HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 9/28

[Nitro]

Good morning everyone!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.
I’m not going to be posting any live selections at Hong Kong for a number of reasons.
But I took a look at the M/L’s and the early odds and came up with some preliminary picks for each race. The live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. Later tote action (by 5 mins to post) may cause Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns. The most competitive races seem to be races #6, #7 & #8.

Good Luck today!

R#1 -1650M (8.25F) Turf......3-4 W/ 8-5-6-7 ........7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........1-2 W/ 5-7-9-4 ….......7:45 AM EST

R#3 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......3-4 W/ 8-12-5-6.......8:15 AM EST

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf..........1-3 W/ 8-10-6-4……...8:45 AM EST

R#5 - 1000M (5F) Turf..........2-3 W/ 8-5-10-6..........9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1800M (9F) Turf..........4-2 W/ 5-3-6-1….........9:45 AM EST

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........1-2 W/ 4-12-11-9.......10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf.....2-3 W/ 4-8-9-7 …........10:50 AM EST

[lamboguy]

in the long run, is there any difference whether you dutch or just bet the same amounts on all 3 horses? betting the same amounts eliminates any mistakes in bet size especially when there is late money moving the odds around.

if you believe in the top 3 picks that strongly, i would bet one unit on all of them, if it loses progress to 1.5 units, if that loses go to 2.5, if that loses go to 4.5 units. that would be 12 horses that you will have bet in total if you don't win right away. if you can't pick 1 in 12 you have no right playing the game to start out with. Hong Kong certainly has the pool sizes to enable you to make these progressive wagers without betting against yourself.

[kevb]

Hello HK 'cappers.

[kevb]

Is it just me or is the video from HK all screwed up?

[kevb]

R1:

WS Sets up for a closer, Jenny gives a thumbs up, a little excuse for last out.

[kevb]

Audio only for me-how my dad used to play to the races at the bookie shop.

[kevb]

R5:

WS

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

in the long run, is there any difference whether you dutch or just bet the same amounts on all 3 horses? betting the same amounts eliminates any mistakes in bet size especially when there is late money moving the odds around.

if you believe in the top 3 picks that strongly, i would bet one unit on all of them, if it loses progress to 1.5 units, if that loses go to 2.5, if that loses go to 4.5 units. that would be 12 horses that you will have bet in total if you don't win right away. if you can't pick 1 in 12 you have no right playing the game to start out with. Hong Kong certainly has the pool sizes to enable you to make these progressive wagers without betting against yourself.

Hey there Lamboguy. Sure there are many ways to skin a cat, but I prefer Dutching for the simple reason that no matter which one of the 3 wins I get the same return. The Dutching calculator I use provides instant results as to how much to bet, and most importantly what the Profit % will be. The odds are generally pretty stable by 3 mins to post. (Unless of course there’s some crazy late money coming in) and even if there was a slight change it wouldn’t impact the return too much because all the odds are relatively high anyway.

Through the first 5 races we’re 4 out of 5 with some great profit Dutching, but the exotics have been going well too!

[Nitro]

Well it turned out to be quite a morning! The early selections provided 4 of 8 nice Dutch win returns, and the live tote added 2 more among the last 4 races. The last 3 races were as competitive as we thought, but fortunately the tote analysis had 2 of them figured out perfectly.

So all in all it was another profitable day at my favorite racing venue.
Hope you made some money.

[Nitro]

Update:
If someone decided to play Dutch Win bets using the Top 3 early picks these were the results:

R#1 - 3-4 W/ 8-5-6-7.............. Results: 8-5-3-11
Dutch – 3 ( 9.9/1 ) – 4 ( 4.3/1 ) – 8 ( 6.1/1 ) - $67.00 – $67.00)

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
4.3	6.1	9.9	BET	PRF	
$11	$14	$22			
$22	$16	$11	$49	$67	137%
$116	$116	$116

R#2 - 1-2 W/ 5-7-9-4................... Results: 5-9-6-4
Dutch – 1 ( 7.6/1 ) – 2 ( 38/1 ) – 5 ( 4.2/1 ) - $270.00 – $337.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
4.2	7.6	38.0	BET	PRF	
$10	$17	$78			
$78	$47	$10	$136	$270	199%
$406	$406	$406

R#3 - 3-4 W/ 8-12-5-6....... Results: 8-5-12-3
Dutch – 3 ( 5.3/1 ) –4 ( 28/1 ) – 8 ( 10/1 ) - $262.00 – $599.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
5.3	10.0	28.0	BET	PRF	
$13	$22	$58			
$58	$33	$13	$104	$262	252%
$365	$365	$365

R#4 - 1-3 W/ 8-10-6-4......... Results: 3 -1-8-10
Dutch – 1 ( 7.8/1 ) – 3 ( 8.3/1 ) – 8 ( 5/1 ) -$68.00 – $667.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
5.0	7.8	8.3	BET	PRF	
$12	$18	$19			
$19	$13	$12	$43	$68	158%
$112	$112	$112

R#5 - 2-3 W/ 8-5-10-6......... Results: 7-5-6-11
Dutch – 2 ( 14/1 ) – 3 ( 8.7/1 ) – 8 ( 8.2/1 ) - ($77.00) – $522.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
8.2	8.7	14.0	BET	PRF	
$18	$19	$30			
$30	$28	$18	$77	$199	259%
$276	$276	$276

R#6 - 4-2 W/ 5-3-6-1......... Results: 8-1-4-7
Dutch – 4 ( 6.4/1 ) – 2 ( 39/1 ) – 5 ( 9/1 ) - ($154.00) – $368.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
6.4	9.0	39.0	BET	PRF	
$15	$20	$80			
$80	$59	$15	$154	$438	284%
$592	$592	$592

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 4-12-11-9.......... Results: 10-2-9-1
Dutch – 1 ( 4.9/1 ) – 2 ( 2.7/1 ) – 4 ( 9.7/1 ) - ($42.00) – $326.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.7	4.9	9.7	BET	PRF	
$7	$12	$21			
$21	$13	$7	$42	$37	88%
$79	$79	$79

R#8 - 2-3 W/ 4-8-9-7............ Results: 5-8-4-7
Dutch – 2 ( 43/1 ) – 3 ( 41/1 ) – 4 ( 26/1 ) - ($100.00) – $226.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
26.0	41.0	43.0	BET	PRF	
$54	$84	$88			
$44	$29	$27	$100	$1,088	1088%
$1,188	$1,218	$1,188

This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 4 out of 8 races (50%) produced a hypothetical profit of $226 after betting $705 or a 32% profit margin.

Some might scoff at posting 6 selections per race (in fields of 12 entries), but when played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.