertaining.

Serling says, " . . . in the Kentucky Derby, at least one or two horses, if not more, will take a step forward . . . ", but he doesn't mention such a step forward for his pick Medina Spirit. He does mention that step forward for a couple others . . . so I was not convinced that he is convinced that Medina Spirit will win.

Suff · 04-30-2021, 09:18 PM

He mentions my bet. Sainthood. 50-1 on the ticket.

I saw him beat a million dollar shadwell horse at GP. Andy knows better about his dirt feet. Me, at 50-1 , worthy. Cory Laneria no joke either.

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 11:26 AM

A lot of people I know are using Medina Spirit (myself included). Andy Beyer and David Aragona like him also.

1. If a lot of public handicappers like him, I wonder if he's going to wind up as long as everyone expects at the end?

2. If a lot of people are seeing the same things, you have to wonder how much value there really is in your insights.

He'll be one of several horses I'm using. But I'm less enthusiastic when I'm in a crowded room. I prefer when I have an insight that is not commonly known or my selection is the result of handicapping ideas that are shunned by mainstream thinking.

Tom · 05-01-2021, 12:17 PM

What I took away from his video was...."Bourbon Strong!"

That will last beyond the Derby!

thaskalos · 05-01-2021, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

A lot of people I know are using Medina Spirit (myself included). Andy Beyer and David Aragona like him also.

1. If a lot of public handicappers like him, I wonder if he's going to wind up as long as everyone expects at the end?

2. If a lot of people are seeing the same things, you have to wonder how much value there really is in your insights.

He'll be one of several horses I'm using. But I'm less enthusiastic when I'm in a crowded room. I prefer when I have an insight that is not commonly known or my selection is the result of handicapping ideas that are shunned by mainstream thinking.

I think we can safely assume that Medina Spirit is not embraced by "mainstream thinking". In this game, being in a "crowded room" is indeed suboptimal...but dying of loneliness is far less than ideal, as well.

Aerocraft67 · 05-01-2021, 12:25 PM

Might be the most puzzling thing I see, the Baffert horse with ample backing from public handicappers and thinly mudded form going off at 12-1 fifth choice? That's good enough for my second choice.

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think we can safely assume that Medina Spirit is not embraced by "mainstream thinking". In this game, being in a "crowded room" is indeed suboptimal...but dying of loneliness is far less than ideal, as well.

When I referred to mainstream thinking I wasn't talking about the general public. I was talking about informed handicappers doing a lot of work. I generally don't want to be in that room either if it's crowded. That's the room that's correcting the public odds and making them more efficient even if the horse is not the favorite. I prefer being in a totally different room or at least a less crowded room. But he'll be on my tickets with a few others.

thaskalos · 05-01-2021, 12:38 PM

If you like Medina Spirit...would 12/1 odds leave you "dissatisfied"?

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you like Medina Spirit...would 12/1 odds leave you "dissatisfied"?

He'll definitely be on my tickets at 12-1, but if he goes off that long, it will partly be because Mattress Mike is causing higher prices on everyone else too. So there are probably a few clear overlays to choose from. Some may be bigger.

For me, it's a tricky thing.

I'm not arrogant enough to think I can make an odds line that's even close to perfect. So I also like to have insights into a race or horse not shared by many others on the assumption that value will automatically be built into the price. If my insights are very shared, I'm less comfortable I actually have good value. Sometimes you have to concede you don't know anything that everyone else doesn't also know and maybe you shouldn't bet, unless Mattress Mike is involved. Then you can use a few of them

Blenheim · 05-01-2021, 02:51 PM

Interesting what Serling says about EQ. “ . . . his speed figures have not particularly improved throughout his career . . . he has not taken that step forward.”

Take a look at the figures for MS, step forward? He shows a 97 Sham, a paired-figure, then 98 Santa Anita. That 98 equals lowly Soup and Sandwich in the Florida. Which colt is likely to improve more SS or MS? I think MS is likely to revert back to the 93 or 94.

If MS wins, I’ll be gettin’ “bourbon strong” and “ripping up my tickets.”

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 03:23 PM

The biggest piece of info out of the Pat Day mile may be that Dream Shake ran huge. He was on the rail in the SA Derby. It's only one horse, but it's a bit of "evidence" that it wasn't a plus rail day. That makes the argument for Medina Spirit a little less strong.

Swale · 05-01-2021, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The biggest piece of info out of the Pat Day mile may be that Dream Shake ran huge. He was on the rail in the SA Derby. It's only one horse, but it's a bit of "evidence" that it wasn't a plus rail day. That makes the argument for Medina Spirit a little less strong.

I was watching for that as well. I re-watched the dirt races on Santa Anita Derby day. All the dirt races before the SA Derby showed a good rail, but the 2 races afterwards looked fair. So the question was - when did the track change?

Like Medina Spirit, Defunded was off the rail for the SA Derby. I guess he also backs up the "no rail bias" narrative off his no-threat fourth in the Pat Day, although today he was 6-7 wide throughout, so who knows?

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swale

Like Medina Spirit, Defunded was off the rail for the SA Derby. I guess he also backs up the "no rail bias" narrative off his no-threat fourth in the Pat Day, although today he was 6-7 wide throughout, so who knows?

I feel the same about it. He was well off the fast pace early, but then made what I thought was a premature move into the fast pace while very wide on the turn. So what looked like a potentially good set up wasn't all that good.

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 07:03 PM

BANG!

Good job Andy.

It's a pleasure to know that even when we both like the same horse, it wasn't too much weight!

thaskalos · 05-01-2021, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

BANG!

Good job Andy.

It's a pleasure to know that even when we both like the same horse, it wasn't too much weight!

Just a minute now. Andy said that he is picking the

to win...while you said that this horse would be "one of several that you would be using". Plus...you said that you were less than enthusiastic about the horse's prospects...due to that "crowded room". To say that "you and Andy both liked the same horse" is a bit of a stretch...IMO.