*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Wooooo....my 3rd day hitting a sweet pick-4 in a row. I made a program specifically for the pick-3's and 4's--called EXOTIC BETS!
They used to have a pick-4 contest here on this site (most of you will remember), that went on for the 2 or 3 months of the Aqueduct meet (weekends)
The last year of the contest, I was somewhere mid-pack in the standings, when I completed the Exotic Bets program, and put it to use. I started moving up from that day on, and although I didn't win, I cashed with a respectable 3rd place, out of maybe 100 players.

The way I play it now is, I use the "Ability" or "Power" rating and use all three selections. The only thing I do is eliminate one horse from the sequence, giving me a $27.00 Pick-4 ticket. Find a horse to eliminate that doesn't have a power number, and doesn't look all that great, anyway. You'll be saving about $13.50 per ticket, which adds up.

[NorCalGreg]

Here is the early Exotic Bets! pick-4:



See I was already eliminated from the late p-4. That was too much to ask for


*forgot to mention-YOURINDENIAL was the horse I eliminated from the p-4

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Wooooo....my 3rd day hitting a sweet pick-4 in a row. I made a program specifically for the pick-3's and 4's--called EXOTIC BETS!
They used to have a pick-4 contest here on this site (most of you will remember), that went on for the 2 or 3 months of the Aqueduct meet (weekends)
The last year of the contest, I was somewhere mid-pack in the standings, when I completed the Exotic Bets program, and put it to use. I started moving up from that day on, and although I didn't win, I cashed with a respectable 3rd place, out of maybe 100 players.

The way I play it now is, I use the "Ability" or "Power" rating and use all three selections. The only thing I do is eliminate one horse from the sequence, giving me a $27.00 Pick-4 ticket. Find a horse to eliminate that doesn't have a power number, and doesn't look all that great, anyway. You'll be saving about $13.50 per ticket, which adds up.

That's what it is all about right there.. Excellent Stuff!!

[oughtoh]

When your hot your hot. Keep it going.

[NorCalGreg]

Yes sir! Thanks Vinnie, Ed.

I don't see the "headbanger" emoji over there--->>>>

Hope Mike got rid of it--that thing is just irritating to me, anyway.

I forgot to enter the Mnr Horse Tourney exacta contest by post time--usually do okay there. I see Mr Replay "Armageddon" Randall cashed in the only contest I was in today.
I looked early on and was in 2nd place-very nice. This particular contest had a large payoff, with a ton of entries.

I checked later on...I had dropped to like 58th place LOL I thought I would see myself on top. Gotta give RR his propers for finishing in the money. There are some excellent players there you have to beat to get the cash.

Since I have a nice bankroll built up, think I'll continue concentrating on the pick-4's.
BTW...you can use Best-Five's contenders if you don't have Exotic Bets software. Or just use the top-2 power from Platinum and add your own pick to the mix.

Also, I'm hearing good things from LAD recently.

[ReplayRandall]

I'm knocking on wood and rubbing a rabbit's foot so I don't jinx you Greg....You are on a roll of maybe EPIC proportions....Don't be afraid to hit that repeat button when making those wagers....

LET'S GO!!...DO IT BIG!!...STREAK LIKE DiMAGGIO...

[NorCalGreg]

Thank you, Randall...you've always been a solid guy

I noticed Finger Lakes was running their usual assortment of short sprints, so let me see if my "speed blast" rating works on NY dirt. This is only a test:

3rd RICO CAPOTE 8-1
4TH FUN AND GAMES 2-1
5TH FOOLISH ACTIONS 8-1
6TH DON'T EATTHE APPLE 5-2
7TH PRANK CALL 6-1
8TH CARTERS GOT SASS 6-1

[NorCalGreg]

4 days in a row, and counting:

[oughtoh]

Get it while you re n a roll. Stay hot.

[Vinnie]

Mr. Mo is on a Roll.

[OzYank]

Nice work !!!!!!! Have you been looking at any other tracks using the same method?

[NorCalGreg]

Wish you would have called me, Vinnie...been working on finding the most financially efficient way to play these horizontals. I believe the most profitable (if, in fact any of these are long-term money makers)--will be Parx, Belmont, Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Tampa.

Most of the other tracks, the handle usually isn't very large. The way I came up with to play these smaller venues, is to cut the $27 ticket down to $8.00. The best way to do this--is to use JUST the top-2 ranked horses, eliminating altogether the 3rd choice. This gives you an $8 ticket at 50cents a throw.

Still...I didn't play my own method at Mountaineer tonight. Had the ticket all ready to go--at the last second I hit "clear". I had visions of hitting the pick-4...for a whopping $12 payoff. I wasn't going to risk even $8 to win maybe 10 bucks.

Wouldn't you know it? The very first time with the 2x2x2x2 ticket, it wins. I was going to see if you wanted to play that ticket, Vinnie.



As you can see, the 3rd pick was eliminated in the 4 races. I like playing an $8 ticket at the smaller pools. If it only pays $20 or $30...I can live with that. Just don't go thinking you've hit the motherlode--You may go a week without another win.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by OzYank

Nice work !!!!!!! Have you been looking at any other tracks using the same method?

I'm doing that exact research as we speak...I don't know what it is about Gulfstream, but nothing I have seems to be consistent there. I went back the past week and...bleh. Nothing much there. I'll continue to report results, wins and losses just the same. I hope you all do the same, so we can make some money!

[NorCalGreg]

Pace-View'er Steve B. sent this note:

"Thought I’d report that your L3SP column really does well at the small tracks that I play. Mostly CT and PEN. I play the top 2 in that column."

Makes sense...have to be careful, sometimes. I've found using top Last 3 Speed rating horses seem to be attractive to the late "Power bettors" that move the line way late on the tote board.

Or maybe I'm just imagining that-it may just appear to work that way. I know studies have been done on late tote-board moves...but I haven't seen anything definitive, so who knows?

This is something that I've wondered about ...a forum member whose handle I can't remember (it has something "Irish" in it) has an avatar of an old NY Met. There is nothing to indicate who this player is--looks late 60's, early 70's-ish.

I even cut out the image and did a google image-search on it-and came up empty:



LOL who is this guy? As a kid, I had many a baseball card but I'm drawing a blank on this one. He sort of looks like Jim Fregosi, but I'm not sure he ever played for the Mets.

My final guess: Jerry Koosman. That's all I got.

[Triple Nickle]

Ed Kranepool maybe